Skip to main content
Log in

Interaction between financial risk measures and machine learning methods

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Computational Management Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to review the similarity and difference between financial risk minimization and a class of machine learning methods known as support vector machines, which were independently developed. By recognizing their common features, we can understand them in a unified mathematical framework. On the other hand, by recognizing their difference, we can develop new methods. In particular, employing the coherent measures of risk, we develop a generalized criterion for two-class classification. It includes existing criteria, such as the margin maximization and \(\nu \)-SVM, as special cases. This extension can also be applied to the other type of machine learning methods such as multi-class classification, regression and outlier detection. Although the new criterion is first formulated as a nonconvex optimization, it results in a convex optimization by employing the nonnegative \(\ell _1\)-regularization. Numerical examples demonstrate how the developed methods work for bond rating.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Altman EI (1968) Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. J Finance 23:589–609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Artzner P, Delbaen F, Eber JM, Heath D (1999) Coherent measures of risk. Math Finance 9:203–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bahrammirzaee A (2010) A comparative survey of artificial intelligence applications in finance: artificial neural networks, expert system and hybrid intelligent systems. Neural Comput Appl 19:1165–1195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baourakis G, Conisescu M, van Dijk G, Pardalos PM, Zopounidis C (2009) A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions. Comput Manag Sci 6:347–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennell JA, Crabbe D, Thomas S, Gwilym O (2006) Modeling sovereign credit ratings: neural networks versus ordered profit. Expert Syst Appl 30:415–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennett KP, Bredensteiner E (2000) Geometry in learning. In: Gorini C (ed) Geometry at work. Mathematical Association of America, Washington, DC, pp 132–145

    Google Scholar 

  • Bennett KP, Mangasarian OL (1993) Multicategory discrimination via linear programming. Optim Methods Softw 3:27–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Tal A, ElGhaoui L, Nemirovski A (2009) Robust optimization. Princeton Univ Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Bredensteiner EJ, Bennett KP (1999) Multicategory classification by support vector machines. Comput Optim Appl 12:53–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brodie J, Daubechiesa I, De Mol C, Giannone D, Lorisc I (2009) Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios. PNAS 106:12267–12272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bugera V, Konno H, Uryasev S (2002) Credit cards scoring with quadratic utility function. J Multi Criteria Decis Anal 11:197–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caramanis C, Mannor S, Xu H (2012) Robust optimization in machine learning. In: Sra S, Nowozin S, Wright SJ (eds) Optimization for machine learning. The MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 369–402

    Google Scholar 

  • Crook JN, Edelman DB, Thomas LC (2007) Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment. Eur J Oper Res 183:1447–1465

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Wang Y (2008) Two-sided coherent risk measures and their application in realistic portfolio optimization. J Banking Finance 32:2667–2673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delbaen F (2002) Coherent risk measures on general probability spaces. In: Advances in finance and stochastics. Essays in honour of dieter sondermann. Springer, Berlin, pp 1–37

  • DeMiguel V, Garlappi L, Nogales FJ, Uppal R (2009) A generalized approach to portfolio optimization: improving performance by constraining portfolio norms. Manag Sci 55:798–812

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erdal HI, Ekinci A (2012) A comparison of various artificial intelligence methods in the prediction of bank failures. Comput Econ. doi:10.1007/s10614-012-9332-0

  • Fishburn PC (1977) Mean-risk analysis with risk associated with below-target returns. Am Econ Rev 67:116–126

    Google Scholar 

  • Fisher T (2001) Examples of coherent risk measures depending on one-sided moments. Darmstadt University of Technology. Discussion Paper

  • Föllmer H, Schied A (2002) Convex measures of risk and trading constraints. Finance Stoch 6:429–447

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gotoh J, Takeda A (2011) On the role of norm constraints in portfolio selection. Comput Manag Sci 8:323–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gotoh J, Takeda A (2012) Minimizing loss probability bounds for portfolio selection. Eur J Oper Res 217:371–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gotoh J, Takeda A (2005) A linear classification model based on conditional geometric score. Pac J Optim 1:277–296

    Google Scholar 

  • Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J (2001) The elements of statistical learning-data mining, inference, and prediction. Springer, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang Z, Chen H, Hsu CJ, Chen WH, Wu S (2004)Credit rating analysis with support vector machines and neural networks: a market comparative study. Decis Supp Syst 37:543–558

    Google Scholar 

  • Konno H, Kobayashi H (2000) Failure discrimination and rating of enterprises by semi-definite programming. Asia Pac Financ Mark 7:261–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Konno H, Yamazaki H (1991) Mean-absolute deviation portfolio optimization model and its applications to Tokyo stock market. Manag Sci 37:519–531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krokhmal P (2007) Higher moment coherent risk measures. Quant Finance 7:373–387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mangasarian OL (1999) Arbitrary-norm separating plane. Oper Res Lett 24:15–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mangasarian OL (2000) Advances in large margin classifiers. In: Smola AJ, Bartlett PL, Schölkopf B, Schuurmans D (eds) Generalized support vector machines. The MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 135–146

    Google Scholar 

  • Markowitz HM (1959) Portfolio selection: efficient diversification of investments. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Ogryczak W, Ruszczýnski A (1999) From stochastic dominance to mean-risk models: semideviations as risk measures. Eur J Ope Res 116:33–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogryczak W, Ruszczýnski A (2002) Dual stochastic dominance and related mean-risk models. SIAM J Optim 13:60–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perez-Cruz F, Weston J, Hermann DJL, Schölkopf B (2003) Extension of the \(\nu \)-SVM range for classification. In: Suykens JAK, Horvath G, Basu S, Micchelli C, Vandewalle J (eds) Advances in learning theory: methods, models and applications, vol 190. IOS Press: Amsterdam, pp 179–196

  • Pflug GC (2000) Some remarks on the value-at-risk and the conditional value-at-risk. In: Uryasev S (ed) Probabilistic constrained optimization: methodology and applications. Springer, Berlin, pp 278–287

    Google Scholar 

  • Rockafellar TR, Uryasev S (2000) Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. J Risk 2:21–41

    Google Scholar 

  • Rockafellar TR, Uryasev S (2002) Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. J Banking Finance 26:1443–1471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schölkopf B, Smola AJ (2002) Learning with kernels-support vector machines, regularization, optimization, and beyond. The MIT Press, Massachusetts

    Google Scholar 

  • Schölkopf B, Smola AJ, Williamson RC, Bartlett PL (2000) New support vector algorithms. Neural Comput 12:1207–1245

    Google Scholar 

  • Shin KS, Lee TS, Kim H (2005) An application of support vector machines in Bankruptcy prediction model. Expert Syst Appl 28:127–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takeda A (2009) Generalization performance of \(\nu \)-support vector classifier based on conditional value-at-risk minimization. Neurocomputing 72:2351–2358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takeda A, Gotoh J, Sugiyama M (2010) Support vector regression as conditional value-at-risk minimization with application to financial time-series analysis. In: Proceedings of 2010 IEEE international workshop on machine learning for signal processing

  • Tax DMJ, Duin RPW (1999) Support vector domain description. Pattern Recognit Lett 20:1191–1199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas LC, Edelman DB, Crook JN (2002) Credit scoring and its applications. SIAM, Philadelphia

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Vapnik VN (1995) The nature of statistical learning theory. Springer, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y (2012) Robust \(\nu \)-support vector machine based on worst-case conditional value-at-risk minimization. Optim Methods Softw 27:1025–1038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xanthopoulos P, Pardalos PM, Trafalis TB (2013) Robust data mining. Springer, Berlin

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Yajima Y (2005) Linear programming approaches for multicategory support vector machines. Eur J Ope Res 162:514–531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu S, Fukushima M (2009) Worst-case conditional value-at-risk with application to robust portfolio management. Oper Res 57:1155–1168

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jun-ya Gotoh.

Additional information

The research of the first author is partly supported by a MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) 23710176. Also, the authors appreciate the comments by two anonymous referees and Dr. Pando G. Georgiev.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gotoh, Jy., Takeda, A. & Yamamoto, R. Interaction between financial risk measures and machine learning methods. Comput Manag Sci 11, 365–402 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10287-013-0175-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10287-013-0175-5

Keywords

Mathematics Subject Classification (2000)

Navigation