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Die volkswirtschaftlichen Effekte einer Umsetzung des Koalitionsvertrages

The Economic Effects of Implementing the Measures Envisaged in the Coalition Agreement

  • Analysen und Berichte
  • Makromodell
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Die im Koalitionsvertrag geplanten Maßnahmen werden nicht nur direkte Effekte haben, sondern über verschiedene Kanäle auch indirekt wirken. Der Autor simuliert mit Hilfe zweier Makromodelle, wie sich Arbeitslosigkeit, Staatsbudget, Wachstum und Preisindex entwickeln werden. Insgesamt würden die vorgesehenen Maßnahmen demnach die Wirkungen eines Konjunkturprogramms entfalten.


In 2013, the German political parties CDU, CSU and SPD agreed on a range of policy areas to form a “grand coalition”. The coalition agreement was broadly covered by the media, along with the financial burden imposed by and the usefulness of the envisaged measures. In this study, the effects of these measures on the German economy are analysed with the help of two medium-sized macroeconometric models. One significant finding is that the coalition agreement in sum has an outcome similar to an economic stimulus package and will enhance the GDP by about one additional percentage point after three years.

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Correspondence to Georg Quaas.

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Doz. Dr. habil. Georg Quaas nimmt eine Dozentur am Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung der Universität Leipzig wahr.

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Quaas, G. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Effekte einer Umsetzung des Koalitionsvertrages. Wirtschaftsdienst 94, 210–216 (2014).

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