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Early screening of ovarian cancer

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Abstract

The mortality of ovarian cancer is higher than any other female genital malignant tumors, while there exists a strong correlation between early-stage detection and cure for it. CA125 and HE4 are two most common and effective serum markers in recent screening research of ovarian cancer. This paper derives a sequential screening strategy for ovarian cancer by jointly modeling the longitudinal profiles of CA125 and HE4. We construct a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model with changepoint, and propose two approaches for diagnosis: the risk of cancer index and the hypothesis test on the true incidence time. We simulated a 7-year sequential screening research and compared with the standard approach based on a fixed cutoff level. Our approach achieves a 15% higher sensitivity for a fixed specificity, indicating that the sequential strategy combining multiple markers is more effective in the early-stage detection of ovarian cancer.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking Unviersity, Beijing, 100871, China

    Xiao Han & Xiang-zhong Fang

  2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Qingdao Unviersity, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Chen-chen Zou

Authors
  1. Xiao Han
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  2. Chen-chen Zou
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  3. Xiang-zhong Fang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiang-zhong Fang.

Additional information

Supported by the the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11171007) and Ph. D. Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (No. 20090001110005).

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Han, X., Zou, Cc. & Fang, Xz. Early screening of ovarian cancer. Acta Math. Appl. Sin. Engl. Ser. 33, 463–474 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10255-017-0674-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10255-017-0674-1

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