Abstract
This study investigates the rapid weakening of super-cyclone Amphan (2020) over the Bay of Bengal. Shortly after reaching its super-cyclone status, Amphan experienced rapid weakening. Satellite and in-situ observations are used to ascertain the influence of local sea surface temperature changes on the weakening of Amphan. Results showed that the onset of rapid weakening was triggered by its passage over the cold wake of amplitude ~ 1.5 °C induced by the cyclone itself. Analysis showed that the cooling started 2 days ahead of the actual arrival of the cyclone over this region. This ahead-of-the-eye cooling occurred in the right frontal region of the track spanning a horizontal scale of ~ 200 km. The large size of the Amphan and its slow translation speed (2 m/s) facilitated sea surface cooling ahead of its arrival. The shallow mixed layer (20 m) prevailed at this region enhanced cooling through vertical mixing. The analysis of the sea surface temperature shows that the ahead-of-the-eye cooling (1.5 °C) accounts to 39% of the total cooling (4 °C) induced by Amphan over the cold wake region. As the sea surface cooled, the latent and sensible heat fluxes dropped by 42% over the cold wake region reducing the energy supply to the cyclone. Thus, the negative feedback induced by the ahead-of-the-eye cooling contributed to the rapid weakening of super-cyclone Amphan over Bay of Bengal. This study presents for the first time in Indian Ocean, the intensity reduction of a super-cyclone after its passage over its own cold wake. The results presented here based on a real cyclone case point towards the importance of realistic representation of oceanic factors such as variations in the real-time local sea surface temperature and mixed layer depths. This is essential for the accurate forecasting of changes in the intensity of cyclones.
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All the data used in this study are publicly available, and the corresponding sources are mentioned in the manuscript.
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Acknowledgements
These Argo data were collected and made freely available by the International Argo Program and the national programs that contribute to it. (http://www.argo.ucsd.edu, http://argo.jcommops.org). The Argo Program is part of the Global Ocean Observing System. Moored buoy data is provided by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) and their support for providing data is greatly appreciated. I also thank the Ocean Observation Programme of the National Institute of Technology (NIOT), Chennai, for the deployment and maintenance of the moored buoy. The NOAA National Center for Environmental Information Climate Data Record is highly thanked for providing latent and sensible heat fluxes. SMAP sea surface wind data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems and sponsored by NASA Earth Science funding. Data are available at www.remss.com/missions/SMAP/winds.
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Chacko, N. On the rapid weakening of super-cyclone Amphan over the Bay of Bengal. Ocean Dynamics 73, 359–372 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01555-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01555-x