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Past and future evolution in the Thames Estuary

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Abstract

In order to manage estuaries effectively, it is important to be able to predict how they are likely to change in the future, both to natural and anthropogenic forcing. This paper looks at historical morphological development of the Thames Estuary, taking into account the effect of human intervention, and uses the ASMITA morphological model to predict the long-term evolution of the estuary into the future, assuming either historic rates of sea-level rise or accelerated sea-level rise. The historical sediment budget for the Thames Estuary was examined and source and sink terms, including fluvial sediment supply and historical dredging rates, were included in the ASMITA model. ASMITA predictions showed good overall agreement with the historical data, highlighting the benefits of detailed historical review and the inclusion of anthropogenic effects in the model. Future ASMITA predictions for the period 2000 to 2100 suggest that, under both historical and accelerated sea-level rise scenarios, the estuary will experience accretion, but, for the accelerated sea-level rise scenario, accretion will be at a slower rate than sea level rise. With accelerated sea-level rise, intertidal profiles were predicted to be up to 0.5 m lower with respect to high water.

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Acknowledgements

The work presented here was largely funded by the DEFRA FD2107 Project. We are also very grateful to the Port of London Authority for their cooperation and assistance.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. HR Wallingford Ltd., Howbery Park, Wallingford, OX10 8BA, UK

    Kate Rossington & Jeremy Spearman

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  1. Kate Rossington
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  2. Jeremy Spearman
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Correspondence to Kate Rossington.

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Responsible Editor: Alejandro Jose Souza

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Rossington, K., Spearman, J. Past and future evolution in the Thames Estuary. Ocean Dynamics 59, 709–718 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-009-0207-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-009-0207-4

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