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Volume index of incoming foreign orders. Up to and including 1990, the figures relate to West Germany, from 1991 onwards to Germany as a whole. For the industries considered, the shift in area does not lead to a break in the incoming-order figures because east Germany accounted for a minimal proportion of total foreign demand.
On the basis of the prices of overall turnover. The precise way in which the external value is calculated is described in the Monthly Report of the German Bundesbank, April 1989.
The now 15 Member States of the EU were incorporated into the analysis on their respective accession to the EU.
For example, an elasticity of incoming orders with respect to the real external value of −1 means that incoming foreign orders increase on average by 1% if the real external value of the D-Mark falls by 1%. If the elasticity figure is greater than unity, the reaction of incoming orders is considered to be “elastic”; if it is less than unity the reaction is “inelastic”.
The following branches also had an export share in excess of 30% in 1996: metal production and working, medical and precision mechanics, optics and other road vehicle construction. They were not considered here, however, due to the lack of available data over the entire period resulting from the change in the classification from the SYPRO to the WZ 93.
The figure relates to exports between January and April 1997, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
The demand for automobiles and parts comes from business, government and households. Consequently, it is overall economic performance abroad that is central for estimating the influence of economic developments abroad on the demand for German automobiles and parts.
In order to reveal more clearly the contrary movements in incoming foreign orders and the real external value of the currency, the incoming orders were adjusted in the figure to their linear deterministic trend.
Around two-thirds of the output of the chemical industry consists of inputs. Industry is its most important “consumer”. Accordingly, as with engineering, it is changes in industrial output abroad that are central for estimating the influence of economic developments abroad.
This branch accounts for more than 5% of German industrial exports. The products of the branch consist of investment and intermediate goods sold very largely to industrial firms. Consequently, it is industrial output abroad that is central for measuring the degree of dependence on economic developments abroad.
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Lucke, D. The degree of dependence of German exports on the real external value of the D-Mark. Economic Bulletin 35, 3–8 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10160-998-0007-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10160-998-0007-7