Reforms necessary if eastern enlargement of the EU is to be financed

Conclusion

The scenarios delineate a framework within which the financial consequences of eastern enlargement move against the background of more or less far-reaching reforms of internal EU policies. They clearly indicate that enlargement need not come to grief on the costs associated with it. The burden imposed on the budget can be kept within reasonable bounds given changes in internal EU policies that should be implemented in any case. If these policies are not modified, the analysis shows that structural policy is a more serious obstacle to accession than agricultural policy. If the capability of a national economy to absorb transfers efficiently is taken into account by introducing a fixed ceiling on EU support as a proportion of GDP, it would make a decisive contribution towards facilitating eastern enlargement. Irrespective of enlargement it is vital that further progress is made with agricultural policy reform. Agricultural policy remains the most important item of spending in the EU (15) budget. It is only here that the—inevitably substantial—resources required for eastern enlargement can be freed up.