Efficient management for the Hokkaido population of sika deer Cervus nippon in Japan: accounting for migration and management cost
We evaluated the fourth stage of the “Conservation and Management Plan for Sika Deer (Cervus nippon) in Hokkaido, Japan (CMPS4)”, focusing on its cost-effectiveness and sika deer migration between two management areas of eastern and western Hokkaido. To clarify these factors, we constructed a stochastic matrix population model that accounts for deer migration and several uncertainties. We assumed four different budget scenarios and simple rules regarding nuisance control, and simulated four alternative management strategies. In the stochastic simulation, we calculated the probability of successfully satisfying the population target given by the CMPS4, an average total actual management cost, and a cost-effectiveness index given four budget conditions of migration rate and budget allocation ratio. The simulation results suggest the following. First, the current management budget is so small that the probability of successfully satisfying the population targets in both areas is only 26–30 %. If the total budget remains small, it should be almost entirely invested in one area, regardless of migration situation, to maximize the probability of successfully meeting the target density in at least that area. However, these probabilities of success decrease with greater migration rate. Second, when the government invests more of its budget in the early management stage, the expected total actual cost decreases and the probability of management success increases. These findings represent cost-effective management strategies for satisfying the CMPS4 targets.
KeywordsCost-effectiveness analysis Matrix population model Stochastic simulation Wildlife management
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