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Predation as a probable mechanism relating winter weather to population dynamics in a North American porcupine population

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Population Ecology

Abstract

An abundance index of an eastern Quebec population of North American porcupines (Erethizon dorsatum) has cycled with superimposed periodicities of 11 and 22 years from 1868 to 2000. This cycle closely followed 11- and 22-year cycles in solar irradiance and local weather (e.g., winter precipitation and spring temperature), generating the hypothesis that solar activity may affect porcupine abundance through effects on local weather. We investigated the mechanisms linking porcupine abundance to local weather conditions using a 6-year study (2000–2005) involving individual mark-recapture, radio tracking, seasonal survival analyses and identification of mortality causes. Summer (May–August) survival was high and constant over the study period, whereas winter (August–May) survival was lower and varied during the duration of our study. Variations in local winter precipitation explained 89% of the variation in winter survival. Porcupine predation rates appeared strongly related to snow conditions; 95% of depredated porcupines were killed when snow was covering the ground, and predation rates were higher in years with increased winter precipitation. Our data thus support the hypothesis that changes in predation rates under different snow conditions were the mechanism relating climate to porcupine population dynamics, via modifications of the local predator–prey interactions and impacts on porcupine winter survival. Our study adds to the growing body of evidence supporting an effect of climate on predator–prey processes. Also, it identifies one possible mechanism involved in the relationship between solar irradiance and porcupine population cycles observed at this study site over a 130-year period.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the many field assistants and graduate students who participated in porcupine captures and observations. We thank the personnel from Parc National du Bic for their support during the project. Financial support was provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Fonds Québécois de la Recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies, the Canada Research Chairs Program, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, and the Marie-Louise Furnestin grant from Association Française des Femmes Diplômées des Universités. We also thank Anne Loison for statistical advice, and Gilles Gauthier and two anonymous reviewers for very useful comments on earlier versions of this work. Capture and handling techniques were approved by the McGill Animal Care Committee (2000–2001), the Comité de protection des animaux de l’Université du Québec à Rimouski (2002–2005), and the Société de la Faune et des Parcs, Gouvernement du Québec (2000–2005).

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  1. Chaire de Recherche du Canada en Conservation des écosystèmes Nordiques and Centre d’Études Nordiques, Département de Biologie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada

    Géraldine Mabille, Sébastien Descamps & Dominique Berteaux

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  1. Géraldine Mabille
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Correspondence to Dominique Berteaux.

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Mabille, G., Descamps, S. & Berteaux, D. Predation as a probable mechanism relating winter weather to population dynamics in a North American porcupine population. Popul Ecol 52, 537–546 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-010-0198-5

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