Abstract
Marine species will respond to climate change through distributional shifts to follow suitable habitats in the future. Here, we predicted the future potential global distribution of commercial fishes and shrimps using the MaxEnt modeling technique under future RCP scenarios. In total, 3741 geographical records of commercial fishes and shrimps were collected from online databases including GBIF (42%), OBIS (19%), literature (31%), and personal spatial records (8%) from Aug 2021 to Feb 2022. Our finding indicated values AUC (the average area under the curve) > 0.9 for all species showing the high performance of MaxEnt in predicting the actual distribution of species. Depth (57%) and sea-surface temperature (34%) were the most powerful environmental predictors in the future distribution of all species. Higher dominance of habitats with high suitability was observed for shrimps (36%) compared to fishes (14%). In all species, habitats with high suitability would be decreased until 2100 with a rate of 8–16% and 4–12% for fishes and shrimps, respectively. The Persian Gulf, coasts of North, East and West of Australia, and North of the Arabian Sea would be suitable habitats for species under future scenarios. The model predicted that 3 species (60%) will expand in their future distribution ranges with poleward shifting from 39 to 2188 km and the remaining (40%) will shrink in distribution ranges from 176 to 1260 km in the future. The findings highlighted the vulnerability of commercial fishes and shrimps under future climate changes and confirmed the prominent role of temperature in the redistribution of commercial fishes and shrimps to follow suitable habitats toward higher latitudes in the future.
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Data availability
Supporting material and outputs of MaxEnt are available at https://zenodo.org/record/5894034. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5894034.
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We would like to thank the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center and the National Elite Foundation for the financial supports of this project.
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Sana Sharifian: methodology, data analysis, writing and editing paper. Mohammad Seddiq Mortazavi and Seyedeh Laili Mohebbi Nozar: conceptualization and methodology. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Supplementary file1 (PNG 2012 kb) Fig S1. The jack-knife procedure indicating the relative importance of different environmental predictors in A) E. coioides B) L. johnii C) O. rober D) P. merguiensis and E) M. affinis under RCP scenarios
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Supplementary file2 (PNG 540 kb) Fig S2. The output of Kernel test showing the bimodal distribution of E. coioides (P=0.03)
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Supplementary file3 (PNG 425 kb) Fig S3. The output of Kernel test showing the bimodal distribution of L. johnii (P=0.03)
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Supplementary file4 (PNG 418 kb) Fig S4. The output of Kernel test showing the bimodal distribution of O. rober (P=0.03)
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Supplementary file5 (PNG 516 kb) Fig S5. The output of Kernel test showing the bimodal distribution of P. merguiensis (P=0.03)
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Supplementary file6 (PNG 434 kb) Fig S6. The output of Kernel test showing the unimodal distribution of M. affinis (P=0.24)
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Sharifian, S., Mortazavi, M.S. & Mohebbi Nozar, S.L. The ecological response of commercial fishes and shrimps to climate change: predicting global distributional shifts under future scenarios. Reg Environ Change 23, 64 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02052-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02052-z