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Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero-deforestation?

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Abstract

The Gran Chaco (Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Brazil) has turned into a global deforestation hotspot as a consequence of the agricultural expansion. These land use changes can lead to large socio-ecological conflicts. To reduce adverse effects, common regional planning is needed, which requires diagnostic and prospective information on the territorial dynamics. In this context, we analyzed possible land use change threats over time according to four scenarios of agricultural expansion under different degrees of market opening and state regulation (inertial scenario, high transformation scenario, low transformation scenario, and rigorous law enforcement). Additionally, we identified areas of high susceptibility to deforestation by combining the spatial information from each scenario. We found that the magnitude of the land use changes in the Gran Chaco varies across scenarios, with common spatial patterns of change in the areas adjacent to paddocks previously deforested. This work contributed to a better understanding of the land use change patterns and to envisioning the potential consequences of alternative future land use change scenarios in the Gran Chaco. Particularly, deforestation was analyzed to measure the gap between scenarios and the internationally assumed zero-deforestation objectives. We also identified the areas of greater susceptibility to deforestation where protection efforts should be prioritized when designing future land-use policies and forest governance systems. We demonstrated how scenario generation and simulation models can provide deep insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of deforestation hotspot regions for more sustainable land use planning.

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Funding

This project was funded by INTA (Project I205 “Alternativas socio-agro-ambientales: prospectiva, observatorios y ordenamiento territorial para la sustentabilidad agroalimentaria”, and the European Union (Project EUROCLIMA + : Project Forests, Biodiversity, and Ecosystems).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Estación Experimental Salta, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Ruta Nacional 68 km 172 (A4403AGE), Cerrillos, Salta, Argentina

    María Jesús Mosciaro & José Volante

  2. Estación Experimental Paraná, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Ruta Nacional 11 km 12.7 (E3100XAD), Oro Verde, Entre Ríos, Argentina

    Noelia Cecilia Calamari

  3. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral, CONICET, Río Gallegos, Argentina. Estación Experimental Santa Cruz (INTA), CC 332, Río Gallegos, Santa Cruz, Argentina

    Pablo Luis Peri

  4. NATIVA. Calle Avaroa 462, Entre Issac Attie Y Delgadillo, Barrio Las Panosa, Tarija, Bolivia

    Nelson Flores Montes

  5. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía No Convencional (INENCO), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Universidad Nacional de Salta (UNSa), Salta, Argentina

    Lucas Seghezzo

  6. Guyra Paraguay, Av. Cnel. Carlos Bóveda, Parque Asunción Verde, Viñas Cué, Paraguay

    Edder Ortiz

  7. Universidad Nacional de Asunción (UNA)-Paraguay. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Carrera de Ingeniería Forestal, Campus San Lorenzo, km10.5, San Lorenzo, Paraguay

    Larissa Rejalaga

  8. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. IPADS Balcarce (INTA-CONICET), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Balcarce, Argentina

    Paula Barral

  9. Grupo de Estudio de Agroecosistemas y Paisajes Rurales, Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Balcarce, Argentina

    Paula Barral, Sebastián Villarino & Matías Mastrangelo

  10. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Mar del Plata, Argentina

    Sebastián Villarino & Matías Mastrangelo

Authors
  1. María Jesús Mosciaro
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  2. Noelia Cecilia Calamari
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  3. Pablo Luis Peri
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  4. Nelson Flores Montes
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  8. Paula Barral
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  10. Matías Mastrangelo
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  11. José Volante
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Correspondence to María Jesús Mosciaro.

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Mosciaro, M.J., Calamari, N.C., Peri, P.L. et al. Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero-deforestation?. Reg Environ Change 22, 115 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5

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