Abstract
The dynamic relationships between climate change and armed conflict have been discussed at length, but there have been few studies that integrate dimensions of climate adaptation into the processes linking climate change to armed conflict. By using geospatial grids for climate change and armed conflict, and country-level climate vulnerability measures of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, we empirically examine the effects of climatic and non-climatic conditions on the probability of armed conflict in Africa. Results suggest that there are close links between climate drivers and armed conflict. Importantly, greater levels of adaptive capacity lead to a lower likelihood of armed conflict. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that enhancing adaptive capacity under conditions of climate pressure will reduce the probability of people taking up arms in response to water scarcity.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
References
Adams C, Ide T, Barnett J, Detges A (2018) Sampling bias in climate-conflict research. Nat Clim Chang 8:200–203. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0068-2
Adger WN (2006) Vulnerability. Glob Environ Chang 16(3):268–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006
Benjaminsen TA, Alinon K, Buhaug H, Buseth JT (2012) Does climate change drive land use conflicts in the Sahel? J Peace Res 49:97–111. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427343
Brooks N, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Glob Environ Chang 15:151–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006
Brown ME, Funk CC (2008) Food security under climate change. Science 319:580–581. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1154102
Brück T, d’Errico M, Pietrelli R (2019) The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict. World Dev 119:203–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.008
Buhaug H, Nordkvelle J, Bernauer T, Böhmelt T, Brzoska M, Busby JW, Ciccone A, Fjelde H, Gartzke E, Gleditsch NP, Goldstone JA, Hegre H, Holtermann H, Koubi V, Link JSA, Link PM, Lujala P, O'Loughlin J, Raleigh C, Scheffran J, Schilling J, Smith TG, Theisen OM,Tol RSJ, Urdal H, von Uexkull N et al (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. Clim Chang 127 : 391–397. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1
Burke MB, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema JA, Lobell DB et al (2009) Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:20670–20674. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907998106
Burke M, Hsiang SM, Miguel E (2015) Climate and conflict. Annu Rev Econ 7:577–617. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430
Busby JW, Smith TG, Krishnan N (2014) Climate security vulnerability in Africa mapping 3.0. Polit Geogr 43:51–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.10.005
Chen C, Noble I, Hellmann J, Coffee J, Murillo M et al (2015) University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index Country Index Technical Report. https://gain.nd.edu/assets/254377/nd_gain_technical_document_2015.pdf. Accessed 6 Sept 2017
Chen C, Hellmann J, Noble I, Berrang-Ford L, Regan PM et al (2018) A global assessment of adaptation investment from the perspectives of equity and efficiency. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 23:101–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9731-y
Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1130. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-386.1
Detges A (2016) Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa. J Peace Res 53(5):696–710. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316651922
Exenberger A, Pondorfer A (2013) Climate change and the risk of mass violence: Africa in the 21st century. Peace Econ Peace Sci Public Policy 19:381–392. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2013-0044
Feitelson E, Tubi A (2017) A main driver or an intermediate variable? Climate change, water and security in the Middle East. Glob Environ Chang 44:39–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.03.001
Fjelde H, von Uexkull N (2012) Climate triggers: rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Polit Geogr 31:444–453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2012.08.004
Füssel HM, Klein RIT (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Chang 75:301–329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3
Gemenne F, Barnett J, Adger WN, Dabelko GD (2014) Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda. Clim Chang 123:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1074-7
Ghimire R, Ferreira S, Dorfman JH (2015) Flood-induced displacement and civil conflict. World Dev 66:614–628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.09.021
Gleditsch NP (2012) Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. J Peace Res 49:3–9. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311431288
Hamlet AF (2011) Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:1427–1443. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1427-2011
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R (2012) Perception of climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109:14726–14727. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1205276109
Hendrix C (2017) The streetlight effect in climate change research on Africa. Glob Environ Chang 43:137–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.01.009
Hendrix CS, Salehyan I (2012) Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. J Peace Res 49:35–50. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311426165
Hsiang SM, Burke M (2014) Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say? Clim Chang 123:39–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3
Hsiang SM, Meng KC (2014) Reconciling disagreement over climate-conflict results in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:2100–2103. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1316006111
Hsiang SM, Burke M, Miguel E (2013) Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 341:1235367. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367
Ide T (2018) Climate war in the Middle East? Drought, the Syrian civil war and the state of climate-conflict research. Curr Clim Chang Rep 4(4):347–354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0115-0
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014. Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jelinski DE, Wu J (1996) The modifiable areal unit problem and implications for landscape ecology. Landsc Ecol 11:129–140. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02447512
Kelley CP, Mohtadi S, Cane MA, Seager R, Kushnir Y et al (2015) Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci 112:3241–3246. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112
Kim H, Marcouiller DW (2020) Making sense of resilience planning and policy in the pursuit of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Clim Dev 12(3):228–240. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1613215
Koubi V (2017) Climate change, the economy, and conflict. Curr Clim Chang Rep 3(4):200–209. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0074-x
Landholm DM, Pradhan P, Kropp JP (2019) Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics. Glob Environ Chang 56:86–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.006
Landis ST (2014) Temperature seasonality and violent conflict: the inconsistencies of a warming planet. J Peace Res 51:603–618. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343314538275
Lesk C, Rowhani P, Ramankutty N (2016) Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production. Nature 529:84–97. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16467
Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP et al (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152339
Mach KJ, Kraan CM, Adger WN, Buhanug H, Burke M et al (2019) Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 571:193–197. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16467
McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS et al (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Moser SC, Boykoff MT (2013) Successful adaptation to climate change: linking science and policy in a rapidly changing world. Routledge, London
Műller MF, Yoon J, Gorelick SM, Avisse N, Tilmant A et al (2016) Impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on land use and transboundary freshwater resources. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113:14932–14937. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1614342113
Nijssen B, O’Donnell GM, Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP (2001) Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Clim Chang 50:143–175. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010616428763
NOAA (2014) National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gisstemp.html. Accessed 12 Nov 2018
O’Loughlin J, Witmer FDW, Linke AM, Laing A, Gettelman A et al (2012) Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109:18344–18349. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1205130109
O’Loughlin J, Linke AM, Witmer FDW (2014) Modeling and data choices sway conclusions about climate-conflict links. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:2054–2055. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1323417111
Ochsner TE, Cosh MH, Cuenca RH, Dorigo WA, Draper CS et al (2013) State of the art in large-scale soil moisture monitoring. Soil Sci Soc Am J 77:1888–1919. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2013.03.0093
Raleigh C, Kniveton D (2012) Come rain or shine: an analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa. J Peace Res 49:51–64. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427754
Raleigh C, Choi HJ, Kniveton D (2015) The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa. Glob Environ Chang 32:187–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.005
Raudenbush SW, Bryk AS (2002) Hierarchical linear models: application and data analysis methods. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks
Regan PM, Meachum MS (2014) Data on interventions during periods of political instability. J Peace Res 51:127–135. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313505303
Regan PM, Norton D (2005) Protest, rebellion, and the onset of civil wars. J Confl Resolut 49:319–336. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704273441
Regan PM, Kim H, Maiden E (2019) Climate change, adaptation, and agricultural output. Reg Environ Chang 19(1):113–123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1364-0
Salehyan I, Hendrix C (2014) Climate shocks and political violence. Glob Environ Chang 28:239–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.007
Scheffran J, Brzoska M, Kominek J, Link PM, Schilling J et al (2012) Climate change and violent conflict. Science 336:869–871. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1221339
Schleussner CF, Donges JF, Donner RV, Schellnhuber HJ (2016) Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113:9216–9221. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1601611113
Schultz KA, Mankin JS (2019) Is temperature exogenous? The impact of civil conflict on the instrumental climate record in sub-Saharan Africa. Am J Polit Sci 63:723–739. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12425
Schweizer V (2019) Scenarios and decision support for security and conflict risks in the context of climate change. Curr Clim Chang Rep 5(1):12–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00123-0
Selby J (2019) Climate change and the Syrian civil war, Part II: The Jazira’s agrarian crisis. Geoforum 101:260–274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2018.06.010
Selby J, Dahi OS, Frohlich C, Hulme M (2017) Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited. Polit Geogr 60:232–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007
Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Chang 16:282–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008
Snijders T, Bosker RJ (1999) Multilevel analysis: an introduction to basic and advanced multilevel modeling. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, London
Sundberg R, Melander E (2013) Introducing the UCDP georeferenced event dataset. J Peace Res 50:523–532. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313484347
Theisen OM (2017) Climate change and violence: insights from political science. Curr Clim Chang Rep 3:210–221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0079-5
Theisen O, Holtermann H, Buhaug H (2011/12) Climate wars? Assessing the claim that drought breeds conflict. Int Secur 36:79–106. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00065
Thomas K, Hardy RD, Lazrus H, Mendez M, Orlove B et al (2019) Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: a social science review. WIREs Clim Chang 10:e565. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.565
Tir J, Stinnett DM (2012) Weathering climate change: can institutions mitigate international water conflict? J Peace Res 49:211–225. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427066
UNEP (2007) Sudan: post conflict environmental assessment. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi
US DoD (2011) Trends and implications of climate change for national and international security, office of the under secretary of defense, Washington, D.C.
van Weezel S (2019) On climate and conflict: precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya. J Peace Res 56:514–528. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319826409
von Uexkull N, Croicu M, Fjelde H, Buhaug H (2016) Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113(44):12391–12396. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607542113
Yang D, Choi HJ (2007) Are remittances insurance? Evidence from rainfall shocks in the Philippines. World Bank Econ Rev 21:219–248. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhm003
You L, Ringler C, Nelson G, Wood-Sichra U, Robertson R et al (2010) What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach. Food Policy 36:770–782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.09.001
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by Chinwe Ifejika Speranza
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Regan, P., Kim, H. Water scarcity, climate adaptation, and armed conflict: insights from Africa. Reg Environ Change 20, 129 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01713-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01713-7