Potential adaptability of marine turtles to climate change may be hindered by coastal development in the USA

Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B.; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Ceriani, Simona A.; Godfrey, Matthew H.; Gredzens, Christian; Helmers, David; Ingram, Dianne; Pate, Michelle; Radeloff, Volker C.; Shaver, Donna J.; Wildermann, Natalie; Taylor, Lotem; Bateman, Brooke L.

doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01689-4

ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Published: 19 August 2020

Potential adaptability of marine turtles to climate change may be hindered by coastal development in the USA

Mariana M. P. B. Fuentes ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2789-824X¹,
Andrew J. Allstadt²,
Simona A. Ceriani³,
Matthew H. Godfrey⁴,
Christian Gredzens^1,5,
David Helmers⁶,
Dianne Ingram⁷,
Michelle Pate⁸,
Volker C. Radeloff⁶,
Donna J. Shaver⁵,
Natalie Wildermann¹,
Lotem Taylor⁹ &
Brooke L. Bateman^6,9

Regional Environmental Change volume 20, Article number: 104 (2020) Cite this article

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Abstract

Marine turtles may respond to projected climatic changes by shifting their nesting range to climatically suitable areas, which may result in either increased exposure to threats or fewer threats. Therefore, there is the need to identify whether habitat predicted to be climatically suitable for marine turtle nesting in the future will be affected by future threats and hinder marine turtles’ ability to adapt. We modelled the geographic distribution of climatically suitable nesting habitat for marine turtles in the USA under future climate scenarios, identified potential range shifts by 2050, determined impacts from sea-level rise, and explored changes in exposure to coastal development as a result of range shifts. Overall nesting ranges of marine turtle species were not predicted to change between the current and future time periods, except for the northern nesting boundaries for loggerhead turtles. However, declines in climatically suitable nesting grounds were predicted; loggerhead turtles will experience the highest decreases (10%) in climatically suitable habitat followed by green (7%) and leatherback (1%) turtles. However, sea-level rise is projected to inundate 78–81% of current habitat predicted to be climatically suitable in the future, depending on species and scenario. Nevertheless, new beaches will also form, and suitable nesting habitat could be gained, with leatherback turtles potentially experiencing the biggest percentage gain in suitable habitat.

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Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, 117 North Woodward Avenue, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA
Mariana M. P. B. Fuentes, Christian Gredzens & Natalie Wildermann
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, DC, USA
Andrew J. Allstadt
Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
Simona A. Ceriani
North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, Weldon, NC, USA
Matthew H. Godfrey
Division of Sea Turtle Science and Recovery, Padre Island National Seashore, Corpus Christi, TX, USA
Christian Gredzens & Donna J. Shaver
SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WV, USA
David Helmers, Volker C. Radeloff & Brooke L. Bateman
Deepwater Horizon Gulf Restoration Office, Mexico City, Mexico
Dianne Ingram
South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Columbia, SC, USA
Michelle Pate
Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, NY, USA
Lotem Taylor & Brooke L. Bateman

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Mariana M. P. B. Fuentes
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Andrew J. Allstadt
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Simona A. Ceriani
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Matthew H. Godfrey
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Christian Gredzens
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David Helmers
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Michelle Pate
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Volker C. Radeloff
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Donna J. Shaver
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Natalie Wildermann
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Lotem Taylor
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Fuentes, M.M.P.B., Allstadt, A.J., Ceriani, S.A. et al. Potential adaptability of marine turtles to climate change may be hindered by coastal development in the USA. Reg Environ Change 20, 104 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01689-4

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Received: 03 April 2019
Accepted: 15 July 2020
Published: 19 August 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01689-4

Keywords

Sea turtles
Sea-level rise
Coastal development
Nesting habitat
Range shift
Climate change