Abstract
Research on the dynamics of vegetation distribution in relation to past climate can provide valuable insights into terrestrial ecosystems’ response to climate change. However, paleoenvironmental data sources are often scarce. The integration of ecological niche modeling and paleoecological data can fill in this knowledge gap. In order to elucidate the potential impacts of past and future climate change on the distribution of multiple vegetation types, we used 433 occurrence points of 100 species to build distribution models of five vegetation types occurring in southern Brazil, based on past, current, and future scenarios. Past models indicated the existence of a steppe domain during the Last Glacial Maximum, with forest expansion during the Mid-Holocene, which is consistent with paleoenvironmental data. The current distribution model identified a large area that was climatically suitable for ecotones in an important protection area threatened by agribusiness. The optimistic projections for 2070 predicted an expansion of mixed ombrophilous and seasonal semi-deciduous forests to a higher altitude and latitude, respectively. The pessimistic projections predicted a catastrophic scenario, with the extinction of the steppe and the savanna and a major increase of areas unsuitable for all vegetation types. The ombrophilous dense forest remained stable in all time scenarios, even in the pessimistic future projection. The results of the present study reinforce the need for the implementation of policies that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive global climate change, which may lead to the extinction not only of species but also of landscapes as we know them today.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aitken SN, Yeaman S, Holliday JA, Wang T, Curtis-McLane S (2008) Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evol Appl 1:95–111. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2007.00013.x
Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J Appl Ecol 43:1223–1232. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x
Andrade BO, Koch C, Boldrini II, Vélez-Martin E, Hasenack H, et al (2015) Grassland degradation and restoration: a conceptual framework of stages and thresholds illustrated by southern Brazilian grasslands. Nat e Conserv 13:95–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ncon.2015.08.002
Arruda DM, Fernandes-Filho EI, Solar RRC, Schaefer CEGR (2017) Combining climatic and soil properties better predicts covers of Brazilian biomes. Sci Nat 104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-017-1456-6
Barnola JM, Raynaud D, Korotkevich YS, Lorius C (1987) Vostok ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2. Nature 329:408–414. https://doi.org/10.1038/329408a0
Batista VG, Bastos RP (2014) Anurans from a Cerrado-Atlantic Forest ecotone in Campos Gerais region, southern Brazil. Check List 10:574–582. https://doi.org/10.15560/10.3.574
Behling H (1997) Late Quaternary vegetation, climate and fire history of the Araucaria forest and campos region from Serra Campos Gerais, Paraná State (South Brazil). Rev Palaeobot Palynol 97:109–121. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1519-69842012000400005
Behling H (1998) Late Quaternary vegetational and climatic changes in Brazil. Rev Palaeobot Palynol 99:143–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-6667(97)00044-4
Behling H, Negrelle RRB (2001) Tropical rain forest and climate dynamics of the Atlantic lowland, Southern Brazil, during the late Quaternary. Quat Res 56:383–389. https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.2001.2264
Behling H, Pillar VDP, Orlóci L, Bauermann SG (2004) Late Quaternary Araucaria forest, grassland (Campos), fire and climate dynamics, studied by high-resolution pollen, charcoal and multivariate analysis of the Cambará do Sul core in southern Brazil. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 203:277–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-0182(03)00687-4
Bellard C, Leclerc C, Leroy B, Bakkenes M, Veloz S, Thuiller W, Courchamp F (2014) Vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to global change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 23:1376–1386. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12228
Bianchi JS, Bento CM, Kersten R de A (2012) Epífitas vasculares de uma área de ecótono entre as Florestas Ombrófilas Densa e Mista, no Parque Estadual do Marumbi, PR. Estud Biol 34:37–44. https://doi.org/10.7213/estud.biol.6121
Blois JL, Williams JW, Fitzpatrick MC, Ferrier S, Veloz SD et al (2013) Modeling the climatic drivers of spatial patterns in vegetation composition since the Last Glacial Maximum. Ecography (Cop) 36:460–473. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07852.x
Boria RA, Olson LE, Goodman SM, Anderson RP (2014) Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models. Ecol Model 275:73–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.012
Boyce MS, Vernier PR, Nielsen SE, Schmiegelow FKA (2002) Evaluating resource selection functions. Ecol Model 157:281–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00200-4
Bradley BA, Wilcove DS, Oppenheimer M (2010) Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States. Biol Invasions 12:1855–1872. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-009-9597-y
Bueno ML, Pennington RT, Dexter KG, Kamino LHY, Pontara V, Neves DM, Ratter JA, de Oliveira‐Filho AT (2017) Effects of Quaternary climatic fluctuations on the distribution of Neotropical savanna tree species. Ecography (Cop) 40:403–414. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01860
Bustamante M, Nardoto G, Pinto A, Resende J, Takahashi F et al (2012) Potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning of Cerrado ecosystems. Braz J Biol 72:655–671. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1519-69842012000400005
Cardoso P, Erwin TL, Borges PAV, New TR (2011) The seven impediments in invertebrate conservation and how to overcome them. Biol Conserv 144:2647–2655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2011.07.024
Carmo MRB do, Assis MA de (2012) Caracterização florística e estrutural das florestas naturalmente fragmentadas no Parque Estadual do Guartelá, município de Tibagi, Estado do Paraná. Acta Bot Bras 26:133–145. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-33062012000100015
Carmo MRB do, Moro RS, Nogueira MKFS (2010) A vegetação florestal nos Campos Gerais. In: Patrimônio Natural dos Campos Gerais do Paraná. UEPG, Ponta Grossa
Carnaval AC, Moritz C (2008) Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. J Biogeogr 35:1187–1201. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2007.01870.x
Carvalho AF, Del Lama MA (2015) Predicting priority areas for conservation from historical climate modelling: stingless bees from Atlantic Forest hotspot as a case study. J Insect Conserv 19:581–587. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-015-9780-7
Caxambú MG, Geraldino HCL, Solvalagem ACM (2015) Ferns and lycophytes in two areas of ecotone between seasonal semideciduous forest and mixed ombrophilous forest in Campo Mourão, Paraná, Brazil. Open J For 05:195–209. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojf.2015.52018
Chen IC, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333:1024–1026. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206432
Clements FE (1905) Research methods in ecology. The University publishing company, Lincoln
Corlett RT, Westcott DA (2013) Will plant movements keep up with climate change? Trends Ecol Evol 28:482–488. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.04.003
Costa GC, Hampe A, Ledru MP, Martinez PA, Mazzochini GG et al (2018) Biome stability in South America over the last 30 kyr: inferences from long-term vegetation dynamics and habitat modelling. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 27:285–297. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12694
Cruz FW, Burns SJ, Karmann I, Sharp WD, Vuille M, Ferrarid JA (2006) A stalagmite record of changes in atmospheric circulation and soil processes in the Brazilian subtropics during the Late Pleistocene. Quat Sci Rev 25:2749–2761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.02.019
Da Silva PAH, Passos E (2010) A paisagem de Vila Velha e seu significado para a teoria dos refúgios e a evolução do Domínio Morfoclimático dos Planaltos das Araucárias. RA’E GA - O Espac Geogr em Anal:155–164. https://doi.org/10.5380/raega.v19i0.15983
Dass P, Houlton BZ, Wang Y, Warlind D (2018) Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California. Environ Res Lett 13:074027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39
de Lima RAF, Mori DP, Pitta G, Melito MO, Bello C, Magnago LF, Zwiener VP, Saraiva DD, Marques MCM, de Oliveira AA, Prado PI (2015) How much do we know about the endangered Atlantic Forest? Reviewing nearly 70 years of information on tree community surveys. Biodivers Conserv 24:2135–2148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-015-0953-1
Dettke GA, Orfrini AC, Milaneze-Gutierre MA (2008) Composição florística e distribuição de epífitas vasculares em um remanescente alterado de Floresta Estacional Semidecidual no Paraná, Brasil. Rodriguésia 59:859–872. https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-7860200859414
Diniz-Filho JAF, Loyola RD, Raia P, Mooers AO, Bini LM (2013) Darwinian shortfalls in biodiversity conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 28:689–695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.09.003
Ferro VG, Lemes P, Melo AS, Loyola R (2014) The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens atlantic forest tiger moths. PLoS One 9. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107792
Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence / absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38–49. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892997000088
Fritzsons E, Wrege MS, Mantovani LE (2018) Climatic aspects related to the distribution of Brazilian pine in the State of Santa Catarina. Floresta 48:503. https://doi.org/10.5380/rf.v48i4.53272
Gallardo B, Aldridge DC, González-Moreno P, Pergl J, Pizarro M et al (2017) Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 23:5331–5343. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13798
Gu F, Zonneveld KAF, Chiessi CM, Arz HW, Pätzold J et al (2017) Long-term vegetation, climate and ocean dynamics inferred from a 73,500 years old marine sediment core (GeoB2107-3) off southern Brazil. Quat Sci Rev 172:55–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.06.028
Harris RMB, Grose MR, Lee G, Bindoff NL, Porfirio LL et al (2014) Climate projections for ecologists. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 5:621–637. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.291
Harris RMB, Porfirio LL, Hugh S, Lee G, Bindoff NL et al (2013) To be or not to be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate. Ecol Manag Restor 14:230–234. https://doi.org/10.1111/emr.12055
Harrison S, Noss R (2017) Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia. Ann Bot 119:207–214. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcw248
Heller NE, Zavaleta ES (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142:14–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.006
Hewitt G (2000) The genetic legacy of the Quaternary ice ages. Nature 405:907–913. https://doi.org/10.1038/35016000
Higuchi P, da Silva AC, Budke JC, Mantovani A, da Bortoluzzi RL C et al (2013) Influência do clima e de rotas migratórias de espécies arbóreas sobre o padrão fitogeográfico de florestas na região sul do Brasil. Cienc Florest 23:539–553. https://doi.org/10.5902/1980509812338
Hortal J, de Bello F, Diniz-Filho JAF, Lewinsohn TM, Lobo JM et al (2014) Seven shortfalls that beset large-scale knowledge of biodiversity. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 46:523–549. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054400
IBGE (2012) Manual Técnico da Vegetação Brasileira. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE, Rio de Janeiro
Iganci JR, Heiden G, Miotto STS, Pennington RT (2011) Campos de Cima da Serra: the Brazilian Subtropical Highland Grasslands show an unexpected level of plant endemism. Bot J Linn Soc 167:378–393. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8339.2011.01182.x
IPCC, 2014 Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK and Meyer LA (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland
Jantz SM, Barker B, Brooks TM, Chini LP, Huang Q, Moore RM, Noel J, Hurtt GC (2015) Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation. Conserv Biol 29:1122–1131. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12549
Kaehler M, Goldenberg R, Evangelista PHL, Ribas ODS, Vieira AOS, et al (2014) Plantas vasculares do Paraná. Departamento de Botânica, Curitiba
Kark S (2017) Effects of Ecotones on Biodiversity. In: Reference Module in Life Sciences. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 142–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-809633-8.02290-1
Kark S, Allnutt TF, Levin N, Manne LL, Williams PH (2007) The role of transitional areas as avian biodiversity centres. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 16:187–196. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2006.00274.x
Keppel G, Mokany K, Wardell-Johnson GW, Phillips BL, Welbergen JA et al (2015) The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change. Front Ecol Environ 13:106–112. https://doi.org/10.1890/140055
Keppel G, Van Niel KP, Wardell-Johnson GW, Yates CJ, Byrne M et al (2012) Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 21:393–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00686.x
Lamsal P, Kumar L, Aryal A, Atreya K (2018) Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change. Ambio 47. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1017-z
Ledru MP, Rousseau DD, Cruz FW, Riccomini C, Karmann I et al (2005) Paleoclimate changes during the last 100,000 yr from a record in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest region and interhemispheric comparison. Quat Res 64:444–450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2005.08.006
Ledru MP, Salgado-Labouriau ML, Lorscheitter ML (1998) Vegetation dynamics in southern and central Brazil during the last 10,000 yr BP. Rev Palaeobot Palynol 99:131–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-6667(97)00049-3
Liu C, White M, Newell G (2013) Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data. J Biogeogr 40:778–789. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12058
Maack R (1948) Notas preliminares sobre clima, solos e vegetação do estado do Paraná. Arq Biol e Biotecnol 2:102–200
Maack R (2002) Geografia Física do Estado do Paraná, 3rd edn. Imprensa Oficial, Curitiba
Maia FR da, Goldenberg R (2014) Melastomataceae from the “Parque Estadual do Guartelá”, Tibagi, Paraná, Brazil: species list and field guide. Check List 10:1316. https://doi.org/10.15560/10.6.1316
Malcolm JR, Liu C, Neilson RP, Hansen L, Hannah L (2006) Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv Biol 20:538–548. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00364.x
Manish K, Telwala Y, Nautiyal DC, Pandit MK (2016) Modelling the impacts of future climate change on plant communities in the Himalaya: a case study from Eastern Himalaya, India. Model Earth Syst Environ 2:92. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0163-1
Marques MCM, Swaine MD, Liebsch D (2011) Diversity distribution and floristic differentiation of the coastal lowland vegetation: implications for the conservation of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Biodivers Conserv 20:153–168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-010-9952-4
Martins-Ramos D, Bortoluzzi RLC, Mantovani A (2010) Plantas medicinais de um remascente de Floresta Ombrófila Mista Altomontana, Urupema, Santa Catarina, Brasil. Rev Bras Plantas Med 12:380–397. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1516-05722010000300016
Merow C, Smith MJ, Silander JA (2013) A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography (Cop) 36:1058–1069. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x
Moro RS, Carmo MRB do (2010) A vegetação campestre nos Campos Gerais. In: Patrimônio Natural dos Campos Gerais do Paraná. UEPG, Ponta Grossa
Moro RS, Gomes IA, Pereira TK (2012) Selecting ecotonal landscape units on Meridional Plateau, Southern Brazil. Bosque (Valdivia) 33:23–24. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0717-92002012000300012
Murray-Smith C, Brummitt NA, Oliveira-Filho AT, Bachman S, Moat J, Lughadha EMN, Lucas EJ (2009) Plant diversity hotspots in the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. Conserv Biol 23:151–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01075.x
Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GAB, Kent J (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853–858. https://doi.org/10.1038/35002501
Newbold T, Hudson LN, Hill SLL, Contu S, Lysenko I et al (2015) Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature 520:45–50. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14324
Nolan C, Overpeck JT, Allen JRM, Anderson PM, Betancourt JL et al (2018) Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science 361:920–923. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360
O’Mara FP (2012) The role of grasslands in food security and climate change. Ann Bot 110:1263–1270. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcs209
Oliveira PTS, Nearing MA, Moran MS, Goodrich DC, Wendland E et al (2014) Trends in water balance components across the Brazilian Cerrado. Water Resour Res 50:7100–7114. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR015202
Paraná (2016) Assembleia Legislativa. Projeto de Lei No 527/2016. Altera os limites da APA da Escarpa Devoniana, na forma que especifica a presente Lei. http://portal.alep.pr.gov.br/modules/mod_legislativo_arquivo/mod_legislativo_arquivo.php?leiCod=66840&tipo=I. Accessed 3 Aug 2017
Pearson RG (2006) Climate change and the migration capacity of species. Trends Ecol Evol 21:111–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.022
Pearson RG (2007) Species’ distribution modeling for conservation educators and practitioners. Am Museum Nat Hist 1:1–50
Pecl GT, Araújo MB, Bell JD, Blanchard J, Bonebrake TC et al (2017) Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science 355:eaai9214. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aai9214
Pereira JBS, Labiak PH (2018) Checklist of ferns and lycophytes from the highlands of Pico Paraná State Park, Paraná, Brazil. Rodriguésia 69:301–307. https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-7860201869203
Peterson AT, Martinez-Meyer E, González-Salazar C (2004) Reconstructing the pleistocene geography of the Aphelocoma jays (Corvidae). Divers Distrib 10:237–246. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2004.00097.x
Peterson AT, Soberón J (2012) Species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling: getting the concepts right. Nat a Conserv 10:102–107. https://doi.org/10.4322/natcon.2012.019
Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Dudík M, Schapire RE, Blair ME (2017) Opening the black box: an open-source release of Maxent. Ecography (Cop) 40:887–893. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03049
Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
Porfirio LL, Harris RMB, Lefroy EC, Hugh S, Gould SF, Lee G, Bindoff NL, Mackey B (2014) Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change. PLoS One 9:e113749. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113749
Ritter LMO, Ribeiro MC, Moro RS (2010) Composição florística e fitofisionomia de remanescentes disjuntos de Cerrado nos Campos Gerais, PR, Brasil - limite austral do bioma. Biota Neotrop 10:379–414. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1676-06032010000300034
Roderjan CV, Galvão F, Kuniyoshi YS, Hatschbach GG (2002) As unidades fitogeográficas do estado do paraná, brasil. Ciência Ambient 24:75–92
Sala OE, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R et al (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770–1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
Seddon AWR, Macias-Fauria M, Long PR, Benz D, Willis KJ (2016) Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability. Nature 531:229–232. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16986
Selwood KE, McGeoch MA, Mac Nally R (2014) The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability. Biol Rev 90:837–853. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12136
Smith TB, Wayne RK, Girman DJ, Bruford MW (1997) A role for ecotones in generating rainforest biodiversity. Science 276:1855–1857. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.276.5320.1855
Sobral-Souza T, Lima-Ribeiro MS, Solferini VN (2015) Biogeography of Neotropical rainforests: past connections between Amazon and Atlantic Forest detected by ecological niche modeling. Evol Ecol 29:643–655. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10682-015-9780-9
Sobral-Souza T, Vancine MH, Ribeiro MC, Lima-Ribeiro MS (2018) Efficiency of protected areas in Amazon and Atlantic Forest conservation: a spatio-temporal view. Acta Oecol 87:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2018.01.001
Stärz M, Lohmann G, Knorr G (2016) The effect of a dynamic soil scheme on the climate of the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum. Clim Past 12:151–170. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016
Svenning JC, Fløjgaard C, Marske KA, Nógues-Bravo D, Normand S (2011) Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology. Quat Sci Rev 30:2930–2947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.06.012
Takeda IJM, Moro R, Kaczmarech R (1996) Análise florística de um encrave de cerrado no Parque do Guartelá, Tibagi, PR. Publ UEPG, CiBiolSaúde 2:21–31
Targulian VO, Krasilnikov PV (2007) Soil system and pedogenic processes: self-organization, time scales, and environmental significance. Catena 71:373–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2007.03.007
UNFCCC (2015) Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Report No. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/ Rev.1. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf. Accessed 24 June 2020
Urban MC (2015) Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348:571–573. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4984
Varela S, Lima-Ribeiro MS, Terribile LC (2015) A short guide to the climatic variables of the last glacial maximum for biogeographers. PLoS One 10:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0129037
Walther GR, Roques A, Hulme PE, Sykes MT, Pyšek P et al (2009) Alien species in a warmer world: risks and opportunities. Trends Ecol Evol 24:686–693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.008
Wang S, Xu X, Shrestha N, Zimmermann NE, Tang Z, Wang Z (2017) Response of spatial vegetation distribution in China to climate changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). PLoS One 12:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0175742
Wisz MS, Pottier J, Kissling WD, Pellissier L, Lenoir J, Damgaard CF, Dormann CF, Forchhammer MC, Grytnes JA, Guisan A, Heikkinen RK, Høye TT, Kühn I, Luoto M, Maiorano L, Nilsson MC, Normand S, Öckinger E, Schmidt NM, Termansen M, Timmermann A, Wardle DA, Aastrup P, Svenning JC (2013) The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling. Biol Rev 88:15–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-185X.2012.00235.x
Wu D, Zhao X, Liang S, Zhou T, Huang K, Tang B, Zhao W (2015) Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 21:3520–3531. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12945
WWF (2018) Living Planet Report - 2018: Aiming Higher. WWF, Gland
Zwiener VP, Padial AA, Marques MCM, Faleiro FV, Loyola R, Peterson AT (2017a) Planning for conservation and restoration under climate and land use change in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Divers Distrib 23:955–966. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12588
Zwiener VP, Padial AA, Vitule JRS, Grady CJ, Lira-Noriega A (2017b) Climate change as a driver of biotic homogenization of woody plants in the Atlantic Forest. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 27:298–309. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12695
Acknowledgments
We are thankful to the thousands of researchers who contributed directly or indirectly to the Brazilian Flora 2020 and to biodiversity databases such as GBIF and SpeciesLink.
Funding
This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brazil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Communicated by Wolfgang Cramer
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Trindade, W.C.F., Santos, M.H. & Artoni, R.F. Climate change shifts the distribution of vegetation types in South Brazilian hotspots. Reg Environ Change 20, 90 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01686-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01686-7