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Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to lead to more vigorous environmental changes, including soil erosion. As a reliable tool for predicting the impact of changes in climate and land use, the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model, integrated with the EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) regional climate model, was used with the aim of quantifying erosion intensity in the Vranjska Valley region by the end of the twenty-first century. The effect of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns in the Vranjska Valley will lead to a 41.84% reduction in average soil loss by the end of the century when compared to the baseline period. The main reason for this decrease in the soil erosion rate in the second half of the century is a 17.19% fall in the total amount of precipitation, the impact of which will inevitably lead to changes in natural and artificial ecosystems. Furthermore, the results of this study highlight the advantages of an integrated approach, combining the effects of climate change and types of land use, for a better and more realistic estimate of future changes in soil erosion.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (grants no. 173018 and III 043007).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology, Institute for Biological Research ‘Siniša Stanković’, University of Belgrade, Bulevar despota Stefana 142, Belgrade, 11060, Serbia

    Velјko Perović, Dragan Čakmak, Miroslava Mitrović & Pavle Pavlović

  2. Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, Kneza Višeslava 1, Belgrade, 11030, Serbia

    Ratko Kadović

  3. Institute of meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, Dobracina 16, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia

    Vladimir Djurdjević

  4. Institute of Forestry, Kneza Viseslava 3, Belgrade, 11030, Serbia

    Sonja Braunović

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  1. Velјko Perović
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  2. Ratko Kadović
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Correspondence to Velјko Perović.

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Perović, V., Kadović, R., Djurdjević, V. et al. Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia. Reg Environ Change 19, 1035–1046 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1456-x

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