Skip to main content

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Abstract

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a + 1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a > 2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than + 1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the + 1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a + 1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

References

  1. Adger WN (2003) Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Econ Geogr 79(4):387–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2003.tb00220.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Adger WN, Agrawala S, Mirza M, Conde C, O'Brien K, Pulhin J, Pulwarty RS, Smit B, Takahashi K (2007) Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. p. 717–743 in IPCC, editor. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  3. Barker D (1993) Dualism and disasters on a typical island: constraints on agricultural development in Jamaica. Tijdschr Econ Soc Geogr 84(5):332–340. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9663.1993.tb00662.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Barker D (2012) Caribbean agriculture in a period of global change: vulnerabilities and opportunities. Caribb Stud 40(2):41–61. https://doi.org/10.1353/crb.2012.0027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Barker D, Beckford CL (2006) Plastic yam and plastic yam sticks: perspectives on indigenous technical knowledge among Jamaican farmers. Tijdschr Econ Soc Geogr 97(5):535–546. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.14679663.2006.00362.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Barnston AG, Li S, Mason SJ, DeWitt DG, Goddard L, Gong X (2010) Verification of the first 11 years of IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 49(3):493–520. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2325.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Beckford C, Barker D (2007) The role and value of local knowledge in Jamaican agriculture: adaptation and change in small-scale farming. Geogr J 173(2):118–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2007.00238.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Beckford C, Barker D, Bailey S (2007) Adaptation, innovation and domestic food production in Jamaica: Some examples of survival strategies of small-scale farmers. Singap J Trop Geogr 28(3):273–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Beckford CL, Campbell DR (2013) Domestic food production and food security in the Caribbean: building capacity and strengthening local food production systems. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137296993

    Book  Google Scholar 

  10. Beckford CL, Norman A (2016) Climate change and quality of planting materials for domestic food production: tissue culture and protected agriculture. In: Beckford CL, Rhiney K (eds) Globalization, agriculture and food in the Caribbean: climate change, gender and geography. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp 189–216

    Google Scholar 

  11. Beckford CL, Rhiney K (2016) Future of food and agriculture in the Caribbean in the context of climate change and globalization: where do we go from here? In: Beckford CL, Rhiney K (eds) Globalization, agriculture and food in the Caribbean: climate change, gender and geography. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp 267–295

    Google Scholar 

  12. Beebe SE, Ramirez J, Jarvis A, Rao I, Mosquera G, Bueno J, Blair M (2011) Genetic improvement of common beans and the challenges of climate change. In: Yadav SS, Redden RJ, Hatfield JL et al (eds) Crop adaptation to climate change. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, pp 356–369. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470960929.ch25

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  13. Campbell D, Beckford CL (2009) Negotiating uncertainty: Jamaican small farmers’ adaptation and coping strategies, before and after hurricanes—a case study of Hurricane Dean. Sustainability 1(4):1366–1387. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1041366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Campbell D, Barker D, McGregor DFM (2011a) Dealing with drought: small farmers and environmental hazards in southern St Elizabeth, Jamaica. Appl Geogr 13(1):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.03.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Campbell J, Taylor MA, Stephenson TS, Watson RA, White FS (2011b) Future climate of the Caribbean from a regional climate model. Int J Climatol 31(12):1866–1878. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S, Simelton E, Fraser E (2009) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J Exp Bot 60(10):2775–2789. https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp062

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Chen AA, Taylor MA (2002) Investigating the link between early season Caribbean rainfall and the El Nino + 1 year. Int J Climatol 22:87–106. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.711

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Chen A, Taylor M, Stephenson T, Batchelor T (2009) Modelling needs for small islands based on Jamaican scenarios. Paper presented at Jamaica Institute of Environmental Professionals (JIEP) 4th Conference on the Environment: Climate Change-Caribbean Response. Kingston, Jamaica

  19. Church JA, White NJ, Coleman R, Lambeck K, Mitrovica JX (2004) Estimates of the regional distribution of sea-level rise over the 1950–2000 period. J Clim 17:2609–2625. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Constable A (2016) Observations, perceptions, and responses to climate change and variability among small farmers in Sherwood Content, Trelawny, Jamaica. In: Beckford CL, Rhiney K (eds) Globalization, agriculture and food in the Caribbean: climate change, gender and geography. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp 217–242

    Google Scholar 

  21. Curtis S, Gamble DW, Popke J (2014) Sensitivity of crop water need to 2071–95 projected temperature and precipitation changes in Jamaica. Earth Interact 18(12):1–17. https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-14-0001.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Delerce S, Dorado H, Grillon A, Rebolledo MC, Prager SD, Patiño VH, Varón GG, Jiménez D, Wang Z (2016) Assessing weather-yield relationships in rice at local scale using data mining approaches. PLOS ONE 11(8):e0161620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Dessai S, Hulme M (2004) Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Clim Pol 4:107–128. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2004.9685515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Dessai S, Hulme M, Lempert R, Pielke R Jr (2009) Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate? Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 90(13):111–112. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009EO130003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Eitzinger A, Laderach P, Gordon J, Benedikter A, Quiroga A, Pantoja A, Bruni M (2013) Crop suitability and climate change in Jamaica: impacts on farmers and the supply chain to the hotel industry. Caribb Geogr 18(1):20–38

    Google Scholar 

  26. Eitzinger A, Farrell AD, Rhiney K, Carmona S, van Loosen I, Taylor M (2015a) Trinidad and Tobago: assessing the impact of climate change on cocoa and tomato, CIAT Policy Brief No. 27. Cali, Colombia, Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)

  27. Eitzinger A, Rhiney K, Farrell AD, Carmona S, van Loosen I, Taylor M (2015b) Jamaica: assessing the impact of climate change on cocoa and tomato, CIAT Policy Brief No. 28. Cali, Colombia, Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)

  28. FAO (2000) Ecocrop. http://ecocrop.fao.org. Accessed 20 Jun 2018

  29. Farrell AD (2014) Plant response to high temperatures. In: Munns R, Schmidt S, Beveridge C (eds) Plants in action, 2nd edn. Australian Society of Plant Scientists, New Zealand Society of Plant Biologists, and New Zealand Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Science, New Zealand

    Google Scholar 

  30. Farrell AD, Rhiney K, Eitzinger A, Umaharan P (2018) Climate adaptation in a minor crop species: is the cocoa breeding network prepared for climate change? Agroecol Sust Food 42:1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2018.1448924

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Feller U (2016) Drought stress and carbon assimilation in a warming climate: reversible and irreversible impacts. J Plant Physiol 203:84–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jplph.2016.04.002

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Feller U, Vaseva II (2014) Extreme climatic events: impacts of drought and high temperature on physiological processes in agronomically important plants. Front Environ Sci 2:1–17. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Fick SE, Hijmans RJ (2017) Worldclim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 37(12):4302–4315. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Food and Agriculture Organization (2010) Agricultural disaster risk management plan-Jamaica. FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  35. Friedl MA, Sulla-Menashe D, Tan B, Schneider A, Ramankutty N, Sibley A, Huang X (2010) MODIS collection 5 global land cover: algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets. Remote Sens Environ 114:168–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Gamble DW (2009) Caribbean vulnerability: development of an appropriate climatic framework. In: DFM MG, Dodman D, Barker D (eds) Global change and Caribbean vulnerability: environment, economy and society at risk? The University of the West Indies Press, Kingston, pp 22–46

    Google Scholar 

  37. Gamble DW, Curtis S (2008) Caribbean precipitation: review, model, and prospect. Prog Phys Geogr 23:265–276. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133308096027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Gamble DW, Campbell D, Allen T, Barker D, Curtis S, McGregor D, Popke J (2010) Climate change, drought, and Jamaican agriculture: local knowledge and the climate record. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 100(4):880–893. https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2010.497122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Glenn E, Comarazamy DJ, González JE, Smith T (2015) Detection of recent regional sea surface temperature warming in the Caribbean and surrounding region. Geophys Res Lett 42(16):6785–6792. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Gregory PJ, Ingram JSI, Brklacich M (2005) Climate change and food security. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 360(1463):2139–2148. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1745

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Guido Z, Finan T, Rhiney K, Roundtree V, Johnson E, McCook G (2017) The stresses and dynamics of smallholder coffee systems in Jamaica’s Blue Mountains: a case for the potential role of climate services. Clim Chang 147(1–2):253–266. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2125-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Hall TC, Sealy AM, Stephenson TS, Kuusunoki S, Taylor M, Chen A, Kitoh A (2013) Future climate of the Caribbean from a super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Theor Appl Climatol 113:271–287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0779-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Harrison S, Stainforth D (2009) Predicting climate change: lessons from reductionism, emergence and the past. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 90(13):111–112. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009EO130004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Harvey CA, Chacón M, Donatti CI, Garen E, Hannah L, Andrade A, Bede L, Brown D, Chara J, Clement C, Wollenberg E, Gray E, Hoang MH, Minang P, Seeberg-Elverfeldt C, Semroc B, Shames S, Smukler S, Somarriba E, Torquebiau E, van Etten J (2014) Climate-smart landscapes: opportunities and challenges for integrating adaptation and mitigation in tropical agriculture. Conserv Lett 7(2):77–90. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Hijmans RJ, Graham CH (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Glob Chang Biol 12(12):2272–2281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Hijmans RJ, Guarino L, Cruz M, Rojas E (2001) Computer tools for spatial analysis of plant genetic resources data. 1. DIVA-GIS. Plant Genet Resour Newsl 127:15–19

    Google Scholar 

  47. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25(15):1965–1978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Holdschlag A, Ratter BMW (2016) Caribbean island states in a social-ecological panarchy? Complexity theory, adaptability and environmental knowledge systems. Anthropocene 13:80–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2016.03.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  50. Janssen MA, Schoon ML, Ke W, Börner K (2006) Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change. Glob Environ Chang 16(3):240–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Jarvis A, Ramirez-Villegas J, Campo BVH, Navarro-Racines C (2012) Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation? Trop Plant Biol 5(1):9–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12042-012-9096-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Jones PG, Thornton PK (2003) The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Glob Environ Chang 13(1):51–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00090-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Karmalkar AV, Bradley RS, Diaz HF (2011) Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections. Clim Dyn 37:605–629. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1099-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Karmalkar AV, Campbell J, Stephenson TS, New MG (2013) A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean. Atmosfera 26(2):283–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0187-6236(13)71076-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Kelman I (2014) No change from climate change: vulnerability and small island developing states. Geogr J 180(2):120–129. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Khoury CK, Castaneda-Alvarez NP, Achicanoy HA, Sosa CC, Bernau V, Kassa MT, Norton SL, van der Maesen LJG, Upadhyaya HD, Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Struik PC (2015) Crop wild relatives of pigeonpea [Cajunus cajan (L.) Millsp.]: distributions, ex situ conservation status, and potential genetic resources for abiotic stress tolerance. Biol Conserv 184(2015): 259–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.01.032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Knudson C (2016) The insurance trap: banana farming in Dominica after Hurricane Hugo. In: Barker D, McGregor D, Rhiney K, Edwards T (eds) Global change and the Caribbean: adaptation and resilience. The University of the West Indies Press, Kingston, pp 53–66

    Google Scholar 

  58. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Long SP, Ort DR (2010) More than taking the heat: crops and global change. Curr Opin Plant Biol 13(3):240–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Mace MJ, Verheyen R (2016) Loss, damage and responsibility after COP21: all options open for the Paris Agreement. Review of European, Comparative and International Environmental Law 25(2):197–214. https://doi.org/10.1111/reel.12172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Mcgregor DFM, Barker D, Campbell D (2009) Environmental change and Caribeban food security: recent hazard impacts and domestic food production in Jamaica. In: DFM MG, Dodman D, Barker D (eds) Global change and Caribbean vulnerability: environment, economy and society at risk? The University of the West Indies Press, Kingston, Jamaica, pp 197–217

    Google Scholar 

  62. Mighty M (2016) The Jamaican coffee industry: challenges and responses to increased global competition. In: Beckford LC, Rhiney K (eds) Globalization, agriculture and food in the Caribbean: climate change, gender and geography. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp 129–153. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-53837-6_6

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  63. Mimura N, Nurse L, McLean RF, Agard J, Briguglio L, Lefale P, Payet R, Sem G (2007) Small islands. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 687–716

    Google Scholar 

  64. Mintz S (1985) From plantations to peasantries in the Caribbean: Caribbean contours. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD

    Google Scholar 

  65. Moulton AA, Popke J (2016) Greenhouse governmentality: protected agriculture and the changing biopolitical management of agrarian life in Jamaica. Environment and Planning D: Society and Space 35(4):714–732. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263775816679669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  66. Moulton AA, Popke J, Curtis S, Gamble DW, Poore S (2015) Water management strategies and climate adaptation: lessons learned from the 2014 drought in Jamaica. Caribb Geogr 20:60–73

    Google Scholar 

  67. Müller C (2013) African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture. Annu Rev Nutr 33(1):395–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Nankishore A, Farrell AD (2016) The response of contrasting tomato genotypes to combined heat and drought stress. J Plant Physiol 202:75–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jplph.2016.07.006

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Nelson M, Zak K, Davine T, Pau S (2016) Climate change and food systems research: current trends and future directions. Geography Compass 10(10):414–428. https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  70. Nkemdirim LC (1979) Spatial and seasonal distribution of rainfall and runoff in Jamaica. Geogr Rev 69(3):288–301. https://doi.org/10.2307/214886

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Nurse LA, McLean RF, Agard J, Briguglio LP, Duvat-Magnan V, Pelesikoti N, Tompkins E, Webb A (2014) Small islands. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds.) Climate Change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1613–1654

  72. Ostrom E (2009) A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science 325(5939):419–422. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172133

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  73. Ovalle-Rivera O, Laderach P, Brunn C, Obersteiner M, Schroth G (2015) Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change. PLoS One 10(4):e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Palanisamy H, Becker M, Meyssignac B, Henry O, Cazenave A (2012) Regional sea level change and variability in the Caribbean Sea since 1950. Journal of Geodetic Science 2(2):125–133. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10156-011-0029-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Poore S, Moulton AA, Gamble DW, Curtis S, Popke J (2016) The 2014 Jamaican drought: climate change or interannual climate variability? In: Barker D, McGregor D, Rhiney K, Edwards T (eds) Global change and the Caribbean: adaptation and resilience. The University of the West Indies Press, Kingston, Jamaica, pp 43–51

    Google Scholar 

  76. Popke J, Curtis S, Gamble DW (2015) A social justice framing of climate change discourse and policy: adaptation, resilience and vulnerability in a Jamaican agricultural landscape. Geoforum 73(1):70–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.11.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ, Cochrane K, Howden SM, Iqbal MM, Lobell DB, Travasso MI (2014) Food security and food production systems. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds.) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 485–533

  78. Powlson DS, Gregory PJ, Whalley WR, Quinton JN, Hopkins DW, Whitmore AP, Hirsch PR, Goulding KWT (2011) Soil management in relation to sustainable agriculture and ecosystem services. Food Policy 36(1):S72–S87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2010.11.025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Pulwarty RS, Nurse LA, Trotz UO (2010) Caribbean islands in a changing climate. Environment 52(6):16–27

    Google Scholar 

  80. Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Laderach P (2013a) Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: the EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology 170:67–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  81. Ramirez-Villegas J, Challinor AJ, Thornton PK, Jarvis A (2013) Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research. Environ Res Lett 8(2):024018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  82. Rankine DR, Cohen JE, Taylor MA, Coy AD, Simpson LA, Stephenson T, Lawrence JL (2015) Parameterizing the FAO AquaCrop model for rainfed and irrigated field-grown sweet potato. Agron J 107:375–387. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj14.0287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  83. Rauscher SA, Giorgi F, Diffenbaugh NS, Seth A (2008) Extension and intensification of the Meso-American mid-summer drought in the twenty-first century. Clim Dyn 31:551–571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0359-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  84. Reynolds M, Manes Y, Rebetzke G (2012) In: Reynolds M, Pask A, Mullan D (eds) Application of physiology in breeding for heat and drought stress. Physiological breeding. I: Interdisciplinary approaches to improve crop adaptation. CIMMYT, Mexico

    Google Scholar 

  85. Rhiney K (2009) Forging new linkages in a changing global economy? The case of cooperatives and their link with the Negril tourism industry, Jamaica. Caribbean Geography 15(2):142–159

    Google Scholar 

  86. Rhiney K (2015) Geographies of vulnerability in a changing climate: lessons from the Caribbean. Geography Compass 9(3):97–114. https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  87. Rhiney K, Campbell D, Barker D (2016) Geographies of vulnerability and resilience of rural farming communities in Jamaica to climate variability and change: a comparative analysis. In: Barker D, McGregor D, Rhiney K, Edwards T (eds.) Global change and the Caribbean: adaptation and resilience. Kingston, Jamaica: The University of the West Indies Press, pp. 89–114

    Google Scholar 

  88. Rhiney K, Eitzinger A, Farrell AD, Taylor MA (2017) Assessing the vulnerability of Caribbean farmers to climate change impacts: a comparative study of cocoa farmers in Jamaica and Trinidad. In: Thomas-Hope E (ed) Climate change and food security: Africa and the Caribbean. Routledge, London and New York, pp 59–69. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315469737

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  89. Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho C, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafaj P (2011) RCP 8.5—a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang 109(1–2):33–57. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  90. Richards J, Madramootoo CA, Goyal MK, Trotman A (2013) Application of the standardized precipitation index and normalized difference vegetation index for evaluation of irrigation demands at three sites in Jamaica. J Irrig Drain Eng 139(11):922–932. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  91. Rippke U, Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Vermeulen SJ, Parker L, Mer F, Diekkrüger B, Challinor AJ, Howden M (2016) Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture. Nat Clim Chang 6(6):605–609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  92. Robinson S (2017) Climate change adaptation trends in small island developing states. Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 22(4):669–691. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9693-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  93. Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khabarov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh TAM, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang H, Jones JW (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(9):3268–3273

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  94. Schaeffer M, Rogelj J, Roming N, Sferra F, Hare B, Serdeczny O (2015) Feasability of limiting warming to 1.5 and 2 °C. Climate Analytics, 20. Retrieved from http://climateanalytics.org/files/feasibility_ 1o5c_2c.pdf

  95. Schafleitner R, Ramirez J, Jarvis A, Evers D, Gutierrez R, Scurrah M (2011) Adaptation of the potato crop to changing climates. In: Yadav S, Redden RJ, Hatfield J et al (eds) Crop adaptation to climate change. Wiley- Blackwell, Oxford, pp 287–297. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470960929.ch20

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  96. Schleussner C-F, Lissner TK, Fischer EM, Wohland J, Perrette M, Golly A, Rogelj J, Childers K, Schewe J, Frieler K, Mengel M, Schaeffer M (2016) Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth System Dynamics 7(2):327–351. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  97. Siebers MH, Slattery RA, Yendrek CR, Locke AM, Drag D, Ainsworth EA, Bernacchi CJ, Ort DR (2017) Simulated heat waves during maize reproductive stages alter reproductive growth but have no lasting effect when applied heat waves during maize reproductive stages alter reproductive growth but have no lasting effect when applied during vegetative stages. Agric Ecosyst Environ 240:162–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  98. Serju C (2010) Challenges force underperformance. Jamaica Gleaner, Sunday (August 1) Available at: http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100801/lead/lead6.html

  99. Smith R, Rhiney K (2015) Climate change, vulnerability, land and livelihoods: the case of the Black Caribs in northeastern St. Vincent. Geoforum 73(1):22–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.11.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  100. Stephenson TS, Goodess CM, Haylock MR, Chen AA, Taylor MA (2008) Detecting inhomogeneities in Caribbean and adjacent Caribbean temperature data using sea-surface temperatures. J Geophys Res 113:D21116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  101. Stephenson TS, Vincent LA, Allen T, Van Meerbeeck CJ, McLean N, Peterson TC, Taylor MA, Aaron-Morrison AP, Auguste T, Bernard D, Boekhoudt JRI, Blenman RC, Braithwaite GC, Brown G, Butler M, Cumberbatch CJM, Etienne-Leblanc S, Lake DE, Martin DE, McDonald JL, Zaruela MO, Porter AO, Ramirez MS, Tamar GA, Roberts BA, Mitro SS, Shaw A, Spence JM, Winter A, Trotman AR, (2014) Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean region, 1961-2010. Int J Climatol

  102. Taylor MA, Centello-Artola A, Charlery J, Forrajero I, Bezanilla A, Campbell A, Rivero R, Stephenson TS, Whyte E, Watson R (2007) Glimpses of the future: a briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean Climate Change Project, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize. [online] URL; http://caribbeanclimate.bz/download.php. Retrieved 13th March, 2017

  103. Taylor MA, Stephenson TS, Chen AA, Stephenson KA (2012) Climate change and the Caribbean: review and response. Caribb Stud 40(2):169–200. https://doi.org/10.1353/crb.2012.0020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  104. Taylor MA, White FS, Stephenson TS, Campbell JD (2013) Why dry? Investigating the future evolution of the Caribbean low level jet to explain projected Caribbean drying. Int J Climatol 33:784–792. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  105. Taylor MA, Clarke LA, Centella A, Bezanilla A, Stephenson TS, Jones JJ, Campbell JD, Vichot A, Charlery J (2018) Future Caribbean climates in a world of rising temperatures: the 1.5 vs. 2.0 dilemma. J Clim 31(7):2907–2926. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0074.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  106. Thompson N (2015) Shortage of extension officers crippling farmers. Jamaica Gleaner, Tuesday, November 17. Available at: https://jamaicagleaner.com/article/western-focus/20151117/shortage-extension-officers-crippling-farmers

  107. Timms BF (2008) Development theory and domestic agriculture in the Caribbean: recurring crises and missed opportunities. Caribb Geogr 15(2):101–117

    Google Scholar 

  108. Tomlinson J, Rhiney K (2018) Assessing the role of farmer field schools in promoting pro-adaptive behavior and attitude toward climate change in Jamaica. J Environ Stud Sci 8(1):86–98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-017-0461-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  109. Trotz U, Lindo S (2013) Vulnerability and resilience building in CARICOM countries. Small Island Digest 2(1):25–39

    Google Scholar 

  110. UNFCCC (2015) Report of the structured expert dialogue on the 2013–2015 review (UN Doc. FCCC/SB/2015/INF.1, 4 May 2015

  111. Van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MG, Kram T, van Vliet J, Deetman S, Isaac M, Goldewijk KK, Hof A, Beltran AM, Oostenrijk R, van Ruijven B (2011) RCP2. 6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 °C. Clim Chang 109(1–2):95–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  112. Weeks J (ed) (2016) Structural adjustment and the agricultural sector in Latin America and the Caribbean. Springer, London

    Google Scholar 

  113. Weis T (2004) Restructuring and redundancy: the impact and illogic of neoliberal agricultural reforms in Jamaica. J Agrar Chang 4(4):461–491. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2004.00088.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  114. Wells J (2013) Complexity and sustainability. Routledge, London and New York

  115. Wheeler T, von Braun J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341(6145):508–513. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239402

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  116. Wolkovich EM, Cleland EE (2014) Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change. AoB PLANTS 6. https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plu013

  117. Zandalinas SI, Balfagon D, Arbona V, Gomez-Cadenas A (2017) Modulation of antioxidant defense system is associated with combined drought and heat stress tolerance in citrus. Front Plant Sci 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.00953

  118. Zhou R, Yu X, Ottosen C-O, Rosenqvist E, Zhao L, Wang Y, Yu W, Zhao T, Wu Z (2017) Drought stress had a predominant effect over heat stress on three tomato cultivars subjected to combined stress. BMC Plant Biol 17(1):24

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kevon Rhiney.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 410 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rhiney, K., Eitzinger, A., Farrell, A.D. et al. Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector. Reg Environ Change 18, 2313–2327 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1409-4

Download citation

Keywords

  • Small island developing states
  • Climate change
  • Agriculture
  • Adaptation
  • Jamaica
  • Caribbean