Response of the river discharge in the Tocantins River Basin, Brazil, to environmental changes and the associated effects on the energy potential

Regional Environmental Change volume 19, pages 193–204 (2019)Cite this article

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact the hydrological regime worldwide, and land use and land cover change may alter the effects of the former in some cases. Secondary growth in deforested and abandoned areas is one of the main consequences of land use and cover changes in Amazonia. Among land uses, the effects of the secondary growth in water availability in large scale basins are not well understood. This work analyzes the potential effects of secondary growth under climate and land use change on water availability and hydropower in the Tocantins basin, in the Legal Amazon region of Brazil, using the MHD-INPE hydrological model driven by different climate scenarios and two future socioeconomic-based potential land use scenarios. The model projects decrease on discharge under climate change scenarios, which further cause the simulated hydropower energy potential to decrease significantly. When only deforestation scenarios are included, the effects of climate change are weakened, but when secondary growth is also considered, the effects of climate change are enhanced. Results suggest that different aspects of environmental change, such as secondary growth, may affect water production and the sectors depending on it.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge European Union for financially supporting the EU-FP7 AMAZALERT project (Raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate and long-term land use change in the Amazon - grant agreement no. 282664), of which this work is part. The authors also acknowledge the “Fundo Amazonia” program of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), which partially supported the LUCC-ME modeling framework.

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Affiliations

  1. Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil

    Rita Casia Silva Von Randow & Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar

  2. Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Daniel Andrés Rodriguez

  3. CEMADEN, Centro de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

    Javier Tomasella

  4. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar

  5. Water Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Bart Kruijt

  6. IIASA, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Pavel Kabat

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  1. Rita Casia Silva Von Randow
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  2. Daniel Andrés Rodriguez
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Correspondence to Rita Casia Silva Von Randow.

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Von Randow, R.C.S., Rodriguez, D.A., Tomasella, J. et al. Response of the river discharge in the Tocantins River Basin, Brazil, to environmental changes and the associated effects on the energy potential. Reg Environ Change 19, 193–204 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1396-5

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Keywords

  • Hydrological modeling
  • Climate change
  • Land use and land cover change
  • Secondary forest
  • Hydropower potential