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Predicting suitable habitats of four range margin amphibians under climate and land-use changes in southwestern France


Whereas the effects of climate change on the potential range shifts of amphibians have been modeled at various scales, exploring the future impacts of land-use changes has rarely been considered. We modeled the potential distribution of Bombina variegata, Hyla arborea, Hyla meridionalis, and Triturus cristatus using ecological niche modeling, in the French administrative region Nouvelle-Aquitaine. The species are all at range margin in the study area which makes them interesting model species to study range shifts because of their potential local adaptations to their marginal habitat. We used Dyna-CLUE modeling framework to produce land-use change scenarios and combined them with RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios to predict their impact on local amphibian distributions. B. variegata, H. arborea, and T. cristatus were predicted to shift eastward and northward. H. meridionalis was predicted to increase its probability of presence in the study area. The effect of climate determined the general pattern of distribution and was modulated depending on the scenarios of land-use change.

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We thank Vienne Nature (Miguel Gailledrat), Deux-Sèvres Nature Environnement (Alexandre Boissinot and Florian Doré), Nature Environnement 17 (Olivier Roques), the Ligue de Protection des Oiseaux de Charente-Maritime (Eric Brugel), Charente Nature (Matthieu Dorfiac), the Groupe Mammalogique et Herpétologique du Limousin (Gaëlle Caublot), and Cistude Nature (Matthieu Berroneau, via their program “Sentinelles du climat” coordinated by Fanny Mallard) for their contributions to our work. We thank Julian Reynolds for assistance with the English. We thank the anonymous reviewers and the Editor for their comments and improvements on the manuscript.


The study was supported by the Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie, the Agence de l’eau Loire Bretagne, and the Communauté d’agglomération de Grand Châtellerault. RB’s work was supported by the TULIP Laboratory of Excellence (ANR-10-LABX-41).

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Correspondence to Clémentine Préau.

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Préau, C., Isselin-Nondedeu, F., Sellier, Y. et al. Predicting suitable habitats of four range margin amphibians under climate and land-use changes in southwestern France. Reg Environ Change 19, 27–38 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1381-z

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  • Ecological niche modeling
  • Global change
  • Landscape change
  • Range margin amphibians