Assessing climate change adaptation strategies—the case of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear sector

Abstract

Nuclear energy is a very important component of overall power supply in France. If the effects of future extreme weather events or climate shifts are not addressed, energy systems will be highly vulnerable to extreme weather events or shifts in weather patterns, such as changes in precipitation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved in climate projections and response strategies, any strategy implementation should perform adequately regardless of which scenario actually materialises. In this paper, we analyse the effects of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear energy sector using the Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method. The key feature of the method is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by (min, max) values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option’s performance can be visually inspected for robustness. The method can be utilised as a “module” of its own in different uncertainty management approaches. Based on the case study, the presented adaptation strategies “Maintaining industrial production and final demand” and “Smart grid infrastructure” were more robust than the “No planned or automatic adaptation”.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

References

  1. Aaheim A, Crawford-Brown D, Axhausen KW, Ciari F, Stahel A, Perrels A, Nurmi V, Pilli-Sihvola K, Meyer B, Prettenthaler F, Richter V, Purwanto AJ, Heyndrickx C, Osborn T, Wallace C, Warren R, Jantunen J, Molarius R, Nokkala M (2013) Sector-level adaptation challenges in the literature. ToPDAd deliverable 1.1. Available: http://www.topdad.eu/upl/files/98434. Accessed December 2015

  2. Alcamo J (2001) Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen. Environmental Issues Report. Experts Corner Report. Prospects and Scenarios No. 5. Available: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/environmental_issue_report_2001_24. Accessed 2 March 2018

  3. Berkhout F, Bouwer L, Bayer J, Bouzid M, Cabeza M, Hanger S, Hof A, Hunter P, Meller L, Patt A, Pfluger B, Rayner T, Reichardt K, van Teeffelen A (2013) EEuropean responses to climate change: deep emissions reductions and main-streaming of mitigation and adaptation. RESPONSES project policy Brief No. D9. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam

  4. Berkhout F, van den Hurk B, Bessembinder J, de Boer J, Bregman B, van Drunen M (2014) Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Reg Environ Chang 14:879–893. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0519-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Cooke RM (1991) Experts in uncertainty—opinion and subjective probability in science. Oxford University Press, New York ISBN-10: 0195064658

    Google Scholar 

  6. Crawford-Brown D, Syddall M, Guan D, Hall J, Li J, Jenkins K, Beaven R (2013) Vulnerability of London’s economy to climate change: sensitivity to production loss. J Environ Prot 4:548–563. https://doi.org/10.4236/jep.2013.46064

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. European Commission (2013) Adapting infrastructure to climate change. Commission Staff Working Document, SWD 137. Available: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/docs/swd_2013_137_en.pdf. Accessed December 2015

  8. Fritsch O (2017) Integrated and adaptive water resources management: exploring public participation in the UK. Reg Environ Chang 17:1933–1944. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0973-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hamilton MC, Thekdi SA, Jenicek EM, Harmon RS, Goodsite ME, Case MP, Karvetski CW, Lambert JH (2013) Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems. Environ Syst Decis 33:89–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-012-9424-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Hanski J, Rosqvist T (2016) A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex longterm decisions. In: Walls L, Revie M, Bedford T (eds) Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice, CRC Press, p 2929–2936. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315374987-44

    Google Scholar 

  11. Hanski J, Rosqvist T, Crawford-Brown D (2015) ToPDAd deliverable D4.3—demonstration description—visualisation of robust adaptation strategies. Available: http://www.topdad.eu/publications. Accessed Oct 2015

  12. Harjanne A, Nurmi V, Perrels A,Votsis A, Osborn T, Melvin T, Wallace C (2014) ToPDAd deliverable D2.1—climate hazard and impact scenarios. Available: http://www.topdad.eu/publications. Accessed October 2015

  13. Hinkel J, Bisaro A (2014) Methodological choices in solution-oriented adaptation research: a diagnostic framework. Reg Environ Chang. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0682-0

  14. Kasprzyk JR, Nataraj S, Reed PM, Lempert RJ (2013) Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change. Environ Model Softw 42:55–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.12.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Lempert RJ, Groves DG (2010) Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 77(6):960–974. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Lempert RJ, Groves DG, Popper SW, Bankes SC (2006) A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Manag Sci 52(4):514–528. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Li J, Crawford-Brown D, Syddall M, Guan D (2013) Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input–output analysis. Risk Anal 33:1908–1923. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12040

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Maier HR, Guillaume JHA, van Delden H, Riddell GA, Haasnoot M, Kwakkel JH (2016) An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: how do they fit together? Environ Model Softw 81:154–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. McAllister RRJ, McCrea R, Lubell MN (2014) Policy networks, stakeholder interactions and climate adaptation in the region of South East Queensland, Australia. Reg Environ Chang 14:527–539. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0489-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Miller KA, Belton V (2014) Water resource management and climate change adaptation: a holistic and multiple criteria perspective. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19(3):289–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9537-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Montibeller G, Franco A (2010) Multi-criteria decision analysis for strategic decision making. Chapter 2. In: Zopounidis C, Pardalos PM (eds) Handbook of multicriteria analysis, applied optimization 103. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-92828-7_2

    Google Scholar 

  22. OFGEM (2011) Adaptation to climate change. Report to DEFRA, Office of the Gas and Electricity Markets. London

  23. Perrels A, Prettenthaler F, Kortschak D, Heyndrickx C, Ciari F, Boesch P, Kiviluoma J, Azevedo M, Ekholm T, Crawford-Brown D, Thompson A (2015). ToPDAd deliverable D2.4. Available: http://www.topdad.eu/publications. Accessed 13 April 2016

  24. Pielke RA, Sarewitz D (2005) Bringing society back into the climate debate. Popul Environ 26:255–268. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-005-1877-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Porthin M, Rosqvist T, Perrels A, Molarius R (2013) Multi-criteria decision analysis in adaptation decision-making: a flood case study in Finland. Reg Environ Chang 13(6):1171–1180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0423-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Højberg AL, Vanrolleghem PA (2007) Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process—a framework and guidance. Environ Model Softw 22(11):1543–1556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Schmidt VA, Radaelli CM (2004) Policy change and discourse in Europe: conceptual and methodological issues. West Eur Polit 27:183–210. https://doi.org/10.1080/0140238042000214874

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Scrieciu SŞ, Belton V, Chalabi Z, Mechler R, Puig D (2014) Advancing methodological thinking and practice for development-compatible climate policy planning. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19(3):261–288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9538-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Skjong R, Wentworth B (2001) Expert judgement and risk perception. Proceedings of the Eleventh International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference Stavanger, Norway, June 17-22, 2001. ISBN 1-880653-51-6

  30. Swart R, Biesbroek R, Binnerup S, Carter TR, Cowan C, Henrichs T, Loquen S, Mela H, Morecroft M, Reese M, Rey D (2009) Europe adapts to climate change: comparing national adaptation strategies. Partnership for European Research PEER Report 1

  31. Thissen W, Kwakkel J, Mens M, van der Sluijs J, Stemberger S, Wardekker A, Wildschut D (2017) Dealing with uncertainties in fresh water supply: experiences in the Netherlands. Water Resour Manag 31:703–725. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1198-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. van der Heijden K (1996) Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley & Sons, New York

    Google Scholar 

  33. van der Sluijs JP, Craye M, Funtowicz S, Kloprogge P, Ravetz J, Risbey J (2005) Combining quantitative and qualitative measures of uncertainty in model based environmental assessment: the NUSAP System. Risk Anal 25(2):481e492. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00604.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Whateley S, Steinschneider S, Brown C (2014) A climate change range-based method for estimating robustness for water resources supply. Water Resour Res 50:8944–8961. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015956

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

The research presented in this paper was funded by the EU Framework 7 project Tool-support policy-development for regional adaptation (ToPDAd) (www.topdad.eu).

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jyri Hanski.

Additional information

Editor:Xiangzheng Deng.

Appendices

Appendix 1

The SRVM method can be formalised as follows (Hanski and Rosqvist 2016):

Sc i :

scenario i

St j :

strategy j

\( {\overline{\mathbf{v}}}_{\mathrm{ij}}^{\wedge } \) :

optimistic performance valuations (multiple criteria or indicators) of strategy j under scenario i.

\( {\overline{\mathbf{v}}}_{\mathrm{ij}}^{\vee } \) :

pessimistic performance valuations (multiple criteria or indicators) of strategy j under scenario i.

\( \left({\mathrm{Sc}}_{\mathrm{i}},{St}_{\mathrm{j}}\right)\to {\overline{\mathbf{v}}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}} \) :

is a mapping of a scenario and strategy—combination to multiple performance levels or valuations which are uncertain (a random vector which get values from model runs or experts’ opinions).

A set of robust strategy is such that the following conditions are met: \( \left\{\mathrm{j}:{\overline{\mathbf{v}}}_{\mathrm{ij}}^{\wedge }>\kern0.62em \overline{\mathbf{0}}\ \mathrm{and}\ {\overline{\mathbf{v}}}_{\mathrm{ij}}^{\vee }>\overline{\mathbf{0}}\kern1em \forall i\right\} \), meaning that a robust strategy outperforms the current strategy given in any scenario and related optimistic and pessimistic valuations across the decision criteria.

Appendix 2

Table 1 Scales for assessing the performance of the decision criteria

Appendix 3

Table 2 Performance of the adaptation strategies based on ARIO modelling

Appendix 4

Table 3 Scaled modelling results

Appendix 5

Table 4 Performance of the adaptation strategies based on expert opinion

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hanski, J., Rosqvist, T. & Crawford-Brown, D. Assessing climate change adaptation strategies—the case of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear sector. Reg Environ Change 18, 1801–1813 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1312-z

Download citation

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Adaptation
  • Strategy assessment
  • French
  • Nuclear energy