Investigating environmental migration and other rural drought adaptation strategies in Baja California Sur, Mexico

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between specific household traits (region of residence, head of household occupation, financial diversity, female level of education, land and animal ownership, social capital, and climate perception) and choice of specific adaptation strategies used by households in two sites in Baja California Sur, Mexico, during a severe drought from 2006 to 2012 using survey data and key informant interviews. We analyzed the co-occurrence of household traits adopting different drought adaptation strategies, then applied Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to examine the relationship between traits and strategies and integrated interview data to understand how rancheros perceive associations. We found evidence of diversity among households within the larger cultural group, both in the types of resources they have available and in the adaptation strategies they select. However, the most robust finding across the analyses appeared to be urban access; that is, the more a household was able to access urban services including piped water, the less likely they were to have used one of the drought adaptation strategies under study. These findings suggest that social structure and public investments are stronger predictors of smallholder adaptation rather than individual household traits. We also found that rancheros seem to rely less on traditional environmental migration to adapt to drought and rather settle in key watershed zones. We call for targeted policies to address inequities to access fresh water, including urban water, during drought times for the benefit of overall watershed health and the sustainability of rural ranchero livelihoods as they evolve to respond to climatological and economic change.