Abstract
Present day and future social vulnerability, flood risk, and disadvantage across the UK are explored using the UK Future Flood Explorer. In doing so, new indices of neighbourhood flood vulnerability and social flood risk are introduced and used to provide a quantitative comparison of the flood risks faced by more and less socially vulnerable neighbourhoods. The results show the concentrated nature of geographic flood disadvantage. For example, ten local authorities account for 50% of the most socially vulnerable people that live in flood prone areas. The results also highlight the systematic nature of flood disadvantage. For example, flood risks are higher in socially vulnerable communities than elsewhere; this is shown to be particularly the case in coastal areas, economically struggling cities, and dispersed rural communities. Results from a re-analysis of the Environment Agency’s Long-Term Investment Scenarios (for England) suggest a long-term economic case for improving the protection afforded to the most socially vulnerable communities; a finding that reinforces the need to develop a better understanding of flood risk in socially vulnerable communities if flood risk management efforts are to deliver fair outcomes. In response to these findings, the paper advocates an approach to flood risk management that emphasises Rawlsian principles of preferentially targeting risk reduction for the most socially vulnerable and avoids a process of prioritisation based upon strict utilitarian or purely egalitarian principles.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Dateline Autumn 2016.
References
Bouwer LM, Bubeck P, Aerts JC (2010) Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area. Glob Environ Chang 20(3):463–471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.002
Burgess, K.A., Chatterton, J.B., Samuels, P.G., Penning-Rowsell, E.C., Sayers, P.B. and Deakin, R. (2000). National Appraisal of Assets at Risk from flooding and Coastal Erosion, Project report by HR Wallingford and Halcrow under MAFF Commission FD1702 in support of the 1998 Comprehensive Spending Review. Wallingford: HR Wallingford http://www.sayersandpartners.co.uk/uploads/6/2/0/9/6209349/naar-1998.pdf accessed 12/11/20172
Cutter SL, Burton CG, Emrich CT (2010) Disaster resilience indicators for benchmarking baseline conditions. J Homel Secur Emerg Manag 7(1):1–22. https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1732
DCLG (2015) The English indices of deprivation. Department for Communities and Local Government, London
Defra (2004) The advantages and disadvantages of adopting consistent standards for communities. Defra, London
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) (2011) Flood and coastal resilience partnership funding: Defra policy statement on an outcome-focused, partnership approach to funding flood and coastal erosion risk management. Defra, London
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) (2013) Flood and coastal resilience partnership funding. Defra, London
Defra (2014a). Press release: £2.3 billion to be spent on new flood defences. London: Defra
Defra (2014b) Flood risk management: information for flood risk management authorities, asset owners and local authorities, Updated June 2014. London: Defra.
England K, Knox K (2015) Targeting flood investment and policy to minimise disadvantage. Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York
Environment Agency (2009) Flooding in England. Environment Agency, Bristol
Environment Agency (2014). Long-term investment scenarios (LTIS). Published by the Environment Agency https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/381939/FCRM_Long_term_investment_scenarios.pdf Accessed 03/03/2016
Evans EP, Ashley R, Hall J, Penning-Rowsell EC, Sayers P, Thorne C, Watkinson A (2004a) Foresight: future flooding (Vol 1). In: Future risks and their drivers. Published by the Office of Science and Technology, London
Evans EP, Ashley R, Hall J, Penning-Rowsell EC, Saul A, Sayers P, Thorne C, Watkinson A (2004b) Foresight: future flooding (Vol 2). In: Managing future risks. Published by Office of Science and Technology, London
Hall JW, Dawson RJ, Sayers P, Rosu C, Chatterton JB, Deakin R (2003) A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Proc Inst Civ Eng Water Mar Eng 156(3):235–247. https://doi.org/10.1234/12345678
Hallegatte S, Bangalore M and Vogt-Schilb A. (2016). Assessing socioeconomic resilience to floods in 90 countries. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 7663. Accessed June 2017. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/387821467309551281/pdf/WPS7663.pdf Accessed June 2017
Johnson C, Penning-Rowsell EC, Parker DJ (2007) Natural and imposed injustices: the challenges in implementing ‘fair’ flood risk management policy in England. Geogr J 173(4):374–390. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2007.00256.x
Kazmierczak A, Cavan G, Connelly A, Lindley S (2015) Mapping flood disadvantage in Scotland 2015. The Scottish Government, Edinburgh
Kind J, Botzen W, Aerts J (2017) Accounting for risk aversion, income distribution and social welfare in cost-benefit analysis for flood risk management. WIREs Clim Chang 2017(8):e446. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.446
Klijn F, van Buuren M, van Rooij SA (2004) Flood-risk management strategies for an uncertain future: living with Rhine river floods in the Netherlands? AMBIO 33(3):141–147. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-33.3.141
Klijn F, de Bruijn KM, Knoop J, Kwadijk J (2012) Assessment of the Netherlands’ flood risk management policy under global change. Ambio 41(2):180–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0193-x
Kwakkel JH, Pruyt E (2013) Exploratory modeling and analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80(3):419–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.005
Lindley S, O’Neill J, Kandeh J, Lawson N, Christian R, O’Neill M (2011) Climate change, justice and vulnerability. Published by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York
Money.co.uk (2017). Is now the time to ditch your landline? Accessed at: http://www.money.co.uk/landlines/is-now-the-time-to-ditch-your-landline.htm. March 2017
Nada-Rajah R (2010) Stories of environmental justice. Published by the Artists Project Earth, Banbury
National Flood Forum (2012) Property level protection and insurance. Published by the National Flood Forum, Bewdley
National Flood Forum (2016) Barriers to property level protection. Published by the National Flood Forum, Bewdley
ONS (2015) 2011 Census data. ONS, London
Penning-Rowsell EC (2014). What do the 2013/14 floods tell us about overall flood risk in England and Wales? Circulation121:3–5: The Newsletter of The British Hydrological Society
Penning-Rowsell EC (2015) A realistic assessment of fluvial and coastal flood risk in England and Wales. Trans Inst Br Geogr 40(1):44–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.12053
Penning-Rowsell EC (2016). Is national AAD really only £93m-to-£116m, rather than £1.3bn? Circulation, 131: 14–15: The Newsletter of The British Hydrological Society
Penning-Rowsell EC, Priest SJ and King D, 2016. Flood risk management and “fairness”: aspirations and reality. In E3S Web of Conferences (Vol. 7, p. 24001). EDP Sciences. doi:https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160724001
Pike A, MacKinnon D, Coombes M, Champion T, Bradley D, Cumbers A, Robson L, Wymer C (2016). Uneven growth: tackling city decline. Published by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York
Pitt M (2007) The Pitt review: learning lessons from the 2007 floods—full report. Published by Cabinet Office. Whitehall, London, p 22
Rawls J (1971) A Theory of Justice. Harvard University Press, Boston
Robotham (2016) Mapping flood disadvantage in York: risk, vulnerability, and the role of social capital. Submitted in partial fulfilment of the MSc in Water Science. University of Oxford, Policy and Management
Sayers, PB. (2017). Evolution of strategic flood risk management in support of social justice, ecosystem health, and resilience. Published by Oxford Research Encyclopedia: Natural Hazard Science https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.85
Sayers PB, Panzeri M, Rosu Kemp J, Deakin R, Neve P, Bodilly A, Hall J, Dawson R, Chatterton JB (2002a). National Flood Risk Assessment 2002. HR Wallingford Report EX 4722 for the Environment Agency http://wwwsayersandpartnerscouk/uploads/6/2/0/9/6209349/nafra_-_2002_-_ex4722_-_national_risk_flood_assessmentpdf Accessed June 2017
Sayers PB, Hall JW, Meadowcroft IC (2002b) Towards risk-based flood hazard management in the UK. Civil Eng 150(5):36–42. https://doi.org/10.1680/cien.2002.150.5.36
Sayers P.B., Ohl C., Rosu C., Panzeri M.C., Kemp, J., Deakin, R., Neve, P., Bodilly, A., Hall, J., Dawson, R., and Chatterton, J. (2003). National Flood Risk Assessment 2002. HR Wallingford Report EX4722 for the Environment Agency. Wallingford: HR Wallingford. http://www.sayersandpartners.co.uk/uploads/6/2/0/9/6209349/nafra_-_2002_-_ex4722_-_national_risk_flood_assessment.pdf accessed 12/11/2017
Sayers PB, Galloway G, Penning-Rowsell EC, Shen F, Wen K, Chen Y, Le Quesne T (2014) Strategic flood management: ten ‘golden rules’ to guide a sound approach. J Int J River Basin Manag. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.902378
Sayers PB, Horritt MS, Penning-Rowsell EC, Mckenzie A (2015). Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: projections of future flood risk in the UK. Main report, Appendix A Supporting data sets, Appendix E Individual adaptation measures, and Appendix F: The Future Flood Explorer Overview. A Sayers and Partners LLP report for the Committee on Climate Change. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sayers-for-the-asc-projections-of-future-flood-risk-in-the-uk/ accessed 9/11/16
Sayers, P.B., Li Yuanyuan, Moncrieff, C, Li Jianqiang, Tickner, D., Xu Xiangyu, Speed, R., Li Aihua, Lei Gang, Qiu Bing, Wei Yu and Pegram G. (2016a). Drought risk management: a strategic approach. Published in 2016 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07SP, France © UNESCO 2016 ISBN 978–92–3-1000942
Sayers PB, Lamb R, Panzeri M, Bowman H, Hall J, Horritt M, Penning-Rowsell EC (2016b). Believe it or not? The challenge of validating large scale probabilistic risk models. Proceedings of Floodrisk2016. E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 11004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160711004
Sayers PB, Horritt M, Penning Rowsell E, and Fieth J (2017). Present and future flood vulnerability, risk and disadvantage: a UK assessment. A report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published by Sayers and Partners LLP. Accessible here http://www.sayersandpartners.co.uk/flood-disadvantage.html
Sen A (1992). Inequality re-examined. University of Oxford: Published by the Clarendon Press
Tapsell SM, Penning-Rowsell EC, Tunstall SM, Wilson TL (2002) Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions. Flood risk in a changing climate philosophical transactions of the Royal Society, Mathematical. Phys Eng Sci 360:1511–1525. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1013
Thrush D, Burningham K, Fielding J (2005). Flood warning for vulnerable groups: measuring & mapping vulnerability. Published by Defra/Environment Agency, Flood and coastal erosion risk management R&D Programme
Treasury HM (2003) The green book: appraisal and evaluation in central government. Published by. HMSO, London
Twigger-Ross C, Kashefi E, Weldon S, Brooks K, Deeming H, Forrest S, Fielding J, Gomersall A, Harries T, McCarthy S, Orr P, Parker DJ, Tapsell S (2014) Flood resilience community pathfinder evaluation: rapid evidence assessment. Published by Defra, London
van Alphen J (2014). The Delta programme and updated flood risk management policies in the Netherlands. Proceeding of the 6th International conference on flood management. Sao Paulo, Brazil
Vojinović Z, Abbott MB (2012) Flood risk and social justice. IWA publishing, London
Waite TD, Chaintarli K, Beck C, Bone A, Amlot R, Kovats S, Reacher M, Armstrong B, Leonardi G, Rubin J, Oliver I (2017) The English national cohort study of flooding and health: cross-section analysis of mental health outcomes at year one. Public Health England, London
Walker G, Burningham K (2011) Flood Risk, Vulnerability and Environmental Justice: evidence and evaluation of inequality in a UK context. Crit Soc Policy 31(2):216–240. https://doi.org/10.1177/0261018310396149
Watkiss P, Cimato F, Hunt A, Morley B (2016) Climate change impacts on the future cost of living. Paul Watkiss Associates, London
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the funding provided by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (Katharine Knox) through their support of our research into flood resilience in disadvantaged communities (Sayers et al. 2017) that forms the basis of this paper. The assistance of Jessie Fieth is also acknowledged.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sayers, P., Penning-Rowsell, E.C. & Horritt, M. Flood vulnerability, risk, and social disadvantage: current and future patterns in the UK. Reg Environ Change 18, 339–352 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1252-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1252-z