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Spatiotemporal reconstruction of agricultural land cover in Nepal from 1970 to 2010

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Abstract

Agricultural land cover and changes in its extent are directly related to human activities. The rapidly growing population in Nepal has resulted in an increasing trend of agricultural land expansion, and can be used to determine the long-term status of agricultural land cover via reconstruction. This decadal study considered spatially explicit agricultural area, statistical records, population density, soil types, and climate and topography datasets. We collected available datasets and revised them on the basis of a spatiotemporal reconstruction of agricultural land cover. The different datasets were based on 30 × 30 m grid cells used for agricultural land suitability and allocation models. This historical agricultural land reconstruction revealed an increasing trend in agricultural area from 37.03 to 43.88 (103 km2), between 1970 and 2010. In this period, the agricultural land expanded and agriculture became more intensified, especially in the southern and middle parts of the country. A slightly decreasing trend was found in areas surrounding big cities. The evaluation of the results of our reconstruction and a comparison with satellite-based data in 2010 confirmed that this study established an effective methodology. The results of the study were in agreement with the FAO, History Database of the Global Environment 3.1 and 3.2, and the range of differences was found closer. These reconstruction datasets were suitable for use in climatic impact assessments of agricultural land change, as well as carbon cycle and climate modeling studies.

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Acknowledgements

This research was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41371120), the Chinese Academy of Sciences—The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President’s Fellowship Program for PhD study, and the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. 131C11KYSB20160061). We are thankful to Dr. Linshan Liu and Dr. Zhaofeng Wang of the IGSNRR, and Prof. Dr. Narendra Raj Khanal of the Central Department of Geography, Tribhuvan University, Nepal, for their help, comments, and guidance during this study. The authors are grateful to the editors and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, 100101, China

    Basanta Paudel, Yili Zhang, Shicheng Li & Xue Wu

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Basanta Paudel, Yili Zhang, Shicheng Li & Xue Wu

  3. CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Yili Zhang

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  1. Basanta Paudel
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  2. Yili Zhang
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  4. Xue Wu
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Correspondence to Yili Zhang.

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Editor: Wolfgang Cramer

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Paudel, B., Zhang, Y., Li, S. et al. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of agricultural land cover in Nepal from 1970 to 2010. Reg Environ Change 17, 2349–2357 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1164-y

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