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Cross-sectoral impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland: implications for adaptation policy

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Abstract

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.

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Acknowledgments

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No. 244031 (The CLIMSAVE Project; Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe; www.climsave.eu). CLIMSAVE is an endorsed project of the Global Land Project of the IGBP. The authors would like to thank all CLIMSAVE partners for their contributions to many productive discussions related to the content of this paper. The authors are also grateful to all stakeholders who participated in the project workshops and kindly offered their valuable input.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK

    Ian P. Holman

  2. Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK

    Paula A. Harrison

  3. School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK

    Marc J. Metzger

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  1. Ian P. Holman
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  2. Paula A. Harrison
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  3. Marc J. Metzger
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Correspondence to Ian P. Holman.

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Holman, I.P., Harrison, P.A. & Metzger, M.J. Cross-sectoral impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland: implications for adaptation policy. Reg Environ Change 16, 97–109 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0679-8

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