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Dealing with changing risks: a New Zealand perspective on climate change adaptation

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Abstract

Future changes in New Zealand’s climate are expected to be less than in many other countries, and New Zealand has well-established governance structures for dealing with environmental risks. While this might imply that adaptation would be straightforward, extensive public and private investments, as well as many traditional Māori assets and cultural values, are in areas increasingly at risk of flooding and sea level rise. In order to consider the country’s adaptive capacity in more detail, we have used an empirical research approach, working with government practitioners at three levels and with Māori communities. Very different perceptions of risk, and structural inertia in planning processes have emerged as key issues for implementing adaptation responses. In particular, the use of static frameworks biases responses towards retrospective, rather than anticipatory analysis. Ongoing socioeconomic changes in New Zealand also raise the risk of structural effects caused by climate change impacts becoming unevenly distributed across society. Our analysis indicates that a national and regional strategic approach, centred on a dynamic view of climate risk, is necessary for effective decisions at the local government and community level. In addition, effective adaptation requires better identification of barriers and opportunities for addressing changing risk, together with more effective and continuous social engagement.

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Notes

  1. The Waitangi Tribunal was established by the Treaty of Waitangi Act 1975 and is a permanent commission of inquiry charged with making recommendations on claims brought by Māori relating to actions or omissions of the Crown that breach the promises made in the Treaty of Waitangi 1840.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the many research participants from local governments and participating communities without whom this work could not have been undertaken. Publication of results from community-based work at Arowhenua Pā was authorised by Te Rūnanga o Arowhenua Society Incorporated. This work is based on a research programme VICX0805 funded by the New Zealand Ministry for Science and Innovation (now part of the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment). Valuable contributions to that programme have come from Jochen Bind, Wakaiti Dalton, Maurice Duncan, Georgina Hart, Mandy Home, Davina Hosking, Dorothee Quade, Andy Reisinger, Apanui Skipper, Simon Tegg, MS Srinivasan and Christian Zammit. Rob Bell and Emily Lane, of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, are thanked for providing part of Fig. 1. Finally, we acknowledge the helpful comments made by two reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand

    Martin Manning & Judy Lawrence

  2. Māori Environmental Research Centre/National Climate Centre, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Private Bag 99940, Auckland, 1149, New Zealand

    Darren Ngaru King

  3. School of Geography Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand

    Ralph Chapman

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  1. Martin Manning
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  2. Judy Lawrence
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Correspondence to Martin Manning.

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Manning, M., Lawrence, J., King, D.N. et al. Dealing with changing risks: a New Zealand perspective on climate change adaptation. Reg Environ Change 15, 581–594 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0673-1

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