Skip to main content

Flood exposure and settlement expansion since pre-industrial times in 1850 until 2011 in north Bavaria, Germany

Regional Environmental Change volume 15, pages 183–193 (2015)Cite this article

An Erratum to this article was published on 31 July 2014

Abstract

During the past century, land use change, such as settlement development and intensification of agriculture, has led to a decreased capacity of natural floodplains to provide flood regulation across large areas of Europe. The expansion of built-up areas in flood zones has reduced retention areas, potentially leading to an increase of downstream flood risk and an increased demand for flood regulation measures. The goal of this paper was to analyse the historic development of settlements from the 1850s until 2011 in relation to flood exposure in the upper reaches of the river Main, Germany. The settlement area of pre-industrial times was derived from historical land cover maps with the aid of object-based classification. Current settlement areas were extracted from the real estate map of Bavaria. Topographic and flood exposure variables were utilized for the statistical analysis of settlement change. Results showed a strong increase in settlements in all administrative districts of the case study area since the 1850s. The total built-up area within the flooding zone of the investigated section of the Main river increased almost fivefold. Such expansion of settlement into the natural floodplains indicates a high growth in demand for flood regulation. Furthermore, our results suggest that flood exposure affected site selection of settlement in the past much stronger than it does today. Technical flood control (e.g. channels, dams and retention areas) reduced the area of settlement at risk for many towns in the case study region, but for some, it remains remarkably high.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

References

  • Antrop M (2004) Landscape change and the urbanization process in Europe. Landsc Urban Plan 67:9–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bätzing W (2013) Bevölkerungsentwicklung (19./20. Jahrhundert), Historisches Lexikon Bayerns. http://www.historisches-lexikon-bayerns.de/artikel/artikel_44452. Accessed 05 May 2014

  • Bayrisches Landesamt für Statistik und Datenverarbeitung (2012) Volkszählung und Bevölkerungsfortschreibung. München

  • Bender O, Boehmer HJ, Jens D, Schumacher KP (2005) Analysis of land-use change in a sector of Upper Franconia (Bavaria, Germany) since 1850 using land register records. Landsc Ecol 20:149–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BMU & BfN (2009) Auenzustandsbericht-Flussauen in Deutschland. Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit und Bundesamt für Naturschutz. Berlin, Bonn

  • Bouwer LM, Crompton RP, Faust E, Höppe P, Pielke RA (2007) Confronting disaster losses. Science 318:753

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Brunotte E, Dister E, Günther-Diringer D, Koenzen U, Mehl D (2009) Flussauen in Deutschland–Erfassung und Bewertung des Auenzustandes. Naturschutz und Biologische Vielfalt. Bundesamt für Naturschutz, Bonn–Bad Godesberg

  • Burkhard B, Kroll F, Nedkov S, Müller F (2012) Mapping ecosystem service supply, demand and budgets. Ecol Ind 21:17–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cammerer H, Thieken A, Verburg P (2012) Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria). Nat Hazards 68(3):1243–1270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan KMA, Shaw MR, Cameron DR, Underwood EC, Daily GC (2006) Conservation planning for ecosystem services. PLoS Biol 4:2138–2152

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chin A (2006) Urban transformation of river landscapes in a global context. Geomorphology 79:460–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costanza R, d Arge R, de Groot R, Farber S, Grasso M, Hannon M, Limburg K, Naeem S, ONeill RV, Paruelo J, Raskin RG, Sutton P, van den Belt M (1997) The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387:253–260

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • de Kok J-L, Grossmann M (2010) Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River. Nat Hazards 52:143–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Roo A, Schmuck G, Perdigao V, Thielen J (2003) The influence of historic land use changes and future planned land use scenarios on floods in the Oder catchment. Phys Chem Earth B 28:1291–1300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eigenbrod F, Bell VA, Davies HN, Heinemeyer A, Armsworth PR, Gaston KJ (2011) The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 278:3201–3208

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Elfert S, Bormann H (2010) Simulated impact of past and possible future land use changes on the hydrological response of the Northern German lowland ‘Hunte’ catchment. J Hydrol 383:245–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • European Commission (2007) Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2007:288:0027:0034:EN:PDF. Accessed 24 Oct 2013

  • Fisher B, Turner RK, Morling P (2009) Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making. Ecol Econ 68:643–653

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foken T (2007) Das Klima von Bayreuth–Status quo und Aufgaben für die Stadtplanung. Zeitschrift für Angewandte Geographie, 31:150–152

  • Hall J, Sayers P, Dawson R (2005) National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England and Wales. Nat Hazards 36:147–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • HOPLA Main (2012) Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Plan: Einzugsgebiet bayrischer Main. Regierungen von Unterfranken, Regierung von Oberfranken, Regierung von Mittelfranken, and Regierung der Oberpfalz, http://www.hopla-main.de/, last time accessed 28 Nov 2012

  • Huang B, Zhang L, Wu B (2009) Spatiotemporal analysis of rural–urban land conversion. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 23:379–398

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change: the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York

  • Jonkman SN, Brinkhuis-Jak M, Kok M (2004) Cost benefit analysis and flood damage mitigation in the Netherlands. Heron 49:95–111

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreibich H, Seifert I, Thieken AH, Lindquist E, Wagner K, Merz B (2011) Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany. Reg Environ Chang 11:59–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Lugeri N, Dankers R, Hirabayashi Y, Doll P, Pinskwar I, Dysarz T, Hochrainer S, Matczak P (2010) Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe-review of projections for the future. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 15(7):641–656

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lammersen R, Engel H, van de Langemheen W, Buiteveld H (2002) Impact of river training and retention measures on flood peaks along the Rhine. J Hydrol 267:115–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landesamt für Vermessung und Geoinformation (2011) Digitales Basis-Landschaftsmodell (AAA-Modellierung).Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie. Leipzig

  • Lautenbach S, Kugel C, Lausch A, Seppelt R (2011) Analysis of historic changes in regional ecosystem service provisioning using land use data. Ecol Ind 11:676–687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • LfU (2003) Hydraulik naturnaher Fließgewässer; Teil 4—Numerische Modelle zur Strömungssimulation. Landesanstalt für Umweltschutz Baden-Württemberg. Karlsruhe

  • Liaw A, Wiener M (2002) Classification and regression by random forest. R News 2:18–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Menoni S, Molinari D et al (2012) Assessing multifaceted vulnerability and resilience in order to design risk-mitigation strategies. Nat Hazards 64(3):2057–2082

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Nedkov S, Burkhard B (2012) Flood regulating ecosystem services–mapping supply and demand, in the Etropole municipality, Bulgaria. Ecol Ind 21:67–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petrow T, Merz B (2009) Trends in flood magnitude, frequency and seasonality in Germany in the period 1951–2002. J Hydrol 371:129–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munich Re (2013) Überschwemmungen dominieren Naturkatastrophenstatistik im 1. Halbjahr 2013 Munich Re. Group, Munich

  • Schönbein J (2011) Zur Rekonstruktion von Hochwasserereignissen in Europa aus holzanatomischen Parametern und historischen Quellen. Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg i. Brsg, Freiburg

  • Stürck J, Poortinga A et al (2014) Mapping ecosystem services: the supply and demand of flood regulation services in Europe. Ecol Ind 38:198–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sui J, Koehler G, Krol F (2010) Characteristics of rainfall, snowmelt and runoff in the headwater region of the Main river watershed in Germany. Water Resour Manag 24:2167–2186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Syrbe R-U, Walz U (2012) Spatial indicators for the assessment of ecosystem services: providing, benefiting and connecting areas and landscape metrics. Ecol Ind 21:80–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner RK, Georgiou S, Fisher B (2008) Valuing ecosystem services: the case of multifunctional wetlands. Earthscan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • VanDerWal J, Falconi L, Januchowski S, Shoo L, Storlie C (2012) Species distribution modelling tools: tools for processing data associated with species distribution modelling exercises. Package ‘SDMTools’

  • White G (1945) Human adjustment to floods. Department of geography research paper 29. The University of Chicago, Chicago

  • White G (1974) Natural hazards research: concepts, methods, and policy implications. In: White G (ed) Natural hazards—local, national, global. Oxford University Press, London, pp 3–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood S (2011) GAMs with GCV/AIC/REML smoothness estimation and GAMMs by PQL, Version 1.7-11

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank the Bavarian Environment Agency and the Bavarian Agency for Surveying and Geographic Information for the provisioning of spatial datasets. An earlier version of the manuscript benefitted from critical suggestions by three reviewers and the editor.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Professorship of Ecological Services, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstrasse 30, 95440, Bayreuth, Germany

    Andrea Früh-Müller

  2. Department of Remote Sensing, University of Würzburg, Campus Hubland Nord 86, 97074, Würzburg, Germany

    Martin Wegmann

  3. Department of Animal Ecology, Justus-Liebig University, Heinrich-Buff Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany

    Andrea Früh-Müller & Thomas Koellner

Authors
  1. Andrea Früh-Müller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Martin Wegmann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Thomas Koellner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrea Früh-Müller.

Additional information

Editor: Wolfgang Cramer.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (PDF 309 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Früh-Müller, A., Wegmann, M. & Koellner, T. Flood exposure and settlement expansion since pre-industrial times in 1850 until 2011 in north Bavaria, Germany. Reg Environ Change 15, 183–193 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0633-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0633-9

Keywords

  • Flood risk
  • Flood regulation
  • Historical maps
  • Landscape function
  • GIS
  • Spatial pattern analysis