Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 14, Issue 1, pp 295–306

Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios

  • H. Fraga
  • A. C. Malheiro
  • J. Moutinho-Pereira
  • G. V. Jones
  • F. Alves
  • J. G. Pinto
  • J. A. Santos
Original Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0490-y

Cite this article as:
Fraga, H., Malheiro, A.C., Moutinho-Pereira, J. et al. Reg Environ Change (2014) 14: 295. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0490-y

Abstract

Wine production is strongly affected by weather and climate and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. In Portugal, viticulture and wine production are an important economic activity. In the present study, current bioclimatic zoning in Portugal (1950–2000) and its projected changes under future climate conditions (2041–2070) are assessed through the analysis of an aggregated, categorized bioclimatic index (CatI) at a very high spatial resolution (near 1 km). CatI incorporates the most relevant bioclimatic characteristics of a given region, thus allowing the direct comparison between different regions. Future viticultural zoning is achieved using data from 13 climate model transient experiments following the A1B emission scenario. These data are downscaled using a two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling. This downscaling approach allows characterizing mesoclimatic influences on viticulture throughout Portugal. Results for the recent past depict the current spatial variability of Portuguese viticultural regions. Under future climate conditions, the current viticultural zoning is projected to undergo significant changes, which may represent important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. The changes are quite robust across the different climate models. A lower bioclimatic diversity is also projected, resulting from a more homogeneous warm and dry climate in most of the wine regions. This will lead to changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region.

Keywords

Viticultural bioclimatic zoning Downscaling Climate models Regionalization Portugal 

Supplementary material

10113_2013_490_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (829 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 829 kb)

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • H. Fraga
    • 1
  • A. C. Malheiro
    • 1
  • J. Moutinho-Pereira
    • 1
  • G. V. Jones
    • 2
  • F. Alves
    • 3
  • J. G. Pinto
    • 4
    • 5
  • J. A. Santos
    • 1
  1. 1.Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological SciencesUniversity of Trás-os-Montes e Alto DouroVila RealPortugal
  2. 2.Department of Environmental StudiesSouthern Oregon UniversityAshlandUSA
  3. 3.ADVID Associação para o Desenvolvimento da Viticultura DurienseGodimPortugal
  4. 4.Institute for Geophysics and MeteorologyUniversity of CologneCologneGermany
  5. 5.Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK

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