Economic effects of global warming under stock growth uncertainty: the European sardine fishery
- 412 Downloads
Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimisation problems to better understand the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper, a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally, then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.
KeywordsGlobal warming Stock growth uncertainty European sardine fishery Transitional dynamics
We thank M. Dolores Garza-Gil, Julia Torralba, and Manuel M. Varela-Lafuente for their valuable comments and suggestions. Financial aid from the European Commission (MYFISH, FP7-KBBE-2011-5, nº 289257), and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2009-14697-C02-02, ECO2012-39098-C06-00, ECO2012-39098-C06-01 and ECO2012-35820) are gratefully acknowledged. The first draft of the paper was written while Jose María Da Rocha was visiting Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica-CSIC, and the hospitality extended by its members is gratefully acknowledged. Sebastián Villasante acknowledges the financial support of the Latin American and Caribbean Environmental Economic Program (LACEEP) and the Norwegian Research Council. The author is also grateful to the Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics (The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden) for awarding him the Karl-Göran Mäler Scholarship.
- Clark CW (1976) Mathematical bioeconomics. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Crèpin A-S, Walker B, Polasky S, Steffen W, Galaz V, Folke C, Rockström J (2011) Global dynamics, multiple shocks and resilience. Planetary stewardship and catastrophic shifts in the Earth system. Beijer Discussion Paper N° 288, The Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden. http://www.beijer.kva.se/pubinfo.php?pub_id=602. Accessed 26 June 2011
- Cushing DH (1975) Marine ecology and fisheries. Cambridge University Press, United KingdomGoogle Scholar
- Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2012) State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2012. SOFIA, FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department. http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/i2727e/i2727e00.htm. Accessed 27 April 2012
- International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) (2010) Report of the Working Group on Anchovy and Sardine (WGANSA). 24–28 June 2010, Vigo, Spain. ICES CM 2010/ACOM:16, pp 290Google Scholar
- International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) (2011a) Advice Book 7. 7.4.7. Advice July 2011. ECOREGION. Bay of Biscay and Atlantic Iberian waters. STOCK. Sardine in Divisions VIIIc and IXaGoogle Scholar
- International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) (2011b) ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2010. Prepared by the Working Group on Oceanic HydrographyGoogle Scholar
- Medel C (2011) The effects of global warming on fisheries. Central Bank of Chile, MPRA Paper N° 28373. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28373/. Accessed 25 January 2012
- Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends: findings of the condition and trends working group. Island Press, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
- MRAG (2010) Towards sustainable fisheries management: international examples of innovation. MRAG Ltd., LondonGoogle Scholar
- Poff NL, Brinson MM, Day JW Jr (2002) Aquatic ecosystems and global climate change: potential impacts on inland freshwater and coastal wetland ecosystems in the United States. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, ArlingtonGoogle Scholar