Participatory foresight analysis of the cash crop sector at the regional level: case study from southwestern France

Abstract

Following the request of local stakeholders, a multidisciplinary group of experts was formed to implement a foresight analysis of the cash crop sector in the Midi-Pyrénées region. The group developed a four-step multidisciplinary and participatory methodology that defined the objectives, established a shared diagnosis of the issue raised in the regional cash crop sector, implemented a foresight analysis, and then created a graphical summary. Three types of working groups (steering, restricted, and expanded) were involved with well-assigned tasks. The dynamic interactions between the different groups of stakeholders and scientists and the use of graphics and maps as a medium to identify critical areas, such as zones in which production or environmental issues, are declining or evolving, enabled a shared view of regional problems. The main contribution of this paper is the presentation of a participative methodology that enabled co-construction of three shared scenarios based on the combination of five major uncertainties: (i) change in agricultural markets and international trade; (ii) urbanization and regional planning; (iii) changing patterns of consumption and product processing; (iv) environmental issues in public policies; and (v) ability of farmers to implement innovative tools and methods.

Appendix: description of scenario 1: “decrease in cash crop production in a protected environment”

When the World Trade Organization establishes the “Millennium Round” agreements for enhanced trade in 2015, international trade in agricultural products increases in a more liberal context. Increasing demand from developing countries (e.g., India, China) increases agricultural and agrifood market trade. For Europe, the opening of new markets is accompanied by environmental degradation (e.g., the EU Water Framework Directive does not achieve its objectives by 2015). Under pressure from environment-oriented political and social forces in Europe, governments decide to focus environmental efforts on the agricultural sector.

National and local regulations start to put limits on farming intensification (e.g., low Treatment Frequency Indices, quotas, taxes on inputs, or resources used). Moreover, uncontrollable climatic risks impact farm yields. No technical solution is available due to lack of knowledge and irrelevant research solutions or because of prohibitive implementation costs and output prices. Following market liberalization, other countries (e.g., Ukraine, Brazil) and more favored regions (e.g., better natural resources, fewer climatic concerns) with lower production costs gain market shares from the Midi-Pyrénées region, especially in exports of durum wheat to North Africa.

The structural indicators of cash crop farming in the region are heavily modified: agricultural area decreases sharply, and the number of viable farms decreases. Farming is no longer attractive for settlement, and the rate of settlement falls. The remaining farms are highly diversified, and mean farm income falls sharply. Under environmental constraints and market opportunities, other production systems (e.g., fruits, vegetables) either find technically viable solutions or decline like cash crop systems due to technical deadlock. Extra income is obtained from diversified non-agricultural activities such as environmental management in rural and suburban areas. Farmers are now the “Guardians of Nature” who receive public support for this role. They jointly supply environmental and recreational services and agricultural market outputs. They manage the edge of suburban areas, creating conservation areas, hunting areas, hiking paths, and areas of increased biodiversity. Rural areas become subordinate to urban areas. The legal status of “farms” changes to allow the creation of “rural firms” not primarily based on the supply of agricultural goods but on the provision of environmental or social services.

Farm cooperative groups virtually disappear. Those that remain change their status and modify their supply structure to provide mainly consulting and regulatory services to urban inhabitants. They may maintain their headquarters locally, but they develop a strategy to buy land outside of France for agricultural production. Regionally, a marketing structure remains for selling raw materials to the processing industry. Cooperative groups compete with supermarkets. Employment upstream and downstream from farms in the production chain falls sharply because of low levels of agricultural supply and fewer farmers. Consequently, farm training, research and extension services are limited, and structures such as “chambers of agriculture” disappear. Joint institutions of both ministries of agriculture and environment monitor the implementation of regulations.

Because of strong environmental regulations, water quality, biodiversity (fauna and flora), carbon and energy balances, and greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture eventually improve. On the other hand, the import of processed or raw materials penalizes the overall regional environmental impact.

The region’s attractiveness, its landscape and quality of life, remains high. Even assuming the urban area continues to sprawl, conflicts between farmers and city inhabitants vanish due to farm abandonment. As a consequence, the price of farmland significantly decreases. The proximity of towns allows some farmers to sell their agricultural products while keeping their environmental conservation job.