Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Accelerating urban sprawl in depopulating regions: a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin

  • Papers from the GLOWA-Elbe Project
  • Published:
Regional Environmental Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The paper presents a method and results for the generation of future residential land use scenarios for the Elbe River Basin. The challenge of this study is to develop scenarios that consider two processes, accelerated urban sprawl in growth centres while peripheral regions are depopulating. The question is whether the demand for built-up areas can be reduced to achieve the objective of the German sustainability strategy. Current socioeconomic developments of the study area are described, and approaches to calculate residential land use demand are reviewed. Regionalised socioeconomic scenarios of the IPCC-SRES as well as households and housing forecasts are applied to calculate residential land demand for regions. The Land Use Scanner, a spatially explicit land use change model, is then used to allocate the demand on grid-cells within the spatial planning units. The results show a shift of residential developments from urban areas in general to agglomerations leading to a polarisation of developments. Residential land consumption can only be minimised to achieve the sustainable development goals if a strict land use policy with the implementation of higher building densities, activation of inner city quarters and application of effective planning instruments is followed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adam B, Göddecke-Stellmann J (2002) Metropolregionen—Konzepte, Definitionen und Herausforderungen. Informationen zur Raumentwicklung 9:513–525

    Google Scholar 

  • Agarwal C, Green GM, Grove JM, Evans TP, Schweik CM (2002) A review and assessment of land-use change models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice. General technical report. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Newton Square, PA

  • Alig RJ, Healy RG (1987) Urban and built-up land area changes in the United States: an empirical investigation of determinants. Land Econ 63:215–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen J, Lu K (2003) Modeling and prediction of future urban growth in the charleston region of South Carolina: a GIS-based integrated approach. Conserv Ecol 8. http://www.consecol.org/vol8/iss2/art2 [online]

  • Barredo JI, Petrov L, Sagris V, Lavalle C, Genovese E (2005) Towards an integrated scenario approach for spatial planning and natural hazards mitigation. European Commission, DG-Joint Research Centre, EUR 21900 EN

  • BBR (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung) (1996) Raumordnungsprognose 2010. Teilbereiche: Private Haushalte, Wohnungen, Wohnbauland. Materialien zur Raumentwicklung 74

  • BBR (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung) (2001) Wohnungsprognose 2015. Berichte 10, Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung, Bonn

  • BBR (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung) (2005a) Raumordnungsbericht 2005. vol 21, Bonn

  • BBR (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung) (2005b) Mengensteuerung der Siedlungsflächenentwicklung durch Plan und Zertifikat. vol 4/5, Bonn

  • BBR (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung) (2006) Raumordnungsprognose 2020/2050. Berichte vol 23, Bonn

  • BBR (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung) (2007) INKAR 2006—Indikatoren, Karten und Graphiken zur Raum- und Stadtentwicklung in Deutschland und in Europa

  • BBR (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung) (2009) Einflussfaktoren der Neuinanspruchnahme von Flächen. Forschungen vol 139, Bonn

  • Betzholz T, Wöllper F, La Placa G (2005) Der Flächenverbrauch in Baden-Württemberg und seine wichtigsten Bestimmungsgründe. Eine Analyse unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des demographischen Wandels. Statistische Analysen, report no. 7/2005, Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg, Stuttgart

  • Bicik I, Jelecek L, Stepanek V (2001) Land-use changes and their social driving forces in Czechia in the 19th and 20th centuries. Land Use Policy 18:65–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bizer K, Ewringmann D, Bergmann E, Dosch F, Einig K, Hutter G (1998) Mögliche Maßnahmen, Instrumente und Wirkungen einer Steuerung der Verkehrs- und Siedlungsflächennutzung. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Blackley DM, Follain JR (1987) Tests of locational equilibrium in the standard urban model. Land Econ 63:46–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blazejczak J, Gornig M, Schulz E, Schäpel C (2008) Szenarien zur Demographie und Ökonomie in der Elbe-Region. Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet—Risiken und Optionen. Schlussbericht zum BMBF-Vorhaben GLOWA-Elbe II, Potsdam

  • Bogner D, Bartl K (2001) Modell zur Prognose der Ausbreitung von Siedlungen im Bereich urbaner Zentren. CORP—Competence Center for Urban and Regional Development, Wien, pp 415–418

    Google Scholar 

  • Braun R, Faller B (2005) Techem-empirica-Leerstandsindex. Methodik, Länderergebnisse und Bestellformular, empirica. Forschung und Beratung, Bonn

    Google Scholar 

  • Brouwer J, Mattemaker L, Heida H (2002) Ruimtevraag wonen, werken en voorzieningen herberekend. Verkenning 2000–2030 voor deel 3 van de Vijfde Nota Ruimtelijke Ordening. ABF Research, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Busch G (2006) Future European agricultural landscapes—what can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:121–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Couch C, Karecha J, Nuissl H, Rink D (2005) Decline and sprawl: an evolving type of urban development—observed in Liverpool and Leipzig. Eur Plann Stud 13:117–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CRR (Centrum pro regionální rozvoj ČR) (2006) Integriertes regionales Informationssystem

  • de Nijs TCM, Engelen G, White R, van Delden H, Uljee I (2001) De LeefOmgevingsVerkenner. Technische Documentatie. RIVM rapport 408505 007/2001, RIVM, Bilthoven

  • de Nijs TCM, Kuiper R, Crommentuijn L (2005) Het landgebruik in 2030. Een projectie van de Nota Ruimte. 711931010/2005, Milieu en Natuurplanbureau, Bilthoven

  • Dekkers JEC, Koomen E (2007) Land-use simulation for water management. Application of the Land Use Scanner in two large-scale scenario studies. In: Koomen E, Stillwell J, Bakema A, Scholten HJ (eds) Modelling land-use change. Progress and Application, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Dosch F, Beckmann G (1999a) Siedlungsflächenentwicklung in Deutschland—auf Zuwachs programmiert. Informationen zur Raumentwicklung 8:493–509

    Google Scholar 

  • Dosch F, Beckmann G (1999b) Trends und Szenarien der Siedlungsflächenentwicklung bis 2010. In: Strubelt W, Gatzweiler H-P, Kaltenbrunner R (eds) Perspektiven der künftigen Raum- und Siedlungsentwicklung, vol 11/12. Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung, Bonn, pp 827–842

    Google Scholar 

  • EEA (2006) Urban sprawl in Europe. The ignored challenge. European environment agency, report 10, Kopenhagen

  • Engelen G, White R, Uljee I, Drazan P (1995) Using cellular automata for integrated modelling of socio-environmental systems. Environ Monit Assess 34:203–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fritsch U, Katzenmaier D, Bronstert A (2000) Land-use and land-cover scenarios for flood risk analysis and river basin management. In: Bronstert A, Bismuth C, Menzel L (eds) European conference on advanced floodresearch, Potsdam, pp 266–275

  • Geoghegan J, Wainger LA, Bockstael NE (1997) Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS. Ecol Econ 23:251–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haase D, Schwarz N (2009) Simulation models on human-nature interactions in urban landscapes: a review including spatial economics, system dynamics, cellular automata and agent-based approaches. Living Rev Landsc 3:1–45

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammer Siler George Associates (1998) Baseline subarea development allocations. Technical documentation, Colorado Springs. www.springsgov.com/Page.asp?NavID=858. Accessed 11 May 2007

  • Hardie I, Parks P, Gottleib P, Wear DN (2000) Responsiveness of rural and urban land use to land rent determinants in the US South. Land Econ 76:659–673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartje V, Ansmann T, Blazejczak J, Gömann H, Gornig M, Grossmann M, Hillenbrand T, Hoymann J, Kreins P, Markewitz P, Mutafoglu K, Richmann A, Sartorius C, Schulz E, Vögele S, Walz R (2008) Regionalisierung der Szenarioanalyse (der Antriebskräfte und des Nutzungsdruckes) des globalen Wandels für die Wasserwirtschaft. Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet—Risiken und Optionen. Kapitel 2 des Schlussberichts zum BMBF-Vorhaben GLOWA-Elbe II, Potsdam

  • Heida H (2002) PRIMOS: Prognosemodel voor bevolking, huishoudens en woningbehoefte23256/211. ABF Research, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Hilferink M, Rietveld P (1999) Land Use Scanner: an integrated GIS based model for long term projections of land use in urban and rural areas. J Geogr Inf Syst 1:155–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houet T, Hubert-Moy L (2006) Modelling and projecting land-use and land-cover changes with a cellular automaton in considering landscape trajectories: an improvement for simulation of plausible future states. EARSeL Proc 5:63–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoymann J (in press) Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin. Environ Plann B Plann Des

  • Iwanow I, Metzmacher M, Schmidt R, Waltersbacher M (2001) Zukünftige Wohnungsnachfrage und Neubaubedarf in Ost- und Westdeutschland. Eine Forschungskooperation zwischen IÖR und BBR. IÖR Texte 133, Institut für ökologische Raumentwicklung e.V. Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung, Dresden, Bonn

  • Jackson L, Bird S, Matheny R, O’Neill R, White D, Boesch K, Koviach J (2004) A regional approach to projecting land-use change and resulting ecological vulnerability. Environ Monit Assess 94:231–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klosterman RE, Siebert L, Kim J-W, Hoque MA, Parveen A (2006) What if evaluation of growth management strategies for a declining region. Int J Environ Technol Manage 6:79–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koomen E, Buurman J (2002) Economic theory and land prices in land use modeling. 5th AGILE conference on geographic information science, Palma

  • Kuhlman T, Tabeau A, Gaaff A, van Tongeren F, Dekkers JEC (2005) Linking models in land use simulation: application of the Land Use Scanner to changes in agricultural area. 45th Congress of the European regional science association, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

  • Lavalle C, Barredo JI, McCormick N, Engelen G, White R, Uljee I (2004) The MOLAND model for urban and regional growth forecast. A tool for the definition of sustainable development paths. European Commission, DG-Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, EUR 21480 EN

  • LZB (Landeszentralbank in Berlin und Brandenburg) (2001) Stand und Perspektiven des Wohnungsbaus in Brandenburg. In: Jahresbericht, pp 65–108

  • Muth RF (1971) The derived demand for urban residential land. Urban Stud 8:243–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000) Special report emissions scenarios, Cambridge

  • Openshaw S, Taylor PJ (1981) The modifiable areal unit problem. In: Wrigley N, Bennett RJ (eds) Quantitative geography: a British view. Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, pp 60–69

    Google Scholar 

  • Penn-Bressel G (2003) Reduzierung der Flächeninanspruchnahme durch Siedlung und Verkehr. Materialienband. Umweltbundesamt (ed) Texte, Berlin

  • Rajan KS, Shibasaki R (2001) A GIS based integrated land use/cover change model to study agricultural and urban land use changes. 22nd Asian conference on remote sensing. Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP), National University of Singapore, Singapore Institute of Surveyors and Valuers (SISV), Asian Association on Remote Sensing (AARS), Singapore

  • Reginster I, Rounsevell M (2006) Scenarios of future urban land use in Europe. Environ Plann B Plann Des 33:619–636

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • RNE (Rat für Nachhaltige Entwicklung) (2004) Mehr Wert für die Fläche: Das “Ziel-30-ha” für die Nachhaltigkeit in Stadt und Land

  • Schaldach R, Priess J (2008) Integrated models of the land system: a review of modelling approaches on the regional to global scale. Living Rev Landsc 2:1–34

    Google Scholar 

  • Schotten CGJ, Goetgeluk R, Hilferink M, Rietveld P, Scholten HJ (2001) Residential construction, land use and the environment. Simulations for the Netherlands using a GIS-based land use model. Environ Model Assess 6:133–143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seto KC, Kaufmann RK (2003) Modeling the drivers of urban land use change in the Pearl River Delta, China: integrating remote sensing with socioeconomic data. Land Econ 79:106–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siedentop S (2008) Die Rückkehr der Städte? Zur Plausibilität der Reurbanisierungshypothese. Informationen zur Raumentwicklung 3(4):193–210

    Google Scholar 

  • Siedentop S, Kausch S (2004) Die räumliche Struktur des Flächenverbrauchs in Deutschland. eine auf Gemeindedaten basierende Analyse für den Zeitraum 1997 bis 2001. Raumforschung und Raumordnung 62:36–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smits PC, Annoni A (1999) Spatial analysis of land_use changes as knowledge tools in support of European spatial policies and ecosystem health. Ecosyst Health 5:275–584

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • STABU (Statistisches Bundesamt) (2008) Statistical yearbook 2008 for the Federal Republic of Germany, Wiesbaden

  • Ströbl B, Wenzel V, Pfützner B (2003) Simulation der Siedlungsflächenentwicklung als Teil des Globalen Wandels und ihr Einfluß auf den Wasserhaushalt im Großraum Berlin. In: Gerstengarbe F-W (ed) PIK-report. Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Tötzer T, Köstl M, Steinnocher K (2007) Scenarios of land use change in Europe base on socio-economic and demographic driving forces. In: Schrenk M, Popovich VV, Benedikt J (eds) REAL CORP 007, Wien, pp 141–150

  • Van der Hoeven N, Aerts J, Van der Klis H, Koomen E (2008 (forthcoming)) An integrated discussion support system for new Dutch flood risk management strategies. In: Geertman S, Stillwell J (eds) Planning support systems: best practices and new methods. Springer, Berlin

  • Verburg PH, Schot P, Dijst MJ, Veldkamp A (2004) Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal 61:309–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, Schulp CJE, Witte N, Veldkamp A (2006) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:39–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vesterby M, Heimlich RE (1991) Land use and demographic change: results from fast-growth counties. Land Econ 67:279–291

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • White R, Engelen G (2000) High-resolution integrated modelling of the spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems. Comput Environ Urban Syst 24:383–400

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White R, Engelen G, Uljee I (1997) The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics. Environ Plann B Plann Design 24:323–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White R, Engelen G, Uljee I, Lavalle C, Erlich D (1999) Developing an urban land use simulator for European cities. 5th EC-GIS workshop, Italy, pp 179–190

  • White R, Engelen G, Uljee I (2000) Modelling land use change with linked cellular automata and socioeconomic models: a tool for exploring the impact of climate change on the Island of St. Lucia. In: Hill MJ, Aspinall RJ (eds) Spatial information for land use management. Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, New York, pp 189–204

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study has been funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research within the project GLOWA-Elbe II. The author is very grateful for technical support by, fruitful discussions with and valuable remarks of Eric Koomen and Jasper Dekkers from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut für Landschaftsarchitektur und Umweltplanung, Technische Universität Berlin, Sekr. EB 4-2, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623, Berlin, Germany

    Jana Hoymann

Authors
  1. Jana Hoymann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jana Hoymann.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hoymann, J. Accelerating urban sprawl in depopulating regions: a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin. Reg Environ Change 11, 73–86 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0120-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0120-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation