A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis

Abstract

The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, understanding, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for modeling the phenomenon of intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS by non-disclosure. The model is built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the risky conduct of HIV+ individuals in any given community. The proposed model uses a hypothetical cross impact matrix that relates pairs of attributes. The factors that impact non-disclosure are identified by simulating the model through dynamic difference equations. After the simulation results are reviewed, two policies are introduced and tested in order to observe the progress in the system state.

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Correspondence to Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber.

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Pedamallu, C.S., Ozdamar, L., Kropat, E. et al. A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis. Cent Eur J Oper Res 20, 319–336 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-010-0183-2

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Keywords

  • HIV transmission by non-disclosure
  • Cross impact analysis
  • System dynamics