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A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis

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Abstract

The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, understanding, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for modeling the phenomenon of intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS by non-disclosure. The model is built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the risky conduct of HIV+ individuals in any given community. The proposed model uses a hypothetical cross impact matrix that relates pairs of attributes. The factors that impact non-disclosure are identified by simulating the model through dynamic difference equations. After the simulation results are reviewed, two policies are introduced and tested in order to observe the progress in the system state.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, USA

    Chandra Sekhar Pedamallu

  2. The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Chandra Sekhar Pedamallu

  3. Department of Systems Engineering, Yeditepe University, Kayisdagi, Istanbul, 34755, Turkey

    Linet Ozdamar

  4. Department of Informatics, Institute for Theoretical Computer Science, Mathematics and Operations Research, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85577, Neubiberg, Germany

    Erik Kropat

  5. Departments of Financial Mathematics, Scientific Computing and Actuarial Sciences, Institute of Applied Mathematics, Middle East Technical University, 06531, Ankara, Turkey

    Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber

  6. Faculty of Economics, Business and Law, University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany

    Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber

  7. Center for Research on Optimization and Control, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

    Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber

  8. Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Malaysia

    Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber

Authors
  1. Chandra Sekhar Pedamallu
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  2. Linet Ozdamar
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  3. Erik Kropat
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  4. Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber
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Correspondence to Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber.

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Pedamallu, C.S., Ozdamar, L., Kropat, E. et al. A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis. Cent Eur J Oper Res 20, 319–336 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-010-0183-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-010-0183-2

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