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The predictor of mortality outcome in adult patients with Ebola virus disease during the 2014–2015 outbreak in Guinea

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the association of any demographic and clinical factors with mortality outcome among adult patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. This retrospective observational study analyzed medical records of laboratory confirmed EVD adult patients during the 2014–2015 EVD outbreak in Guinea. The associations between any demographic or clinical variables and mortality outcome of EVD were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of 2,310 EVD adult patients included for analysis, the overall case fatality rate was 68.1%. Univariate analyses identified factors possibly associated with mortality outcome, including patient age (p < 0.001), history of visiting or close contact with a suspected or confirmed EVD patient (p = 0.035), and seven clinical symptoms on admission, i.e., fever (p = 0.003), hiccups (p < 0.001), vomiting (p = 0.003), diarrhea (p < 0.001), cough (p = 0.001), sore throat (p = 0.016), and unexplained bleeding (p = 0.021). The multivariate analysis showed that patient age was independently associated with mortality outcome of EVD (OR = 1.06; 95%CI = 1.03–1.09; p < 0.001), while none the of clinical symptoms on admission were significantly associated with the mortality outcome. Our analysis indicates that older age was the only independent factor associated with death among EVD adult patients in Guinea. This suggests that older EVD patients should receive intensive medical care and be carefully monitored.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the staff at the ETCs in Guinea, the WHO Ebola Response Team, the Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene (Guinea), and other non-governmental organizations for their efforts on collecting patient information during the EVD outbreak.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Medicine, University Gamal Abdel Nasser of Conakry, Conakry, Guinea

    M. S. Cherif, M. P. Diallo, E. Le Gall, D. Kassé, A. Koné, M. Diakité, F. Camara & N. Magassouba

  2. Department of Immunogenetics, Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki, 852-8523, Japan

    M. S. Cherif & N. Koonrungsesomboon

  3. Pôle Régional de Cancérologie Bretagne, Rennes, France

    E. Le Gall

  4. Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene, Conakry, Guinea

    F. Cherif

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  1. M. S. Cherif
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  2. N. Koonrungsesomboon
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Correspondence to M. S. Cherif.

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This work was performed as part of an emergency response for the EVD outbreak under mandate by the government of Guinea, thus it did not undergo ethical review.

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Cherif, M.S., Koonrungsesomboon, N., Diallo, M.P. et al. The predictor of mortality outcome in adult patients with Ebola virus disease during the 2014–2015 outbreak in Guinea. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 36, 689–695 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10096-016-2850-2

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