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A mathematical model to study the effect of hepatitis B virus vaccine and antivirus treatment among the Canadian Inuit population

European Journal of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases volume 29, Article number: 63 (2010) Cite this article

Abstract

The prevalence of hepatitis B among the Canadian Inuit population is 4%. This study will use a mathematical model to compare the roles of vaccination and therapy to predict future prevalence and incidence among the Canadian Inuit population for the next 50 years. We applied a mathematical model developed by Medley et al. (Nat Med 7(5):619–624, 2001), combined with data on hepatitis B incidence, prevalence, and vaccination coverage, to predict trends of hepatitis B virus (HBV) among the Inuit population over the next 50 years. The current estimated prevalence of HBV is 6.04% and the incidence is 3.4/100,000 persons among Canadian Inuit. If HBV vaccination coverage levels of 47.2% remain unchanged, the prevalence of HBV will decrease to 1.91% and the incidence will decrease to 0.81/100,000 persons by 2058. If vaccination coverage levels are increased to 57.2%, the prevalence and incidence of HBV will decrease to 1.74% and 0.63/100,000 persons, respectively. If we increase both immunization and therapy by 10%, this will produce the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence, to 1.56% and 0.54/100,000 persons, respectively. The combination of immunization and treatment programs seems to have the best result in decreasing the prevalence and incidence of HBV among the Inuit population.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Professor G. Y. Minuk, University of Manitoba, Canada, for his permission to use the Inuit hepatitis B data.

The authors also thank Dr. Daniel Lavanchy, Department of Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response at the World Health Organization, for his technical support.

The authors also thank Sheila Holmes, Public Health Agency of Canada, for her help with the article revisions.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Blood Safety Surveillance Division, Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control, Public Health Agency of Canada, 100 Eglantine Dr. Mail Stop: 0601E2, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0K9, Canada

    C. O’Leary, Z. Hong & J. Wu

  2. Surveillance and Risk Assessment Division, Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0K9, Canada

    F. Zhang

  3. Cadham Provincial Laboratory, Winnipeg, MB, R3C 3Y1, Canada

    M. Dawood & G. Smart

  4. Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada

    K. Kaita

Authors
  1. C. O’Leary
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  2. Z. Hong
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  3. F. Zhang
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  4. M. Dawood
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  5. G. Smart
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  6. K. Kaita
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  7. J. Wu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Z. Hong.

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O’Leary, C., Hong, Z., Zhang, F. et al. A mathematical model to study the effect of hepatitis B virus vaccine and antivirus treatment among the Canadian Inuit population. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 29, 63 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10096-009-0821-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10096-009-0821-6

Keywords

  • Immunization Coverage
  • Adefovir Dipivoxil
  • Immunization Rate
  • Inuit Population
  • Universal Immunization Program