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Estimation of the global prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability of rheumatoid arthritis in 2019 and forecasted incidence in 2040: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Abstract

Objective

We aimed to provide a better understanding of the secular trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) burden at the regional and national levels, contributing to identifying the areas with high burden needs and finding the potential areas requiring additional attention, which will facilitate the development of strategies tailored to RA burden.

Method

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 study. We presented the secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of RA needs by sex, age, sociodemographic index (SDI), region, country, and category between 1990 and 2019 using data from the GBD 2019 study. The age-standardized rates (ASR) and its estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) are employed to describe the secular trends in RA.

Results

Globally, there were an estimated 18.5 million [95% confidence interval (CI) 31.53 to 41.74)] prevalent cases of RA, with 1.07 million (95% CI 0.95 to 1.18) incident cases per year and almost 2.43 million YLDs (95% CI 1.68 to 3.28) in 2019. The age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates estimated for RA were 224.25 per 100,000 and 12.21 per 100,000 in 2019, with EAPCs of 0.37 (95% CI − 0.32, 0.42) and 0.30 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.34), respectively. The corresponding age-standardized YLDs estimated was 29.35 per 100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.33, 0.43). During the study period, the ASR of RA was consistently higher in females than in males. Moreover, the age-standardized YLD rate of RA was associated with the sociodemographic index (SDI) in 2019 across all 204 countries and territories (R = 0.28). The projections indicate that the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) trend will continue to increase from 2019 to 2040, with a projected ASIR of 10.48 and 4.63/100,000 for females and males, respectively.

Conclusions

RA is prevalent and remains a significant global public health challenge. Globally, the burden of RA has increased over the past 30 years and will continue to increase. Prevention and early treatment of RA are pivotal to avoiding disease onset and alleviating the enormous burden.

Key Points

• The burden of rheumatoid arthritis is increasing globally.

• Global estimates indicate that the number of RA incident cases will increase 1.4-fold globally, from approximately 1.07 million at the end of 2019 to approximately 1.5 million by 2040.

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Data availability

These data can be found in a public, open-access repository. The datasets used for the analyses can be found at http://ghdx.healthdata. org/gbd- results- tool.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the staff and collaborators of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation for making these publicly available data possible.

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Author notes

  1. Guang Shi, Xun Liao, and Zhao Lin contributed equally

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Orthopedics, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, 519000, Guangdong Province, China

    Guang Shi, Xun Liao, Zhao Lin, Wei Liu, Xue Luo & Xiyu Cai

  2. Department of Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, 519000, Guangdong Province, China

    Hongrui Zhan

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  1. Guang Shi
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Contributions

GS, XL, and ZL designed the study. GS, XL, ZL, WL, and XL analyzed the data and performed the statistical analyses. GS, XL, and ZL drafted the initial manuscript. HRZ and XYC reviewed the key elements of the drafted manuscript. All authors approved the final version of the manuscript.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Hongrui Zhan or Xiyu Cai.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

This study is based on a public database; therefore, ethical approval is not needed.

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Researchers did not involve patients or the public in the design, conduct, reporting, or dissemination of the study.

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Not required.

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The study was not commissioned; it was peer-reviewed.

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Shi, G., Liao, X., Lin, Z. et al. Estimation of the global prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability of rheumatoid arthritis in 2019 and forecasted incidence in 2040: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Clin Rheumatol 42, 2297–2309 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10067-023-06628-2

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