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Numerical modelling of the saline interface in coastal karstic aquifers within a conceptual model uncertainty framework

Modélisation numérique de l’interface saline dans des aquifères karstiques côtiers dans un contexte d’incertitude du modèle conceptuel

Modelación numérica de la interfaz salina en acuíferos kársticos costeros dentro de un marco de incertidumbre del modelo conceptual

基于概念模型不确定性框架的滨海岩溶含水层咸淡水界面数值模拟

Modelagem numérica da interface salina em aquíferos cársticos costeiros dentro de uma estrutura de incerteza do modelo conceitual

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Abstract

Numerical modelling is increasingly used as a tool for improving management strategies in aquifers and to support the design of comprehensive projects considering natural and anthropogenic processes. Overall, numerical simulation in karstic aquifers poses a major scientific challenge due to the non-Darcian groundwater flow dynamics. In specific cases, the equivalent porous medium approach has shown acceptable results, particularly in poorly karstified aquifers with regional/subregional scales such as this case. The Yucatan coastal karstic aquifer (Mexico) has been defined as a complex regional heterogeneous system, partially confined, thus allowing the discussion of multiple conceptual models. In this research, a two-dimensional numerical model of flow and transport was implemented using SEAWAT for the NW Yucatan aquifer. Four likely conceptual models were audited, calibrated and verified using hydrogeological field data, to select the best one, considering their fit and complexity. The numerical model accuracy was evaluated using the root-mean-square error, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency and the Pearson coefficient. The Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion were included for evaluating the complexity of the numerical models. In addition, the signal of tide propagation into the aquifer was assessed as a proxy to improve the numerical calibration process. Results show that the most complex numerical model has a better calibration than the simpler models, but the model accuracy is worse when compared to less complex numerical models in the verification exercise. This research offers enhancement in the knowledge of numerical modelling in heterogeneous coastal aquifers within a conceptual-model uncertainty setting.

Résumé

La modélisation numérique est de plus en plus utilisée comme un outil d’amélioration des stratégies de gestion des aquifères et d’appui à la conception de projets d’ensemble prenant en compte les processus naturels et anthropiques. En général, la simulation numérique des aquifères karstiques pose un défi scientifique majeur en raison d’une dynamique d’écoulement souterrain de type non-Darcy. Dans des cas spécifiques, l’approche par un milieu poreux équivalent a donné des résultats acceptables, particulièrement dans des aquifères peu karstifiés aux échelles régionales ou subrégionales, comme dans le cas présent. L’aquifère karstique côtier du Yucatan (Mexique) a été défini comme un système régional hétérogène complexe, en partie captif, permettant ainsi la discussion de nombreux modèles conceptuels. Dans la présente étude, un modèle numérique bi-dimensionnel d’écoulement et de transport a été réalisé sur l’aquifère NW du Yucatan en utilisant SEAWAT. Quatre modèles conceptuels comparables ont été audités, calés et vérifiés à l’aide des données hydrogéologiques de terrain, dans le but de sélectionner le meilleur, au vu de leur adéquation et de leur complexité. L’exactitude du modèle numérique a été évaluée en utilisant l’erreur quadratique moyenne, l’efficacité de Nash Sutcliffe et le coefficient de Pearson. Le critère d’information d’Akaike et le critère d’information de Bayesian ont été intégrés pour évaluer la complexité des modèles numériques. De plus, le signal de propagation de la marée dans l’aquifère a été évalué en tant que proxy pour améliorer le processus de calibration numérique. Les résultats montrent que le modèle numérique le plus complexe présente une meilleure calibration que les modèles plus simples, mais dans l’exercice de vérification l’exactitude du modèle est moins bonne que celle des modèles numériques moins complexes. Cette étude offre une amélioration de la compréhension du modèle numérique des aquifères côtiers hétérogènes dans un contexte d’incertitude du modèle conceptuel.

Resumen

La modelación numérica es una herramienta cada vez más utilizada para implementar estrategias de manejo de acuíferos y como soporte para el diseño de proyectos de ingeniería considerando los procesos naturales y antropogénicos. En general, la modelación numérica en acuíferos cársticos representa un desafío debido a que el flujo subterráneo puede ser no Darciano. En situaciones específicas—y como en este caso—el enfoque conocido como medio poroso equivalente ha mostrado resultados aceptables, particularmente en acuíferos poco carstificados con escalas regionales/subregionales. El acuífero costero cárstico de Yucatán (México) ha sido definido como un sistema regional complejo, heterogéneo y parcialmente confinado, lo que permite discutir múltiples modelos conceptuales. En esta investigación se implementó un modelo numérico de flujo y transporte bidimensional utilizando SEAWAT para el acuífero al NW de Yucatán. Se auditaron, calibraron y verificaron cuatro posibles modelos conceptuales utilizando datos hidrogeológicos de campo, para seleccionar el mejor de ellos, considerando su ajuste y su complejidad. La precisión del modelo numérico se evaluó utilizando la raíz media del error cuadrático, la eficiencia de Nash-Sutcliffe y el coeficiente de correlación de Pearson. Se incluyeron los criterios de información de Akaike y Bayesiano para evaluar la complejidad de cada modelo numérico. Adicionalmente, se incluyó la señal de la propagación de la marea en el acuífero como una mejoría en el proceso de calibración. Los resultados muestran que el modelo numérico más complejo tiene una calibración mejor en comparación con los modelos más simples, pero su precisión es menor a la de los modelos menos complejos durante el proceso de verificación. Esta investigación ofrece una mejoría en el conocimiento de la modelación numérica en acuíferos costeros heterogéneos con incertidumbres en la configuración del modelo conceptual.

摘要

数值模拟越来越多地被用作改进含水层管理战略的工具, 并支持考虑自然和人为过程的综合项目的设计。总体而言, 由于地下水流的非达西动力学特征, 岩溶含水层的数值模拟是一个重大的科学挑战。在特定情况下, 等效多孔介质方法可以获得较为理想的结果, 特别是在区域/次区域尺度岩溶发育较差的含水层中, 例如本案例。尤卡坦滨海岩溶含水层(墨西哥)被定义为一个复杂的区域非均质系统, 局部承压, 因此可以讨论多个概念模型。本研究以尤卡坦西北部含水层为研究对象, 利用SEAWAT建立二维水流传输数值模型。利用水文地质场地数据, 对四种可能的概念模型进行了拟合、校准和验证, 结合其适用性和复杂性选择最佳的概念模型。利用均方根误差、Nash-Sutcliffe效率和Pearson系数对数值模型的精度进行评估。采用Akaike信息准则和Bayesian信息准则对数值模型的复杂性进行评估。此外, 潮汐传播到含水层的信号被作为一个替代指标, 以改进数值校准过程。结果表明, 最复杂的数值模型比简单的模型有更好的校正效果, 但在验证过程中其模型精度要低于相对简单的数值模型。这项研究通过设置概念模型不确定性提高了对非均质滨海含水层数值模拟的认识。

Resumo

A modelagem numérica está sendo usada cada vez mais como uma ferramenta para melhorar estratégias de gestão em aquíferos e como suporte a concepção de projetos considerando processos naturais e antropogênicos. No geral, simulações numéricas em aquíferos cársticos representa um grande desafio científico devido à dinâmica não Darciana do fluxo subterrâneo. Em certos casos, a abordagem da equivalência de meios porosos tem mostrado resultados aceitáveis, particularmente em aquíferos pobremente carstificados com escalas regionais/sub-regionais, como este caso. O aquífero cárstico da costa de Yucatan (México) tem sido definido como um complexo sistema regional heterogêneo, parcialmente confinado, permitindo, portanto, a discussão de múltiplos modelos conceituais. Nesta pesquisa, um modelo numérico bidimensional de fluxo e transporte foi implementado usando SEAWAT para o aquífero no nordeste de Yucatan. Quatro prováveis modelos conceituais foram auditados, calibrados e verificados usando dados hidrogeológicos de campo, para selecionar o melhor, considerando seu ajuste e complexidade. A acurácia do modelo numérico foi avaliada usando a raiz do erro médio quadrático médio, eficiência de Nash Sutcliffe e coeficiente de Pearson. O critério de informação Akaike e o critério de informação Bayesiano foram incluídos para avaliação da complexidade dos modelos numéricos. Além disso, o sinal de propagação da maré dentro do aquífero foi avaliado como um intermediário (proxy) para melhorar o processo de calibração numérica. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo numérico mais complexo teve uma melhor calibração do que os modelos simples, mas a acurácia do modelo é pior quando comparado com os modelos menos complexos no exercício de verificação. Esta pesquisa oferece aprimoramento no conhecimento da modelagem numérica em aquíferos heterogêneos costeiros dentro de um contexto de incertezas do modelo conceitual.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Engineering and Coastal Process Laboratory (LIPC), Engineering Institute (UNAM) and the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), Regional Management of the Yucatan Peninsula, for the support and facilities provided for the realization of the present research. We are also very grateful to the associate editor and reviewers whose valuable comments contributed to improving this manuscript.

Funding

We also thank the National Coastal Resilience Laboratory (LANRESC) and the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT) for providing financial support.

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Correspondence to Antonio Hernández-Espriú.

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Canul-Macario, C., Salles, ., Hernández-Espriú, A. et al. Numerical modelling of the saline interface in coastal karstic aquifers within a conceptual model uncertainty framework. Hydrogeol J 29, 2347–2362 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-021-02379-z

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