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Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin, eastern China: a coupled model approach

Evaluation de l’influence du changement climatique et du détournement d’eau entre bassins Sur le bassin versant de la rivière Haihe dans l’Est de la Chine: une approche de modélisation couplée

Evaluación de la influencia del cambio climático y el trasvase de agua entre cuencas en la Cuenca del río Haihe, este de China: un enfoque de Modelo acoplado

耦合模型法评估气候变化和跨流域调水对中国东部海河流域的影响

Avaliando a influência da mudança climática e transposição de água entre bacias na bacia do Rio Haihe, China oriental: uma abordagem de Modelo acoplado

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Abstract

The modeling of changes in surface water and groundwater in the areas of inter-basin water diversion projects is quite difficult because surface water and groundwater models are run separately most of the time and the lack of sufficient data limits the application of complex surface-water/groundwater coupling models based on physical laws, especially for developing countries. In this study, a distributed surface-water and groundwater coupling model, named the distributed time variant gain model–groundwater model (DTVGM-GWM), was used to assess the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on a watershed hydrological cycle. The DTVGM-GWM model can reflect the interaction processes of surface water and groundwater at basin scale. The model was applied to the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in eastern China. The possible influences of climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on surface water and groundwater in the HRB were analyzed under various scenarios. The results showed that the newly constructed model DTVGM-GWM can reasonably simulate the surface and river runoff, and describe the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of groundwater level, groundwater storage and phreatic recharge. The prediction results under different scenarios showed a decline in annual groundwater exploitation and also runoff in the HRB, while an increase of groundwater storage and groundwater level after the SNWDP’s operation. Additionally, as the project also addresses future scenarios, a slight increase is predicted in the actual evapotranspiration, soil water content and phreatic recharge. This study provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management options for the HRB.

Résumé

La modélisation des changements pour les eaux de surface et les eaux souterraines, dans les secteurs concernés par des projets de dérivation d’eau inter-bassins, est. assez difficile du fait que les modèles pour les eaux de surface et les eaux souterraines sont menés séparément la plupart du temps, et que l’absence de données suffisantes limite la mise en œuvre de modèles couplés eaux de surface/eaux souterraines basés sur des lois physiques, en particulier dans les pays en voie de développement. Dans cette étude, un modèle couplé distribué associant eaux de surface et eaux souterraines, dénommé modèle hydrogéologique distribué à gain variant dans le temps (MDGVT-MES), a été utilisé pour évaluer l’influence du changement climatique et la dérivation d’eau inter-bassins sur un cycle hydrologique du bassin versant. Le modèle MDGVT-MES peut représenter les processus d’interaction entre les eaux de surface et les eaux souterraines à l’échelle du bassin. Le modèle a été appliqué au bassin versant de la rivière Haihe (BRH) dans l’Est de la Chine. Les influences possibles du changement climatique et du projet de diversion des eaux du Sud vers le Nord (PDESN) sur les eaux de surface et souterraines dans le BRH ont été analysées pour différents scénarii. Les résultats ont montré que le modèle MDGVT-MES, nouvellement construit, peut raisonnablement simuler le ruissellement et écoulement de surface, et décrire les caractéristiques de la distribution spatio-temporelle des niveaux piézométriques, du stockage d’eaux souterraines et la recharge de l’aquifère. Les résultats des prévisions selon différents scénarii ont montré une diminution de l’exploitation annuelle des eaux souterraines et aussi du ruissellement dans le BRH, tandis qu’une augmentation du stockage des eaux souterraines et des niveaux piézométriques est. notée après la mise en œuvre du PDESN. De plus, comme le projet aborde également les scénarii futurs, une légère augmentation de l’évapotranspiration réelle, de la teneur en eau du sol et de la recharge de l’aquifère est. prévue. Cette étude fournit de précieuses informations pour développer des options de gestion durable des eaux souterraines pour le BRH.

Resumen

El modelado de los cambios en las aguas superficiales y subterráneas en las áreas de proyectos de trasvase de agua entre cuencas es bastante difícil porque los modelos de aguas superficiales y subterráneas se ejecutan por separado la mayoría del tiempo y la falta de datos suficientes limita la aplicación de modelos complejos con acoplamiento de aguas superficiales – aguas subterráneas basados en leyes físicas, especialmente para países en desarrollo. En este estudio, se utilizó un modelo distribuido de acoplamiento de aguas superficiales y subterráneas, denominado modelo de ganancia de variante de tiempo distribuido (DTVGM-GWM), para evaluar la influencia del cambio climático y el trasvase de agua entre cuencas en un ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca. El modelo DTVGM-GWM puede reflejar los procesos de interacción de aguas superficiales y subterráneas a escala de cuenca. El modelo se aplicó en la cuenca del río Haihe (HRB) en el este de China. Las posibles influencias del cambio climático y el proyecto de trasvase de agua de sur a norte (SNWDP) en aguas superficiales y subterráneas en la HRB se analizaron bajo varios escenarios. Los resultados mostraron que el modelo recientemente construido DTVGM-GWM puede simular razonablemente la escorrentía superficial y fluvial, y describir las características de distribución espacio-temporal del nivel de agua subterránea, el almacenamiento de agua subterránea y la recarga freática. Los resultados de la predicción en diferentes escenarios mostraron una disminución en la explotación anual de aguas subterráneas y también la escorrentía en la HRB, mientras que un aumento en el almacenamiento de aguas subterráneas y el nivel del agua subterránea después de la operación del SNWDP. Además, como el proyecto también aborda los escenarios futuros, se predice un ligero aumento en la evapotranspiración real, en el contenido de agua en el suelo y en la recarga freática. Este estudio proporciona información valiosa para desarrollar opciones sostenibles de gestión del agua subterránea para la HRB.

摘要

由于长期以来地表水模型和地下水模型在各自的领域独立运行,同时数据的匮乏限制了基于物理机制构建的复杂地表水-地下水模型的应用,特别是在发展中国家,这些因素给跨流域调水地区地表水和地下水变化的研究带来了巨大挑战。基于此,本文建立了一个分布式地表水-地下水耦合模型 (DTVGM-GWM) 用于评估气候变化和跨流域调水对流域水循环的影响,该模型可以在流域尺度上反映地表水和地下水的交互关系。本文进一步应用该模型采用多情景设置方法分析了气候变化和南水北调工程 (SNWDP) 对中国东部海河流域地表水和地下水的影响。研究结果表明,DTVGM-GWM 可以合理地模拟地表和河流径流, 描述地下水水位、地下水储量和潜水补给的时空分布特征。不同情景下的预测结果表明, 海河地下水的年开采量和径流量均呈下降趋势, 但在南水北调工程运行后地下水储量和地下水位开始增加。此外, 实际蒸散发、土壤含水量、潜水补给量受未来气候影响略有增加。本研究为海河流域地下水可持续管理提供了有价值的参考。

Resumo

A modelagem de mudança nas águas superficiais e subterrâneas em áreas de projeto transposição de água entre bacias é muito difícil porque os modelos de água superficial e subterrânea são executados na maior parte do tempo separadamente e a falta de dados suficientes limita a aplicação modelos complexo acoplados baseados nas leis físicas da água superficial/subterrânea, especialmente para países em desenvolvimento. Neste estudo, um modelo de água superficial e subterrânea acoplado distribuído, chamado de modelo de ganho variável no tempo – água subterrânea (distributed time variant gain model–groundwater model DTVGM-GWM), foi usado para avaliar a influência de mudança climática e transposição de água do ciclo hidrológico em bacia hidrográfica. O modelo DTVGM-GWM pode refletir o processo de interação entre a águas superficiais e a águas subterrâneas na escala da bacia. O modelo foi aplicado na Bacia do Rio Haihe (BRH) na China oriental. As possíveis influências da mudança climática e o projeto de transposição de água de Sul-a-Norte (PTASN) na água superficial e subterrânea na BRH foi analisada sob várias condições. Os resultados mostram que o modelo DTVGM-GWM recentemente construído pode simular racionalmente o escoamento superficial e fluvial, e descreve a distribuição espaço-temporal das características do nível, armazenamento e recarga das águas subterrâneas. Os resultados estimados sob diferentes condições mostraram um declínio anual na explotação da água subterrânea e também no escoamento na BRH, enquanto um acréscimo no armazenamento e nível freático das águas subterrâneas depois da operação do PTASN. Adicionalmente, como o projeto também analisou situações futuras, um pequeno acréscimo foi estimado na atual evapotranspiração, umidade do solo e recarga freática. Este estudo fornece informações valiosas para o desenvolvimento de opções sustentáveis de gerenciamento de águas subterrâneas para o BRH.

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Funding Information

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41571028), Hubei Province Science and Technology Support Plan (No. 2015BCA290) and the National Key Research and Development Program (during the 13th Five-year Plan), Ministry of Science and Technology, PRC (Grant No. 2016YFC0401301).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, 8 Donghu South Road, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Jun Xia, Qiang Wang, Xiang Zhang, Rui Wang & Dunxian She

  2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Jun Xia

  3. Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Jun Xia, Qiang Wang, Xiang Zhang, Rui Wang & Dunxian She

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  1. Jun Xia
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Correspondence to Xiang Zhang.

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Published in the special issue “Groundwater sustainability in fast-developing China”

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Xia, J., Wang, Q., Zhang, X. et al. Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin, eastern China: a coupled model approach. Hydrogeol J 26, 1455–1473 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-018-1773-7

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