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Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

Modélisation de la réponse des niveaux d’eau souterraine peu profonds à des scénarios climatiques combinés à des scénarios de dérivation d’eau dans la plaine de Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chine

Modelado de la respuesta de los niveles someros de agua subterránea a escenarios combinados de clima y desvío de agua en la llanura de Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China

中国京津冀平原区浅层地下水水位对气候变化和调水活动的响应模拟

Modelando a resposta de níveis rasos de águas subterrâneas para cenários combinados de clima e transposição de águas na Planície de Pequim-Tianjin-Hebei, China

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Abstract

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

Résumé

Un modèle tri dimensionnel d’écoulement d’eau souterraine a été développé pour quantifier la variation temporelle des niveaux d’eau souterraine peu profonds en réponse à des scénarios climatiques combinés à des scénarios de dérivation d’eau pour les 40 prochaines années (2011–2050) dans la plaine de Beijing-Tinajin-Heibei, en Chine. L’eau souterraine joue un rôle clé dans l’alimentation en eau, mais la plaine de Jing-Jin-Ji fait face à une crise de l’eau. Les niveaux d’eau souterraine ont décliné de manière continue au cours des cinq dernières décennies (1961–2010) à cause de pompages intensifs et du changement climatique, ce qui a conduit à une diminution de la recharge. La mise en œuvre du projet de dérivation du Sud-au-Nord (SNWDP) fournira une occasion de reconstituer les ressources en eau souterraine. La réponse des niveaux piézométriques aux scénarios climatiques combinés aux scénarios de dérivation d’eau a été quantifiée en utilisant un modèle d’écoulement des eaux souterraines. Les impacts du changement climatique sont basés sur les ensembles de données des modèles multiples de la phase 3 du projet d’inter-comparaison des modèles couplés (CMIP3) du programme de recherche climatique à l’échelle mondiale (WCRP), pour les scénarios de gaz à effet de serre élevés (A2), moyens (A1B) et faibles (B1); les données de précipitations de CMIP3 ont été appliquées au modèle. Les résultats montrent que le changement climatique va ralentir le taux de diminution des niveaux piézométriques peu profonds pour les trois scénarios de changement climatique pour les 40 prochaines années par rapport au scénario de base. Cependant, les niveaux piézométriques peu profonds vont augmenter de manière significative (maximum de 6.71 m) en considérant des scénarios qui combinent le changement climatique et des restrictions d’exploitation des eaux souterraines. Les restrictions de l’exploitation des eaux souterraines pour la gestion des ressources en eau sont essentielles pour contrôler le déclin des niveaux d’eau dans la zone de Jing-Jin-Ji.

Resumen

Se implementó un modelo tridimensional de flujo de agua subterránea para cuantificar la variación temporal de los niveles someros de agua subterránea en respuesta a escenarios combinados de clima y desvío de agua durante los próximos 40 años (2011–2050) en la llanura de Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji ), China. El agua subterránea juega un papel clave para el abastecimiento de agua, pero la llanura de Jing-Jin-Ji se enfrenta a una crisis de agua. Los niveles del agua subterránea se han profundizado continuamente durante las últimas cinco décadas (1961–2010) debido a un bombeo intenso y al cambio climático, que ha dado lugar a una disminución en la recarga. La implementación del Proyecto de Desviación de Agua Sur-Norte (SNWDP) proporcionará una oportunidad para restaurar los recursos de agua subterránea. La respuesta de los niveles del agua subterránea a los escenarios combinados de clima y desvío del agua se ha cuantificado utilizando un modelo de flujo de agua subterránea. Los impactos del cambio climático se basaron en el conjunto de datos de modelos múltiples de la fase 3 (CMIP3) del World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) para los futuros escenarios de gases de efecto invernadero alto (A2), medio (A1B) y bajo (B1); los datos de precipitación de CMIP3 se aplicaron en el modelo. Los resultados muestran que el cambio climático disminuirá el ritmo de profundización de los niveles someros del agua subterránea bajo los tres escenarios de cambio climático durante los próximos 40 años en comparación con el escenario base. Sin embargo, los niveles de agua subterránea someros aumentarán significativamente (máximo 6.71 m) al considerar los escenarios que combinan el cambio climático y las restricciones en la explotación de agua subterránea. Las restricciones en la explotación de agua subterránea para la gestión de los recursos hídricos son imprescindibles para controlar la profundización de los niveles en el área de Jing-Jin-Ji.

摘要

地下水资源是中国京津冀平原区重要的供水水源,地下水过度开采和气候变化引起的地下水补给量衰减,已经使得地下水水位在过去50年(1961–2010)呈现出持续下降态势,该地区面临着水危机,而南水北调工程的实施将为该区地下水涵养提供保障。为了分析京津冀平原区浅层地下水水位在气候变化和南水北调工程作用下的演化趋势,本文建立了京津冀平原区的地下水三维流动数值模型,模型中的降水演化数据依据了未来高(A1B)、中等(A2)和低(B1)排放三种情景下世界气候研究计划(WCRP)的耦合模式比较计划—阶段3 的多模式数据。模拟结果表明,相较于基准情景,未来40年(2011–2050),气候变化会缓减平原区浅层地下水位的下降速率;气候变化和调水限采的共同作用下,浅层地下水水位会明显回升(回升幅度可达6.71 m),可见,在实施调水工程的基础上,合理地限采地下水是控制京津冀地区地下水位下降及水资源科学管理的有效手段。

Resumo

Um modelo tridimensional de fluxo das águas subterrâneas foi implementado para quantificar a variação temporal de níveis rasos de água subterrânea em resposta a cenários combinados de clima e transposição de águas ao longo dos próximos 40 anos (2011–2050) na Planície de Pequim-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji), China. A água subterrânea desempenha um papel fundamental no abastecimento de água, entretanto a Planície Jing-Jin-Ji está enfrentado uma crise de água. Os níveis das águas subterrâneas diminuíram continuamente nas últimas cinco décadas (1961–2010) devido ao bombeamento extensivo e às mudanças climáticas, que resultaram na redução da recarga. A implementação do Projeto de Transposição de Águas Sul-para-Norte (PTASN) irá providenciar uma oportunidade de restaurar os recursos hídricos subterrâneos. A resposta dos níveis das água subterrâneas a cenários combinados de clima e transposição de água foram quantificados utilizando um modelo de fluxo da água subterrânea. Os impactos da mudança climática foram baseados no conjunto de dados multimodelos do Projeto de Intercomparação de Modelos Fase 3 (CMIP3) do Programa Mundial de Pesquisas Climáticas (WCRP) para cenários futuros de alta (A2), média (A1B), e baixa (B1) concentração de gases de efeito estufa; dados de precipitação do PIMF3 foram aplicados no modelo. Os resultados demonstram que a mudança climática ira retardar a taxa de diminuição dos níveis rasos de águas subterrâneas sob três cenários climáticos nos próximos 40 anos em comparação ao cenário base. Entretanto, os níveis rasos de águas subterrâneas irão subir significativamente (máximo de 6.71 m) quando se considera cenários que combinam mudança climática e restrições na explotação de água subterrânea. Restrições na explotação de águas subterrâneas, para a gestão dos recursos hídricos, são indispensáveis para controlar o declínio dos níveis na área de Jing-Jin-Ji.

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Acknowledgements

This study was jointly funded by the Key Program for International S&T Cooperation Projects of China (2016yee0109600), Governmental Public Research Funds of China (No. DD20160144) and the Natural Science Foundation of Science and Technology Department in Hebei Province (No. D2016403044). We acknowledge several modelling groups for providing their data for the analysis, including the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for collecting and archiving the model output and organizing the model data analysis activity. The data were collected, analysed, and provided by the National Climate Center.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Xue Li & Si-Yuan Ye

  2. Key Laboratory of Coastal Wetland Biogeosciences, China Geological Survey, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Xue Li & Si-Yuan Ye

  3. Laboratory for Marine Mineral Resources, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Xue Li & Si-Yuan Ye

  4. School of Water Resource and Environment, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China

    Ai-Hua Wei

  5. Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Peng-Peng Zhou & Li-Heng Wang

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Li, X., Ye, SY., Wei, AH. et al. Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China. Hydrogeol J 25, 1733–1744 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1574-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1574-4

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