Abstract
Groundwater time-series modeling has emerged as an efficient approach for simulating the impacts of multiple drivers of groundwater-head variation such as rainfall, evaporation and groundwater pumping. However, a bottom-up approach has generally been adopted whereby the input drivers have been assumed without statistical evidence for their inclusion. In this study, a parsimonious time-series model was adopted which accounts for various drivers and is able to simulate the overall groundwater-head variation. It can also separate the effects of pumping and climate drivers on multi-annual time series of groundwater-level variation. The time-series model consists of a soil-moisture layer to account for non-linearity between rainfall and recharge, as well as different pumping response functions to account for pumping from a single well, lake-induced recharge and the effects of multiple pumping bores. The method was applied to a groundwater-pumping region in south-eastern Australia. The results showed that the model is able to separate the effects of pumping from the effects of climate on groundwater-head variation. However, improved estimation of those influences requires a flexible model structure that can account for spatially varying physical processes within the study region such as the relative influence of single or multiple pumping bores and induced recharge from surface-water bodies.
Résumé
La modélisation des séries temporelles de piézométrie a émergé en tant qu’approche efficace pour simuler les impacts de multiples causes de variation de la piézométrie des eaux souterraines, telles que la pluie, l’évaporation et les pompages d’eau souterraine. Cependant, une approche ascendante a généralement été adoptée en vertu de laquelle les causes d’entrée ont été supposées sans preuve statistique pour leur implication. Dans cette étude, un modèle parcimonieux de séries chronologiques a été adopté prenant en considération différentes causes et étant capable de simuler la variation piézométrique dans sa globalité. Il peut aussi séparer les effets des pompages des causes climatiques pour des séries chronologiques pluriannuelles de variation du niveau piézométrique. Le modèle de séries chronologiques consiste en une couche sol-humidité afin d’intégrer la non linéarité entre la pluie et la recharge, ainsi que différentes fonctions de réponse aux pompages pour prendre en compte le pompage dans un puits unique, la recharge induite par un lac et les effets de multiples forages d’exploitation. La méthode a été appliquée à une région d’exploitation des eaux souterraines du Sud-Est de l’Australie. Les résultats montrent que le modèle est capable de séparer les effets des pompages des effets du climat sur les variations du niveau piézométrique. Cependant, l’amélioration de l’estimation de ces influences requiert une structure de modèle flexible qui peut prendre en considération des processus physiques variant spatialement dans la région d’étude, telles que l’influence relative d’un unique ou de multiples forages d’exploitation et la recharge induite par des cours d’eau ou plans d’eau de surface.
Resumen
El modelado de series de tiempo de agua subterránea se ha convertido en un enfoque eficiente para la simulación de los impactos de las múltiples causas de la variación de la carga hidráulica del agua subterránea, tales como precipitación, evaporación y bombeo de agua subterránea. Sin embargo, por lo general se ha adoptado un enfoque “de abajo a arriba” por el cual las causas de ingreso se han asumido sin evidencias estadísticas para su inclusión. En este estudio, se adoptó un modelado de series de tiempo parsimoniosas que representa a varias causas y es capaz de simular la variación global de la carga hidráulica del agua subterránea. También puede separar los efectos del bombeo y las causas climáticas en series de tiempo multianuales de variación de los niveles de agua subterránea. El modelo de series de tiempo consiste de una capa de humedad del suelo para tener cuenta la no linealidad entre la precipitación y la recarga, así como diferentes funciones de respuesta al bombeo para dar cuenta del bombeo desde un pozo único, recarga inducida por un lago y los efectos de múltiples pozos de bombeo. Se aplicó el método a una región de bombeo de agua subterránea en el sudeste de Australia. Los resultados mostraron que el modelo es capaz de separar los efectos del bombeo de los efectos de las variaciones climáticas sobre la variación de la carga hidráulica del agua subterránea. Sin embargo, una mejor estimación de esas influencias requiere una estructura de modelo flexible que puede dar cuenta de procesos físicos espacialmente variables dentro de la región de estudio, tal como la influencia relativa de simples o múltiples pozos de bombeo y recarga inducida desde cuerpos de agua superficial.
摘要
作为模拟地下水头变化的多重驱动因素影响一个有效的方法,地下水时序模拟应运而生,这些因素包括降雨、蒸发及地下水的抽取。然而,一种自下而上的方法普遍被采用,在这种方法中,假定输入驱动因素无其入选统计论据。在本研究中,采用了一种特别简单的时序模型,这个模型解释了各种驱动因素,能够模拟全部的地下水头变化。模型还可以区分抽水因素和气候因素对地下水位变化多个年度时序的影响。时序模型由一个解释降雨和补给之间的非线性误差的土壤水分层以及解释单井中抽水、湖泊诱发的补给及多个抽水井影响的不同抽水响应函数组成。此方法应用于澳大利亚东南部的地下水抽水区。结果显示,模型能够区分抽水和气候对地下水头变化的影响。然而,提高这些影响的估测水平需要一个切实可行的模型结构,这个模型结构要能够解释研究区内空间上变化的物理过程,诸如单个或多个钻井的相对影响及地表水体诱发的补给。
Resumo
A modelação de séries temporais de níveis piezométricos surgiu como uma abordagem eficiente para simular os impactes de múltiplos controladores da variação do potencial hidráulico, tais como a precipitação, a evaporação e o bombeamento da água subterrânea. No entanto, tem sido geralmente adotada uma abordagem ascendente, pela qual os controladores de entrada são assumidos sem evidência estatística da sua inclusão. Neste estudo, foi adotado um modelo parcimonioso de séries temporais que responde por vários controladores e é capaz de simular a variação global do potencial hidráulico. Também pode separar os efeitos de controladores de bombeamento e de clima em séries temporais multianuais de variação do nível piezométrico. O modelo de séries temporais é composto por uma camada de humidade do solo para explicar a não linearidade entre a precipitação e a recarga, assim como diferentes funções de resposta ao bombeamento num único furo, recarga induzida a partir de um lago e o efeito de vários furos de bombeamento. O método foi aplicado numa região de extração de água subterrânea no sudeste da Austrália. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo é capaz de separar os efeitos do bombeamento dos efeitos do clima na variação do potencial hidráulico. No entanto, a melhoria da estimativa dessas influências requer uma estrutura de modelo flexível que possa responder pela variação espacial dos processos físicos dentro da região de estudo, tais como a influência relativa de furos de bombeamento singulares ou múltiplos e a recarga induzida a partir de corpos de água superficiais.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful for the financial support received from the Australian Research Council (grant number: LP0991280), the Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria, Australia; the Department of Primary Industries, Victoria, Australia; and the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. The authors also thank Mr. Andrew Harrison and Mr. Terry Flynn for providing the pumping data and information on the study area and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments
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Shapoori, V., Peterson, T.J., Western, A.W. et al. Top-down groundwater hydrograph time-series modeling for climate-pumping decomposition. Hydrogeol J 23, 819–836 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-014-1223-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-014-1223-0