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Risks of Neglecting Phenology When Assessing Climatic Controls of Primary Production

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Abstract

We evaluated the effect that integrating annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) along different 12-month periods has on temporal models of productivity (ANPP as a linear function of annual precipitation). We studied Argentinean Patagonia, which encompasses a variety of climates and biomes. Using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to estimate green biomass, we assessed the date of maximum annual NDVI for 2000–2016. One quarter of Patagonia (West/South region) exhibited a well-defined seasonality, with maximum NDVI during spring–summer, whereas the rest (Central/East region) showed a much less well-defined maximum NDVI, generally during fall. Then we calculated temporal models for each pixel, considering both annual and seasonal precipitation (PPT), in two ways: (i) centered models, integrating NDVI for a period centered at the actual growing season, that is, July–June for West/South region and January–December for Central/East region, and (ii) displaced models, switching the NDVI integration period. Our results indicate that, with the centered models, 84% of the Central/East region exhibited significant temporal models, but only 52% of the West/South region did. For the displaced models, 60% (40%) of pixels of Central/East (West/South) region changed their best predictor of ANPP. In general, the best predictor changed from current-year PPT to current-plus-previous-year PPT or from current-year fall to previous-year fall. Our results suggest that more attention must be paid in choosing the integration period for annual ANPP. This is more than a formal matter since the putative best predictor of ANPP can dramatically change depending on the assumed phenology.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the editor and reviewers for suggestions and SMN and INTA for access to their climatic databases. LMB fellowship was supported by CONICET (National Research Council of Argentina) and Chubut Province. This Research was funded by PIP 11220120100592CO, UNPSJB 10/C324 and UBACyT 20020170100749BA. This paper was written within the framework of the PUE-IPEEC-2016 22920160100044. AJB and RJF are CONICET researchers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Patagónico para el Estudio de los Ecosistemas Continentales (IPEEC) - CONICET, Bv. Almirante Brown 2915, U9120ACD, Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina

    Lucas M. Bandieri & Alejandro J. Bisigato

  2. Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA), Av. San Martín 4453, C1417DSE, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Roberto J. Fernández

  3. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura (IFEVA) - UBA - CONICET, Av. San Martín 4453, C1417DSE, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Roberto J. Fernández

  4. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco (UNPSJB), Bv. Almirante Brown 3700, U9120ACX, Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina

    Alejandro J. Bisigato

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  1. Lucas M. Bandieri
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Correspondence to Alejandro J. Bisigato.

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LMB analyzed datasets and wrote paper. RJF and AJB designed research and wrote paper.

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Bandieri, L.M., Fernández, R.J. & Bisigato, A.J. Risks of Neglecting Phenology When Assessing Climatic Controls of Primary Production. Ecosystems 23, 164–174 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-019-00393-7

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