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Climate Variation Overwhelms Efforts to Reduce Nitrogen Delivery to Coastal Waters

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Abstract

We calculated watershed nitrogen (N) retention (inputs–outputs)/inputs) each year from 1999–2013 for nine sub-watersheds along an urban–rural gradient near Baltimore MD to determine how land use and climate influence watershed N flux. Retention is critical to efforts to control coastal eutrophication through regulatory efforts that mandate reductions in the total maximum daily load (TMDL) of N that specific water bodies can receive. Retention decreased with urbanization as well as with increases in precipitation with retention decreasing from an average of 91% in the forested sub-watershed to 16% in the most urban sub-watershed. Export was 23% higher, and retention was 7% lower in winter (November–April) than during the growing season. Total N delivery to Baltimore Harbor varied almost threefold between wet and dry years, which is significant relative to the total annual export allowed for all non-point sources to the harbor under the TMDL. These results suggest that expectations for TMDLs should consider watershed land use and climate variability, and their potential for change if they are to result in improvements in receiving water quality.

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Acknowledgments

The data for this paper are available at the Baltimore Ecosystem Web site (http://www.beslter.org/). This work was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation: NSF-EAR award #0847838 to N.D.B and NSF-DEB award #1027188 (Baltimore LTER). Special thanks to Dan Dillon, who provided valuable assistance and advice in the field, Lisa Martel, Robin Schmidt, Kate Shepard, and Amanda Irish who processed and analyzed samples in the laboratory and two anonymous reviewers who provided two rounds of valuable and constructive comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, 12545, USA

    Neil D. Bettez & Peter M. Groffman

  2. Department of Geography and Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 27599, USA

    Jonathan M. Duncan & Lawrence E. Band

  3. Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources and Spatial Analysis Lab, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, 05405, USA

    Jarlath O’Neil-Dunne

  4. Department of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA

    Sujay S. Kaushal

  5. USDA Forest Service, Baltimore Field Station, Baltimore, Maryland, 21228, USA

    Kenneth T. Belt

  6. Center for Watershed Protection, Ellicott City, Maryland, 21043, USA

    Neely Law

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  1. Neil D. Bettez
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  2. Jonathan M. Duncan
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  8. Neely Law
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Correspondence to Neil D. Bettez.

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Author Contributions

Neil D. Bettez analyzed the data, interpreted the results, and wrote the manuscript. Jonathan M. Duncan contributed methods and analyzed data. Dr. Peter M. Groffman was involved in the original conception and design of the study, contributed substantially to the interpretation of results and writing of the manuscript. Lawrence E. Band conceived of the study and contributed methods. Jarlath O’Neil-Dunne analyzed data and contributed new methods. Sujay S. Kaushal conceived of the study and performed research. Kenneth T. Belt performed research. Neely Law contributed to the interpretation of results.

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Bettez, N.D., Duncan, J.M., Groffman, P.M. et al. Climate Variation Overwhelms Efforts to Reduce Nitrogen Delivery to Coastal Waters. Ecosystems 18, 1319–1331 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-015-9902-9

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