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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Vernal Pool Ecosystems and Endemic Branchiopods

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Abstract

This study evaluated the hydrologic sensitivity of vernal pool ecosystems in the Central Valley of California to climatic changes projected for 2100. A vernal pool water-balance model was used to evaluate rain-fed vernal pools at four locations under future conditions projected by two contrasting global climate models. The potential for change in the duration of continuous inundation, frequency of reproductively suitable inundation events, and the seasonal distribution of inundation was quantified. The potential impact of hydrologic changes varied by species and by location. Three scales of response were identified: (a) At the regional scale, pools in the middle of the Central Valley near Merced were the most responsive to climatic changes. (b) At the local scale, smaller, shallower pools had the greatest potential to change the distribution of reproductively suitable habitat available to branchiopods. (c) At the individual pool scale, changes in precipitation will dominate changes in temperature, resulting in relatively linear responses in the duration of inundation. The ecological impact of these changes will be determined by a balance between the increasing suitability of vernal pools for branchiopod predators and the hydrologic improvement of currently marginal habitats.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Science to Achieve Results program, the Nature Conservancy’s David H. Smith fellows program, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis. V. Bullard provided assistance both in the field and laboratory. C. Ford (City of Oroville) and G. Platenkamp (Jones & Stokes Associates) assisted with this project by providing access to the mitigation site at the Oroville Municipal Airport, along with reports and monitoring data. This article benefited from review by S. Andelman, F. Davis, O. Chadwick, S. Cooper, M. Goodchild, B. Bierwagen, J. Shurin, S. Gergel, L. de Meester, and an anonymous reviewer.

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  1. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California, 93103, USA

    Christopher R. Pyke

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Correspondence to Christopher R. Pyke.

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Pyke, C.R. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Vernal Pool Ecosystems and Endemic Branchiopods. Ecosystems 8, 95–105 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-004-0086-y

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