Abstract
Though the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) was originally developed to model the ambient concentrations of pollutants, most subsequent applications have focused on pollution emissions. Yet, it seems more likely that economic growth could eventually reduce the concentrations of local pollutants than emissions. We examine the role of income, convergence, and time-related factors in explaining recent changes in PM 2.5 and PM 10 particulate pollution in 50 Chinese cities using new measures of ambient air quality that the Chinese government has published only since the beginning of 2013. We use a recently developed model that relates the rate of change of pollution to the growth of the economy and other factors as well as the traditional environmental Kuznets curve model. Pollution fell sharply from 2013 to 2014. We show that economic growth, convergence, and time effects all served to lower the level of pollution. The results also demonstrate the relationship between the two modeling approaches.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anjum Z, Burke PJ, Gerlagh R, Stern DI (2014) Modeling the emissions-income relationship using long-run growth rates. CCEP working papers 1403
Brajer V, Mead RW, Xiao F (2011) Searching for an environmental Kuznets curve in China’s air pollution. China Econ Rev 22:383–397
Carson RT (2010) The environmental Kuznets curve: seeking empirical regularity and theoretical structure. Rev Environ Econ Policy 4(1):3–23
Cole MA, Elliott RJR, Zhang J (2011) Growth, foreign direct investment, and the environment: evidence from Chinese cities. J Reg Sci 51(1):121–138
Ezcurra R (2007) Is there cross-country convergence in carbon dioxide emissions? Energy Policy 35:1363–1372
Gibson J, Li C (2015) The erroneous use of China’s population and per capita data: a structured review and critical test. University of Waikato working paper in economics 14/15
Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1991) Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. NBER working papers 3914
Han L, Zhou W, Li W, Li L (2014) Impact of urbanization level on urban air quality: a case of fine particles (PM 2.5) in Chinese cities. Environ Pollut 194:163–170
Hao Y, Liu Y-M (2016) The influential factors of urban PM 2.5 concentrations in China: a spatial econometric analysis. J Clean Prod 112:1443–1453
Harbaugh W, Levinson A, Wilson D (2002) Re-examining the empirical evidence for an environmental Kuznets curve. Rev Econ Stat 84(3):541–551
He J (2009) China’s industrial SO2 emissions and its economic determinants: EKC’s reduced vs. structural model and the role of international trade. Environ Dev Econ 14(2):227–262
Keene A, Deller SC (2015) Evidence of the environmental Kuznets’ curve among US counties and the impact of social capital. Int Reg Sci Rev 38(4):358–387
Khanna N (2000) Measuring environmental quality: an index of pollution. Ecol Econ 35:191–202
Lee H, Oh D (2015) Economic growth and the environment in China: empirical evidence using prefecture level data. China Econ Rev 36:73–85
Ordás Criado C, Valente S, Stengos T (2011) Growth and pollution convergence: theory and evidence. J Environ Econ Manag 62:199–214
Pettersson F, Maddison D, Acar S, Söderholm P (2013) Convergence of carbon dioxide emissions: a review of the literature. Int Rev Environ Resour Econ 7:141–178
Poon JPH, Casas I, He C (2006) The impact of energy, transport, and trade on air pollution in China. Eurasian Geogr Econ 47(5):568–584
Sanchez LF, Stern DI (2016) Drivers of industrial and non-industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Ecol Econ 124:17–24
Selden TM, Song D (1994) Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution? J Environ Econ Environ Manag 27:147–162
Shafik N (1994) Economic development and environmental quality: an econometric analysis. Oxf Econ Pap 46:757–773
Song T, Zheng T, Tong L (2008) An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: a panel cointegration approach. China Econ Rev 19:381–392
Stern DI (2004) The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve. World Dev 32(8):1419–1439
Stern DI (2010) Between estimates of the emissions-income elasticity. Ecol Econ 69:2173–2182
Stern DI, Common MS, Barbier EB (1996) Economic growth and environmental degradation: the environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development. World Dev 24:1151–1160
Stoerk T (2015) Statistical corruption in Beijing’s air quality data has likely ended in 2012, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper 194
van Donkelaar A, Martin RV, Brauer M, Kahn R, Levy R, Verduzco C, Villeneuve PJ (2010) Global estimates of ambient fine particulate matter concentrations from satellite-based aerosol optical depth: development and application. Environ Health Perspect 118:847–855
Victor DG, Zaelke D, Ramanathan V (2015) Soot and short-lived pollutants provide political opportunity. Nat Clim Change 5:796–798
Vollebergh HRJ, Melenberg B, Dijkgraaf E (2009) Identifying reduced-form relations with panel data: the case of pollution and income. J Environ Econ Manag 58:27–42
Wagner M (2008) The carbon Kuznets curve: a cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics. Resour Energy Econ 30:388–408
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (1992) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature 357:293–300
Wong E (2015) Beijing issues red alert over air pollution for the first time. New York Times, 7 Dec 2015
Wooldridge J (2015) Introductory econometrics: a modern approach, 6th edn. Cengage Learning
Zhang Y (2011) Three-way split to wipe Anhui city off the map. China Daily, 22 Aug 2011
Zhao Y, Zhang J, Nielsen CP (2013) The effects of recent control policies on trends in emissions of anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants and CO2 in China. Atmos Chem Phys 13:487–508
Acknowledgments
This paper was written while Donglan Zha was visiting the Crawford School. We thank the Chinese Scholarship Council and Natural Science Foundation of China grant number 71203092 for funding her visit.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
About this article
Cite this article
Stern, D.I., Zha, D. Economic growth and particulate pollution concentrations in China. Environ Econ Policy Stud 18, 327–338 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-016-0148-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-016-0148-3