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A system dynamics model for shipbuilding demand forecasting

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Abstract

Shipbuilding is an industry in which the change in demand has been extremely drastic. Therefore, it is important to develop a method of demand forecasting for new ships to realize sustainable development of the shipbuilding industry. In this paper, a system dynamics model for demand forecasting of ships is discussed. The target ship type is the bulk carrier, and the target cargo commodities are iron ore, coal, and grain. To express shipbuilding market characteristics, causal relations between economic growth, sea cargo movement, ship bottoms, ship orders, construction, and ship scrapping are examined, and the cargo transportation prediction model, order prediction model, construction model, and scrap model are defined. Thus, demand-forecasting simulations using the proposed model are conducted, and the effectiveness of the proposed model is shown.

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Acknowledgements

Substantial advice and comments provided by Prof. Koyama (Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo) and Prof. Kose (Professor Emeritus, Hiroshima University) have been a great help in this study. We would like to express sincere gratitude to them. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 16H04602.

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Author notes

  1. Yujiro Wada

    Present address: Navigation & Logistics Engineering Department, National Maritime Research Institute, Mitaka, Tokyo, Japan

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

    Yujiro Wada, Kunihiro Hamada & Noritaka Hirata

  2. TSUNEISHI SHIPBUILDING Co.,Ltd., Fukuyama, Japan

    Kazutaka Seki & Shinji Yamada

Authors
  1. Yujiro Wada
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  2. Kunihiro Hamada
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  3. Noritaka Hirata
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  4. Kazutaka Seki
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  5. Shinji Yamada
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Correspondence to Yujiro Wada.

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Wada, Y., Hamada, K., Hirata, N. et al. A system dynamics model for shipbuilding demand forecasting. J Mar Sci Technol 23, 236–252 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-017-0466-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-017-0466-6

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