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Funktionalanalyse versus Trendanalyse zur Abschätzung anthropogener Einflüsse auf Grundwasserganglinien

Functional versus trend analysis to assess anthropogenic impacts on groundwater heads

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Zusammenfassung

Als erster Schritt zur Abschätzung eines etwaigen negativen anthropogenen Einflusses auf den quantitativen Zustand des Grundwassers wird in der Europäischen Wasserrahmenrichtlinie empfohlen, eine Trendanalyse durchzuführen. In der Praxis stößt dieser Ansatz auf erhebliche Probleme und wurde deshalb in dieser Studie überprüft. Der weit verbreitete Mann-Kendall-Test berücksichtigt nicht die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Trends und der Autokorrelation der Daten, wie sie gerade für Grundwasserganglinien typisch sind. Dadurch kam es zu einer massiven Überschätzung der Signifikanz der beobachteten Trends. Signifikanz, Stärke und Vorzeichen der Trends hingen sehr stark von dem jeweils gewählten Zeitraum ab.

Dagegen lieferte die als Alternative hier vorgestellte Funktionalanalyse auf Basis einer Hauptkomponentenanalyse von Ganglinien für verschiedene Zeiträume fast identische Werte. Abweichungen beobachteter Ganglinien von dem regionstypischen Verhalten konnten quantitativ erfasst werden, um Art, Zeitraum und Stärke des anthropogenen Einflusses auf die beobachteten Ganglinien zu erfassen. Der rechnerische und datentechnische Aufwand dieses Verfahrens ist vergleichbar mit dem der Trendanalyse.

Abstract

The European Water Framework Directive recommends investigating trends in groundwater head time series by means of trend analysis in order to assess possible harmful anthropogenic impacts. This approach encounters substantial problems. Usually the Mann-Kendall test is applied which does not consider interactions between trends and auto-correlation in the data. These are very common in groundwater head time series. As a consequence, trend significance has been substantially overestimated. In addition, significance, magnitude and trend sign depend strongly on the selected time span. A functional analysis based on a principal component analysis of groundwater head time series was introduced as an alternative. It yielded very robust results, independent from the selected periods. To determine anthropogenic impacts on groundwater heads, deviations of observed data from the expected behaviour could be investigated. Data requirements and the computational effort of this approach are about the same compared to trend analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut für Landschaftswasserhaushalt, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung, Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Deutschland

    Gunnar Lischeid,  Jörg Steidl &  Christoph Merz

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  1. Gunnar Lischeid
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  2. Jörg Steidl
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  3. Christoph Merz
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Correspondence to Gunnar Lischeid.

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Lischeid, G., Steidl, J. & Merz, C. Funktionalanalyse versus Trendanalyse zur Abschätzung anthropogener Einflüsse auf Grundwasserganglinien. Grundwasser 17, 79–89 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00767-012-0188-y

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