Uncertainties in Solubility Calculations

Summary.

 When considering the possible migration of hazardous elements in groundwater, one has to take into account several phenomena, e.g. solubility, ion exchange, adsorption, matrix diffusion, and transport paths. Here, we focus upon the solubility which in turn depends on several more or less uncertain chemical properties. Uncertainties in the data during laboratory experiments aiming at measurements of thermodynamic constants may cause uncertainties in the amount of some species of several tenths of the relative mass fraction.

The thermodynamic data may then be used for solubility calculations under different conditions and water compositions. Clearly, there are several uncertainties associated with solubility calculations in the rock-water system. First, there is the effect of uncertainties in thermodynamic data such as stability and solubility constants, and also enthalpies of reaction if the water is not at room temperature. Furthermore, there are the rock-water interactions which will change the water composition as different minerals come in contact with the water flowing through a system of fractures. Studies in mineralogy to an accuracy good enough for modeling of water evolution are difficult to perform, and therefore the mineral composition of the rock and thus the water composition should be treated as parameters subjected to uncertainties. In addition, there are also conceptual uncertainties with respect to input data. The calculation of a solubility should be an easy task for every chemist, but in fact results differing by orders of magnitude are found even when the modelers have used the same computer program and the same data.

In this paper, uncertainties associated with solubility calculations are discussed. The results are exemplified on the calculated solubilities of some actinides in groundwater from crystalline rock.