Abstract
A statistical downscaling of wind and wave regimes is presented. The study is around the Cuban archipelago for the mid-term (2031–2060) and the long-term (2061–2090) with respect to the historical period 1976–2005. A multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios is used. Projections of the wind and wave regimes are projected through the BIAS correction (delta and empirical quantile mapping), and multiple regression with a determination coefficient of 88.3%, a residual standard deviation of 0.11, and a square mean error of 0.29. According to the statistical downscaling, the mean annual wind speed and the wave height showed significant changes in the western part of the Cuban archipelago. The extreme indicators of climate change referred to significant wave height show similarity in the representation of the future Cuban marine climate, which would have the most accentuated changes on the north coast of the central and eastern regions.
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Data used in this research are download by websites http://cds.climate.copernicus.en and https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like appreciate the Institute of Meteorology, Cuba and Cubans Research Programs “Meteorology and Sustainable Development” and “Adaptation and Mitigation of the Climate Change” for approved and financed the projects “Projection wave climate and coastal flooding in Cuban archipelago” (2018–2021) and “Detection of changes in the Cuban marine climate from extreme indices of climate change” (2024–2026) respectively.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by A.H, I.M and A.V. The manuscript was written by A.H and A. V, while I.M commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Hidalgo-Mayo, A., Mitrani-Arenal, I. & Vichot-Llano, A. Projected wind and waves around the Cuban archipelago using a multimodel ensemble. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 7663–7677 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05093-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05093-4