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Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan

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Abstract

A comprehensive analysis of regional climate changes is essential in arid and semi-arid regions to optimize water resources management. This research aims to evaluate the changes in temperature and precipitation across the Mujib Basin in Jordan, using the most recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. Firstly, the performance of six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation from 1985 to 2014 was evaluated using observed climate data. The most suitable GCM was then bias-corrected using the linear scaling approach. The findings demonstrate that the EC-Earth3–Veg model could reasonably simulate the historical climate pattern of the Mujib Basin, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.90, 0.83, and 0.65 for monthly Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation, respectively. Under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, Tmax is projected to increase by 1.4 to 3.9 °C and 1.6 to 6.8 °C, respectively, whereas Tmin increases from 1.4 to 3.4 °C and 1.6 to 6.4 °C. Furthermore, precipitation is projected to decrease by 4.61–23.2% at the end of the 21st century. These findings could help policymakers in formulating better adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change in Jordan This is a crucial step toward becoming a climate-resilient nation.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks the Ministry of Water and Irrigation for supplying the data.

Funding

This research was supported by the Universiti Sains Malaysia, Research University Team (RUTeam) Grant Scheme (Grant Number: 1001/PHUMANITI/ 8580014).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. GeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang, 11800 USM, Malaysia

    Suheir Alsalal, Mou Leong Tan & Narimah Samat

  2. Department of Land, Water and Environment, School of Agriculture, The University of Jordan, Amman, 11942, Jordan

    Jawad T. Al-Bakri

  3. College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, 321004, China

    Fei Zhang

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  1. Suheir Alsalal
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Contributions

Conceptualization, M.L.T.; data curation, S.A.; formal analysis, S.A., M.L.T.; funding acquisition, M.L.T.; methodology, S.A.; supervision, M.L.T., N.S., J.T.A.; validation, S.A.; writing—original draft, S.A.; writing—review and editing, M.L.T., N.S., J.T.A., F.Z. All authors have read and agreed to the version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Mou Leong Tan.

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Alsalal, S., Tan, M.L., Samat, N. et al. Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 7703–7720 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05087-2

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