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Climate change trend analysis and future projection in Guguf watershed, Northern Ethiopia

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Abstract

According to Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate change is the weather characteristics such as precipitation, air temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine, cloud cover, and atmospheric pressure at a specific location determined over a long period of at least 30 years. The main objective of this study was to analyse the climate trend and future projection in Guguf watershed of Southern Tigray, Ethiopia. 32 years (1987–2018) Meteorological data were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute. Download canESM2 (Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model). The Mann-Kendal trend test was used to test for the presence of trends using XLSTAT. The SDSM 4.2.9 decision support tool was used to downscale large scale predictors and project future climate change. The period from 1987 to 2018 was considered as a base period, whereas the period from 2019 to 2100 was considered as future periods. Historically, from 1987 to 2018, there was an overall increase in the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by 0.016 °C and 0.048 °C, respectively, with a little decrease in the average annual rainfall (up to 0.685 mm). The highest increment of maximum temperature recorded in October month up to + 2.7 °C in RCP8.5 scenarios. The precipitation increases up to a maximum of 49% (2073–2100) for the RCP4.5 scenario and 66% (2073–2100) for the RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathway 4.5) scenario in the Belg (February to May). Precipitation decreases in the Kiremt (June to September) season by 8% (2019–2045) and 23% (2073–2100) for RCP4.5 scenarios. Future work needs to consider studying the effects of different climate change adaptation strategies.

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Data availability

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the author, without any reservation.

Abbreviations

EIAR:

Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research

FAO:

Food and Agriculture Organization

GCM:

Global Climate Model

SDSM:

Statistical downscaling model

RCP4.5:

Representative concentration pathway 4.5

RCP8.5:

Representative concentration pathway 4.5

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and the Mehoni Agricultural Research Center for financial support for this research. We also acknowledge the watershed team and senior researchers for their valuable comments during the review forum.

Funding

This work was supported by Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Fogera National Rice Research and Training Center, P.O. Box 1937, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Mekin Mohammed

  2. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Debre Markos Agricultural Research Center, Debre Markos, Ethiopia

    Seyoum Bezabih

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Mekin Mohammed has designed and carried out the study. And Mekin Mohammed has analyzed the data, and wrote the manuscript. Seyoum Bezabih contributed to the data collection and the interpretation of the results.

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Correspondence to Mekin Mohammed.

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Mohammed, M., Bezabih, S. Climate change trend analysis and future projection in Guguf watershed, Northern Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 7311–7324 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05068-5

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