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Evaluation of temperature modifying effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality in high latitude monsoon area

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Abstract

Particulate matter (PM) has been demonstrated to be a significant risk for the onset of respiratory diseases worldwide. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality at both single and multiple lag days based on the daily data of meteorological factors and air pollution levels in Shenyang, northeast China, from 2014 to 2016. We stratified the daily mean temperature into low (≤ P25), lower (P25–P50), higher (P50–P75), and high (≥ P75) to estimate the modifying effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality. The results indicated that for every inter-quartile range (IQR) increased concentration in PM2.5, respiratory death for the total, males and females increased by 0.35% (95% CI: 0.00%, 0.71%), 0.46% (95% CI: 0.00%, 0.93%), and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.05%, 1.11%) at lag 7, lag 7, and lag 1, respectively. Under the multi-day lags, the largest cumulative relative risks (RRs) were 1.016 (95% CI: 0.990, 1.042) and 1.038 (95% CI: 1.000, 1.077) at lag 0–2 days for the total and females, respectively. The largest death effect of PM2.5 was found at low temperatures. Females were at the highest risk in higher and higher temperatures, with RRs of 1.021 (95% CI: 0.999, 1.042) and 1.021 (95% CI: 0.993, 1.050) at lag 0 and lag 2, respectively. Males have the highest risk in lower temperatures at lag 1, with an RR of 1.006 (95% CI: 1.000, 1.012). In the multi-pollutant models, the effects of PM2.5 were mostly increased when NO2, SO2, or O3 were added to the models. The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for public health-friendly urban planning and long-term preventive measures in northeast China.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42375177, 41975141), Natural Science Foundation of Gansu (Grant No. 23JRRA1079) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (number: lzujbky-2022-it21).

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  1. Yuhan Zhao and Yuxia Ma contributed equally to this work as co-first authors.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Yuhan Zhao, Yuxia Ma, Zongrui Liu, Pengpeng Qin, Wanci Wang & Yifan Zhang

  2. Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang, 111100, China

    Haoran Jiao

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  1. Yuhan Zhao
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Contributions

Ma.Y. designed and carried out the research; Zhao. Y. set up models and result analysis; Liu. Z.and Qin. P. analyzed data; Wang. W., Jiao.H. and Zhang.Y. collected and assembled data; Zhao.Y. and Ma.Y. wrote and revised the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Yuxia Ma.

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Zhao, Y., Ma, Y., Liu, Z. et al. Evaluation of temperature modifying effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality in high latitude monsoon area. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05002-9

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