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Patterns and drivers of heavy and extreme hourly rainfall events over Metro Manila, Philippines

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Abstract

This study investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy hourly rainfall (HHR; 95th–99th percentile) and extreme hourly rainfall (EHR; >99th percentile) events over Metro Manila, Philippines, and quantifies the percentage contributions of synoptic scale (Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Low Pressure Systems (LPSs; weaker disturbances than TCs)) and local scale systems (convective and stratiform rainfall events) to the total HHR and EHR, during the southwest monsoon season from 2012 to 2019. The results show higher mean rainfall intensities for both HHR and EHR events in stations located further inland and close to mountainous areas. An evident afternoon peak is observed for both HHR and EHR events possibly caused by the diurnal heating over land. A secondary peak is also observed in the early morning hours for HHR events, which is likely caused by the convergence between the local wind circulations and the prevailing monsoon southwesterlies. Both HHR and EHR events are dominated by short–duration events (1–2 h) (HHR: 69–82%, EHR: 77–94%) across all stations, with higher percentages in stations located further inland near the mountainous regions. On the other hand, the contributions from medium–duration (3–5 h) (HHR: 15–26%, EHR: 4–23%) and long–duration events (≥ 6 h) (HHR: 3–9%, EHR: 0–6%) are smaller, with higher percentages located in northern stations. The majority of HHR events (52–60%) are found to be caused by stratiform rainfall, while the EHR events are mostly caused by convective rainfall events (38–72%). The contribution from TCs (LPSs) ranges from 37 to 46% (2–4%) for the HHR and 24–47% (0–5%) for the EHR events, respectively. These insights on the spatio-temporal variation of heavy and extreme rainfall events can be used in better understanding the characteristics of rainfall extremes in Metro Manila.

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Data Availability

The AWS rainfall data and winds data that were analyzed in this study may be provided upon request at manila@observatory.ph. The list of flood reports are also available upon request from the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) through the following link https://www.foi.gov.ph.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the support from the “High-definition Clean Energy, Climate, and Weather Forecasts for the Philippines” project of the Manila Observatory. Part of this study was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No. 23H00030; PI Jun Matsumoto, 20H01386; PI Yoshiyuki Kakikawa of Kobe University, and 2H04938; PI Kei Yoshimura of the University of Tokyo).

Funding

J.Matsumoto was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No. 23H00030; PI Jun Matsumoto, 20H01386; PI Yoshiyuki Kakikawa of Kobe University, and 2H04938; PI Kei Yoshimura of the University of Tokyo).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, School of Science and Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines

    Enrico Alejandro S. Taña, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza & Jose Ramon T. Villarin

  2. Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University Campus, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines

    Enrico Alejandro S. Taña, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Alyssa Gewell A. Llorin, Julie Mae B. Dado, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Faye Abigail T. Cruz & Jose Ramon T. Villarin

  3. Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan

    Alyssa Gewell A. Llorin

  4. Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan

    Jun Matsumoto

  5. Center for Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Research, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan

    Jun Matsumoto

  6. Typhoon Research and Technology Center, Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Japan

    Jun Matsumoto

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  1. Enrico Alejandro S. Taña
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  8. Jun Matsumoto
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Implementation of the methodology and formal analysis were done by Enrico Alejandro S. Taña, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Alyssa Gewell A. Llorin. Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Julie Mae B. Dado, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, and Jun Matsumoto supervised, reviewed, and edited the manuscript. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Enrico Alejandro Taña and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera.

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Taña, E.A.S., Olaguera, L.M.P., Llorin, A.G.A. et al. Patterns and drivers of heavy and extreme hourly rainfall events over Metro Manila, Philippines. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04899-6

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